NCAA week 1

Freaks  Whackjobs  Pathological liars Crusty Covers Veterans  New Fresh Meat

Welcome to another season of MEGALOCKS - Where we make the impossible - possible.

Seriously - looking forward to another great season. Hoping we can find some winners - enjoy some laughs - and to be kind to our fellow posters

the partial MEGALOCKS Manifesto.....particularly for those who are new

1. Our primary focus is providing brief analysis and write-ups on as many games as possible....Will provide selections as well - but if you just want picks - there are lots of guys on here that do a great job so focus on their threads. While our success rate has always been very good you are never far away from getting humbled.

2. Given #1 above - Because we provide our research and analysis and thought process surrounding games - you can either follow it and make a bet - take it as information only - or go the opposite way of what we think if you disagree with the analysis provided. WE STRIVE TO PROVIDE HARD HITTING ANALYSIS WITH OVERUSE OF CAPITAL LETTERS AND EMOTICONS WHILE INFUSING A DASH OF HUMOR

3. Discussion always welcome !

4. We do not post lines from make-believe land. We post as soon as we wager (within reason) and will use a line from at least one reputable book. Do not see the point in posting a line nobody can get. Or worse - a line that never existed anywhere in the solar system. Minor exception - when we post our EARLY TASTERS  on Sundays you better be at your betting screens because those puppies move fast.

5. Our staff works hard for you. They search the globe for every possible nugget of information to help you with your handicapping. Our senior correspondents Hot Carl, Chuck Buckley and John Cocktoastin are hard at work 23.5 hours a day.

GL to everyone this year. Should be a lot of fun once again !

MEGA

thanks guys  BOL this yr

S Carolina 3 UNC (64)

Megalocks line SC -2

Hard for us to trust either team in this one...SC starts a new QB - the highest rated QB Spurrier has recruited mind you - but that combined with a D that gave up over 30 pts a game last yr makes us wonder ?? They did not provide much resistance to teams that could MATRICULATE is the passing game or frankly even run the ball well (212 ypg rush D)....On the flip side - their D looks stronger and more experienced on paper - but I will have to let the Gamecock experts comment on that...Hard to get that opening Tex AM debacle out of our heads from 2014...As far as UNC - we wanna talk about bad D? well yes they return 7 starters and add DC Chizik but WTF 39 ppg given up last yr and seem very young on the DL....The offense will be sick....but can that D hold up on the road vs SEC? Front 7 very sketchy.

Summary: No lean on side or total. Best play might be looking at the SC TT under as the implied number is 33.5.

There does not seem to be much value and just too much uncertainty for us. Just not sure how much better SC will be or can be.

Oklahoma St 23 C Michigan (54)

Megalocks line 18

Welcome Chips fan to the John Bonamego era. Never been a head coach - but 16 yrs in NFL as ST coach....waaaaaat? In any event - when we last saw these guys - they almost completed the most incredible comeback we have seen - down 49-14 in the 4th Q outscored WK 34-CACK in the 4th Q with the last TD on the last play in an insane play that must be watched multiple times on Youtube ....This yr new HC and down to 9 RS with loss of CB Greer...1-8L9 ATS as home dog...We see a step down this yr just not sure how far.......Okla St? Last yr we had almost given up on our MIKE GUNDY MAN CRUSH  only to see them finish strong beating Sooners and Washington....They are a much more exp team and Gundy's ATS joocy record cannot be denied....Fun but somewhat irrelevant stat - last 5 Okie St openers....65-17 61-34 84-CACK 21-3 and last yr close loss to Fla St but a nice easy cover....Have to believe they will crush.....Problem? We think this line creeping to 23 and prob 24 by game time is a bit high....we likely have our numbers wrong but gonna take a pass on this one right now no doubt they should smoke them but would have wanted a number closer to 17.

Summary: No lean on side or total at these numbers.

mega

Arizona 31.5 UTSA (52.5)

Megalocks line 32

Not going to bite on this one.....Arizona impled team total of 42ish seems about right...OFF should be scary this yr and HC hopes to play even faster this yr....Not been a great HF ATS last 4 yrs but get a reloading UTSA team that we rated really really poorly - but apparently we got it close to the experts in vegas....2013 Arizona beat UTSA at home 38-13 as big favs last yr almost lost outright on road at UTSA but this UTSA group is much more in line talent wise and experience wise to the team the joined FBS/Div 1/Real Teams in 2011....UTSA will start (it appears) THE Blake Bogenschutz at QB who has looked good in practice and ok in limited action LY...Not sure how the game in AZ will go with an inexperienced team around him - but they do have a fine RB J Williams and a D that is very well coached....Just no way to play them in this spot - according to Steele #128 in experience and #125 in OL experience in particular.....Can see this one being a 30 pt lead in 4th Q with garbage time deciding the ATS outcome.

Summary. No lean on side or total at these numbers seems about right. Wacko action play may be UTSA TT over 10.5 as Az gave up 400Y 4 str years and its not like they play super disciplined football.

mega

(Sorry guys still nothing played on Thursday yet - do really like one Thursday game just hoping for a tiny line movement.)

Quote Originally Posted by mbiddy:

GL this year you bunch of sick freaks

 GL this yr ! make some paper buddy

Utah 5.5 Michigan (46)

Megalocks line - 6

Ah the memories........Went to the Michigan/Utah game last yr and had some awesome tailgating and family time....Also had a 425734897890 STAR UTAH STEAM PLAY that came through....The heavens opened up midway through the 2nd half and if you have ever seen a green and purple sky and wondered WTF could happen - we found out .

As much of a D-Bag as Harbaugh is - and maybe the #1 D-Bag in NCAA football - we love to see him there to hopefully create some competition for the JUGGERNAUT that is Ohio St....Now it will take some time - but we actually like this Michigan team - especially the defense...and to be honest...after the Minn game last yr which topped off their first 3 loss September ever - they were 4-3 and played some decent football...gave up 311Y per game and the -16 in turnovers just killed them all year....that and a putrid QB......No QB named yet - May be Jake the Snake from Iowa or Sugar Shane Morris....Don't think it matters should be a conservative game plan on offense with good D......We would have loved to get 7 pts but obviously that was a pipe dream...Michigan action should keep this one down below 7.

Our original lean was Michigan - but realistically - Utah is just a well coached team and while they have a new OC and DC...They have a QB and RB we really like and they led the NCAA in sacks last yr - lost some guys - but they always reload....Steele rated them as the #1 ST unit last yr and they should be good again with a great P/K combo. Bottom line? Should be a really good game and while taking Michigan and the points was our original idea - Utah is just too experienced and balanced for a Michigan team to play the first game and get a tough road cover.

Summary. No lean on side or total at this number.

mega

Thx guys   appreciate it

Mugg - yes it seems we are on the same page with Arizona - just tough to trust with the big number....My issue is that I rated UTSA soooooo bad on paper that I just cant bring myself to play them GL

Train  You crazy #ratbastard