One very important consideration is the horrendous record the B1G teams have in out of conference road games at PAC 12 stadiums. According to ESPN Stats, they were 5-17 since 2000 in these situations heading into last season. Then Wisconsin lost at Oregon State, Nebraska lost at UCLA (both as favorites) and Illinois got smoked at ASU. So now 5-20 since 2000.
And I believe it is even much worse in late night games on the West Coast. Unfortunately don't have the exact stats to back it up. However, I was in person to watch Iowa get smoked at ASU in 2004 44-7 and also at Arizona in 2010 34-27 (down 20 at the half), as the #12 and #9 teams in the country at the time. And I remember a lot of discussion at the time of how bad Big Ten teams play in 10:30 pm ET start times at PAC 12 stadiums. They sure looked bad in those games. Also remember Wisconsin hanging on to beat Fresno State by 3 in 2008 when they were a Top Ten team.
Definitely think there is something to this trend as B1G teams have looked horrible in PAC 12 road games. Something to consider.
Picksigma
I appreciate your comments. I am aware of the tough time the BIg 10 has had in games out there.
However, this is NW, this is 2013. Unless, there is some biological clock that prevents Midwestern universities from performing well on the west coast, I don't buy it.
NW is not in class yet. they will arrive in the bay area early. and my guess is that fitz and his players are pissed that they have to play a late game. cal has blamed espn for picking up the late game, but I don't buy it. nw will get back to Chicago later than expected on sunday. they have an early game with Syracuse on Saturday. my guess, knowing what I know about nw, these smart guys will use this slight as a motivation to kick some behind. sure the late return to Chicago will alter their schedule, but with a new coaching staff, new orange qb, and new systems, and playing at Evanston, they will not be looking ahead to the next week and will focus on cal.
nw is an overachieving machine. I am sure cal will get some big plays, but that D of Cal that gave up 224 points in the last 5 games of last year is not going to find their manhood in game 1 against a bunch of methodical smart guys from the Midwest.
NW -6 I locked it in on Saturday...GL this season...
LonghornHoosier
0
Quote Originally Posted by PicksSigma:
One very important consideration is the horrendous record the B1G teams have in out of conference road games at PAC 12 stadiums. According to ESPN Stats, they were 5-17 since 2000 in these situations heading into last season. Then Wisconsin lost at Oregon State, Nebraska lost at UCLA (both as favorites) and Illinois got smoked at ASU. So now 5-20 since 2000.
And I believe it is even much worse in late night games on the West Coast. Unfortunately don't have the exact stats to back it up. However, I was in person to watch Iowa get smoked at ASU in 2004 44-7 and also at Arizona in 2010 34-27 (down 20 at the half), as the #12 and #9 teams in the country at the time. And I remember a lot of discussion at the time of how bad Big Ten teams play in 10:30 pm ET start times at PAC 12 stadiums. They sure looked bad in those games. Also remember Wisconsin hanging on to beat Fresno State by 3 in 2008 when they were a Top Ten team.
Definitely think there is something to this trend as B1G teams have looked horrible in PAC 12 road games. Something to consider.
Picksigma
I appreciate your comments. I am aware of the tough time the BIg 10 has had in games out there.
However, this is NW, this is 2013. Unless, there is some biological clock that prevents Midwestern universities from performing well on the west coast, I don't buy it.
NW is not in class yet. they will arrive in the bay area early. and my guess is that fitz and his players are pissed that they have to play a late game. cal has blamed espn for picking up the late game, but I don't buy it. nw will get back to Chicago later than expected on sunday. they have an early game with Syracuse on Saturday. my guess, knowing what I know about nw, these smart guys will use this slight as a motivation to kick some behind. sure the late return to Chicago will alter their schedule, but with a new coaching staff, new orange qb, and new systems, and playing at Evanston, they will not be looking ahead to the next week and will focus on cal.
nw is an overachieving machine. I am sure cal will get some big plays, but that D of Cal that gave up 224 points in the last 5 games of last year is not going to find their manhood in game 1 against a bunch of methodical smart guys from the Midwest.
NW -6 I locked it in on Saturday...GL this season...
gw: i have informally provided facts to the ohio game, but that is one of my favorite plays of week 1, and will undoubtedly receive a lengthy write up...look for the write up thursday afternoon...ill have it here in this thread.
OHIO +21 if you were unaware of who i like
Thanks JD, I will definitely look for it.
Since you give so much to the forum, I'll throw this out for you to consider if you haven't looked at the game too closely yet, and that is Tulsa +4 at Bowling Green.
I know BG returns a lot of players on defense, but the guys they lost were huge: MAC DPOY Chris Jones, and 3 time All-Mac LB Dwayne Woods; BG also gave up a ton of yards when they played good teams last year - 452 to Toledo and 425 to Kent St. - so their d tended get exposed against quality opposition, which I consider Tulsa to be. The Golden Hurricane, OTOH, will field a balanced offensive attack with a big, mobile QB who can make all the throws; a talented & experienced receiving corps; and two RBs that averaged around 6 yds/carry against FBS competition last year. Tulsa should be able to run and throw with success against BGSU. Tulsa also had impressive road ATS wins last year against Iowa St., Arkansas, Houston, Marshall - they can win on the road. I think this game should at least be a pick 'em; Tulsa should probably be the favorite and has a good opportunity to win the game outright. GL
GW
0
Quote Originally Posted by jdnmoney:
gw: i have informally provided facts to the ohio game, but that is one of my favorite plays of week 1, and will undoubtedly receive a lengthy write up...look for the write up thursday afternoon...ill have it here in this thread.
OHIO +21 if you were unaware of who i like
Thanks JD, I will definitely look for it.
Since you give so much to the forum, I'll throw this out for you to consider if you haven't looked at the game too closely yet, and that is Tulsa +4 at Bowling Green.
I know BG returns a lot of players on defense, but the guys they lost were huge: MAC DPOY Chris Jones, and 3 time All-Mac LB Dwayne Woods; BG also gave up a ton of yards when they played good teams last year - 452 to Toledo and 425 to Kent St. - so their d tended get exposed against quality opposition, which I consider Tulsa to be. The Golden Hurricane, OTOH, will field a balanced offensive attack with a big, mobile QB who can make all the throws; a talented & experienced receiving corps; and two RBs that averaged around 6 yds/carry against FBS competition last year. Tulsa should be able to run and throw with success against BGSU. Tulsa also had impressive road ATS wins last year against Iowa St., Arkansas, Houston, Marshall - they can win on the road. I think this game should at least be a pick 'em; Tulsa should probably be the favorite and has a good opportunity to win the game outright. GL
3 Team Parlay: 1.23 u to win 3.09 u Ohio vs Louisville 16 20 55 Ohio +28.5 ULM vs Oklahoma 23 23 65 ULM +28.5 UNLV vs Minnesota 17 14.5 50 UNLV +21.5
4 Team Parlay: 0.2u to win .989 u Arkansas Pine Bluff vs Arkansas State 45.5 39 APB +47 Buffalo vs Ohio State 33.5 36 61 Buffalo +38.5 ULM vs Oklahoma 23 23 65 ULM +28.5 UNLV vs Minnesota 17 14.5 50 UNLV +21.5
***UPDATED CARD
Kent St-7 on Betonline.ag. Locked in MONSTER PLAY 4u
3 Team Parlay: 1.23 u to win 3.09 u Ohio vs Louisville 16 20 55 Ohio +28.5 ULM vs Oklahoma 23 23 65 ULM +28.5 UNLV vs Minnesota 17 14.5 50 UNLV +21.5
4 Team Parlay: 0.2u to win .989 u Arkansas Pine Bluff vs Arkansas State 45.5 39 APB +47 Buffalo vs Ohio State 33.5 36 61 Buffalo +38.5 ULM vs Oklahoma 23 23 65 ULM +28.5 UNLV vs Minnesota 17 14.5 50 UNLV +21.5
***UPDATED CARD
Kent St-7 on Betonline.ag. Locked in MONSTER PLAY 4u
you could have purchased it at betonline.ag in late june when i posted it at 6.5
now, not available.
Jimmy, Kent was bet on Betonline as well.
its been off at 5dimes for 2 days.
I do not handicap these "extra" games at all, but BM now has Kent up at -14.5. I'm thinking of throwing Kent in a couple of open parlays I have, but really not sure. Would love to hear your thoughts on the -14.5-point line. If you really think it's that strong of a play, I may follow.
0
Quote Originally Posted by jdnmoney:
you could have purchased it at betonline.ag in late june when i posted it at 6.5
now, not available.
Jimmy, Kent was bet on Betonline as well.
its been off at 5dimes for 2 days.
I do not handicap these "extra" games at all, but BM now has Kent up at -14.5. I'm thinking of throwing Kent in a couple of open parlays I have, but really not sure. Would love to hear your thoughts on the -14.5-point line. If you really think it's that strong of a play, I may follow.
Since you give so much to the forum, I'll throw this out for you to consider if you haven't looked at the game too closely yet, and that is Tulsa +4 at Bowling Green.
I know BG returns a lot of players on defense, but the guys they lost were huge: MAC DPOY Chris Jones, and 3 time All-Mac LB Dwayne Woods; BG also gave up a ton of yards when they played good teams last year - 452 to Toledo and 425 to Kent St. - so their d tended get exposed against quality opposition, which I consider Tulsa to be. The Golden Hurricane, OTOH, will field a balanced offensive attack with a big, mobile QB who can make all the throws; a talented & experienced receiving corps; and two RBs that averaged around 6 yds/carry against FBS competition last year. Tulsa should be able to run and throw with success against BGSU. Tulsa also had impressive road ATS wins last year against Iowa St., Arkansas, Houston, Marshall - they can win on the road. I think this game should at least be a pick 'em; Tulsa should probably be the favorite and has a good opportunity to win the game outright. GL
GW
ill be betting on several mac teams this weekend
kent
ohio
toledo
northern illinois
i just dont know if i can go against BG...I BACK THE MAC!!
no but in all seriousness, Tulsa should be able to run the football, And i cannot explain the line movement. i think i might pass, as i have several thursday plays already...
BOL guy, i like the feedback.
0
Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:
Thanks JD, I will definitely look for it.
Since you give so much to the forum, I'll throw this out for you to consider if you haven't looked at the game too closely yet, and that is Tulsa +4 at Bowling Green.
I know BG returns a lot of players on defense, but the guys they lost were huge: MAC DPOY Chris Jones, and 3 time All-Mac LB Dwayne Woods; BG also gave up a ton of yards when they played good teams last year - 452 to Toledo and 425 to Kent St. - so their d tended get exposed against quality opposition, which I consider Tulsa to be. The Golden Hurricane, OTOH, will field a balanced offensive attack with a big, mobile QB who can make all the throws; a talented & experienced receiving corps; and two RBs that averaged around 6 yds/carry against FBS competition last year. Tulsa should be able to run and throw with success against BGSU. Tulsa also had impressive road ATS wins last year against Iowa St., Arkansas, Houston, Marshall - they can win on the road. I think this game should at least be a pick 'em; Tulsa should probably be the favorite and has a good opportunity to win the game outright. GL
GW
ill be betting on several mac teams this weekend
kent
ohio
toledo
northern illinois
i just dont know if i can go against BG...I BACK THE MAC!!
no but in all seriousness, Tulsa should be able to run the football, And i cannot explain the line movement. i think i might pass, as i have several thursday plays already...
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