NCAA week 1

thanks  guys ! appreciate it

Bizzo - I hear ya and tend to agree. While the game screams "under" the total is also pretty low so while I lean that way - probably will pass on total and cheer for your under

Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

1. UNC doesn't not play on the road as this is a neutral site game @ the Carolina Panthers Stadium. 

2. I don't think "SEC" en-capsulizes the USC offense this year. I've watched some of Spurrier's post practice interviews and he doesn't sound too confident about his QB play or WRs. They have so little experience at both positions I really don't see how this passing game is a real threat no matter what defense they are playing. Most of their best players offensively (QB Thompson, LT Corey Robinson, LG AJ Cann, RB Mike Davis, WR Shaq Roland, WR Nick Jones, WR Damiere Byrd) are all gone so in a debut game for the vast majority of the offense - SC just doesn't scare me as a handicapper. [Sorry mega - I just think Spurrier is getting WAY too much credit for past results with this years' team. Not just you - it's everyone quite frankly]

3. Not really sure why one of the worst DLs in D1-A football (121st in nation in sacks, 124th in TFLs) is getting this much respect for automatically being better this year (talking about SC). Yeah I get that a lot of their players return - but they weren't ever good last year. Maybe they were just overrated coming into high school and the development/coaching staffs at SC aren't as good as everyone thinks. I'm not saying I know - I'm just asking why give a team with so little production the benefit of the doubt. Where was the production - ever - last season?

4. The big difference in this game is that the UNC offense proved themselves last year, return all 11 starters, and people aren't giving them credit for just how young they were last year. 3 of top 4 WRs were sophs - 4 of 5 starting OL were sophs. There is nowhere for this offense to go but up - and that's why UNC +3 makes it on my card.

 GL this year

Awesome post buddy - thanks

1. I knew the game was in Charlotte - have "0" for home field in my spreadsheet but my comment was a mistake and I apologize that was sloppy.

2. As per my write-up - I can't trust either team - and in particular - SC as I noted the best bet in that game might be SC TT under.

3. I am not smart enough to figure this one out. how good or bad is the new SC QB ? How much better will their D be ? How much can UNC improve on D (gave up 39/g) given their young DL and suspect front 7 ? Just soooo much I don't know yet about these teams but I cant wait to watch.

4. If I had a gun to my head - pick the ATS winner or leave Covers forever - I would side with UNC but it would be a total guess on my part.

5. I just spent another great summer vacation on the ocean in NC so if anything I am biased to pick them !!

Best of luck this yr...mega

TCU 14 Minnesota (57.5)

Megalocks line - 17

No point stating the obvious in any large degree but TCU should be a wrecking ball this yr...Devastating offense...relatively inexperienced on D esp at LB but the DL should be great and the DBs were rated #1 by Steele last yr (this yr return 2/4 starters)....Have to believe they will want to leave nothing to chance this year and knock the crap out of everyone - but like we always say - just because you want to do it - does not mean that you will....We have TCU/Ohio St rated co #1 right now in our ratings - so we ask ourselves - should it really be a problem to beat Minnesota by more than 14 ?

Minnesota is one of those teams you have to respect right now. ATS you often ask - how did they cover? I mean the last 3 years they were a bowl team yet in every one of those years they gave up more yards than they gained themselves. The QB play has often been comical. Yet LY they popped 50 on Iowa - only lost to Ohio St by 7 late in the yr at home (a 240582340 star MEGALOCKS loser) beat Nebraska on the road and covered at Wisconsin. So we did some extra digging....Last yr they lost at TCU 30-7 and while you could say TCU got up early and laid down since the HCs are friends - Minn QB was playing hurt....TCUs longest scoring drive was 51 yards....TCU threw the ball more than they ran in the 2nd half.....Now this probably means nothing so we aint saying just saying.......Now Minnesota QB is not great but he is very annoying to stop - crafty runner 10TDs rushing and Minn might be able to run a bit....D should be decent again - and here is the thing - you matchup guys can tell me if we are on crack but Minn in many circles has the #1 rated set of DBs in the Big 10 - good corners....TCU a bit banged up at WR - can Minn do enough to slow TCU down at home in front of a sellout crowd to at least keep it interesting for a while?

Summary: Lean TCU since we actually see perceived value according to our ratings (TCU s/b -17) but as noted in our Minn analysis we see enough there that makes it a wait and see on an official play.

Duke 9 Tulane (47.5)

Megalocks line - Duke -6

We lean to Tulane at this price - especially if somehow we could get 10 points. Now this is a prime example of how we post things up in the MEGALOCKS thread - while it may be confusing to always say - well we like them but........We are trying to show how we try and only play when we feel confident AND there is line value....We see line value BUT we are not confident because Duke is another team we do not like fading....According to M Law Playbook Duke HC is 45-30-5 ATS that is pretty amazing - you obviously exclude the pushes so 45/75 is 60% long term and while you could say they are "due" to not cover....We need to feel confident to fade them and we do not wk 1 with Tulane....Duke is also on a 9-1 SU run on the road and while they are starting a new QB and losing WRs....They are so well coached and balanced that we need to see how this game shakes out....They are down to 5 RS on D losing CB and MLB so that is not going to help them either........As far as Tulane they finally rid themselves of 8 yr senior Nick Montana and Tanner Lee looks decent - just not sure how much they can improve this yr off the 16 ppg they put up last year....They were 0-4 ATS as a home dog in the new stadium last yr - have horrid ST - and we are not sure about this HC. FWIW - Duke beat em 47-13 last yr at Duke.

Summary. Lean to Tulane. Will monitor line and consider play if it pops to +10. (highly unlikely)

mega

Ohio 8.5 Idaho (55)

Megalocks line - Ohio -8

We are very high on Ohio in MACtion ACTion this year - especially the defense and running game....Do not see much value up here though laying almost DD in a road opener before playing Marshall in the Battle for the Bell....A game that Ohio won 3 straight times before Marshall took them to a pound-me-in-the-azz prison last yr and won huge.....The rotating QB crap still bothers us and it appears that will be the case again this wk at Idaho...Not sure they have enough firepower to bury Idaho - and Idaho team that should be improved this yr (how can they not?) adding JUCOs and showed a lot of improvement on offense last yr in fact passed the ball pretty well at Ohio last yr - over 350 yds - and only losing 36-24....Not sure Idaho will get #1 receiver from 2013 back Epps seems very hush hush top secret some say yes - some say he will do something else dumb to get kicked of the team......Fun factoid - dug this up from Steele or a blog somewhere - get this Idaho was 1-10 last yr - yet they had more first downs than their opponents by a wide margin - 258-225.....So what does this all mean? Spread seems about right - a lot of road pts to lay - and hard to trust a quasi-scumbag head coach with a 2-21 SU record although for the record we will likely be playing both of these teams multiple times in 2015.

Summary. No lean on side or total.

mega

Vandy pk WKU (65)

Megalocks line - pk em

Dedicated MEGALOCKS subscribers know that we rarely pick games involving crazy high scoring teams with no defense ATS...Just so unpredictable....We try and focus on the team totals looking to go over - a prime example was last yr WK in the bowl game seemingly had 49 pts before people were in their seats - we took the cash and went yacht shopping while others sweated out the cover.......so..........

We have the fair line at a pk em....Can't fault anyone picking either TT to go over as the implied numbers are essentially 32.5/32.5.

WK average score last yr was 44-40....Their D was putrid but their offense set the record for most total yards in a season - almost 7000 by a wide margin...4800Y QB, 1500Y RB, solid WR......What worries us about WK besides their D is essentially a mural with guys painted on it - is that they are a notch down on the road - I mean QB Doughty is basically a God - at home he as not even thrown an int in the last 300+ attempts - but on the road WK is hard to back....2-4 SU last yr.....2-5 ATS including bowl game....just a sampling of their recent true road games....blown out 59-10 at LT...lost to FAU....lost to MTSU....lost to Illinois....2013....lost to Troy....ULL....S Alabama...etc....So while they could smoke Vandy they cannot be trusted yet ATS......Vandy? Well the battle is still on at QB although it looks like McCrary - Vandy started an FBS high 4 Qbs last yr ....you would think they were Utah st or something....Have to believe they will have more stability and they are much more experienced although losing their LT will not help....Entire 2 deep of DBs returns.....Tough to call out Vandy as a play here but something tells us the running game is gonna do some damage and they probably wont turn it over 48 times like the temple opener last yr......Final thoughts - WK looks loaded and the only unwinnable game appears to be at LSU....keep in mind WK has a huge conf revenge game vs La Tech only 5 DAYS after the Vandy game....yes the Vandy game is big - but the LT is bigger.

Summary - no lean on side or total although could support any play involving an over or TT over.

mega

Nice work McGuire  that is some solid intel.

I do remember reading about Sirk and his rushing ability - he had 8 rushing TD last yr in limited action thx for reminding me....I just get the feeling the yds are almost dead even but somehow Duke wins by 10 ya know?

  McGuire

First play

Hawaii +8 

Megalocks line - Colorado -5

We go over this every year. Betting on a Hawaii home game in any way shape or form is hazardous to your health. At some point you WILL want to stab yourself. We could give you dozens of examples but whatever....If you want just one example from last yr - Youtube the final minute of UNLV at Hawaii  Logic is supended, cheating is encouraged, miracles happen - anything and everything other than an appearance of the baby Jesus wearing a Hawaii jersey and a spaceship landing with the cast members of Who's The Boss occurred in that final minute.

On to the game. We know nobody will like the pick but we are making it for the following reasons. Any one item can be argued but as we always say - It is the collection of these factors together that makes us play.

1. Colorado is 3-35 SU L38 away. 16-35L51 away. Have not covered as a RF since 2007.

2. Colorado D while adding new borderline pyscho DC Leavitt still are lacking in talent. Gave up 35 TD last yr vs 3 intand have given up 39 38 46 ppg last 3 yrs. Do not sack the QB. Missing beefy stud NT Tupou in middle of line. Sure this team will play some good games at home and score some but on the road wk 1 laying over a TD

3. Hawaii? MEGALOCKS fav LAKALAKA is back at RB...missed some time late last yr - have legit WR...and a transfer QB from USC - who while not great - is a legit throwing QB who will help Hawaii MATRICULATE in the passing game and be balanced....They will move the ball.....Their D improved quite a bit last yr and the secondary has some nice pieces.....Their run game also improved quite a bit last yr up to 149/game which is great for them.

What worries us? Well Colorado played some close games vs good teams last yr. At home for the most part is where they are scary tho...I suppose their D could be a lot better but doubt it. Also Hawaii QB could be a disaster but they still have Woolsey who is ok.

As always - play safe. I gigantic write-up guarantees nothing

mega

** 16-35 L51 ATS away ** Colorado

Also Re: Hawaii....looking at home games - they are not great but competitive vs their 1-17 SU run on the road

Hawaii last home games

beat UNLV - so what - but a win

lost to Utah St by 21 - expected

lost by 8 to Nevada - bowl team

beat Wyoming - a win is a win

beat N Iowa - ok

lost to Oregon st by 8 - respectable

lost to Washington by 1 - good

beat Army - ok

lost to SD St in ot - good

lost to Col St by 7 - respectable

lost SJ St by 10 - whatever

covered as big dog to fresno - good

covered as big dog to usc

Conclusion? well they are not a good team but neither is Colorado and the only real clunker last 2 yrs was vs Utah st and their D is better than the 85 Bears.

Will have all the rest of the Thurs/Friday games up today

Baylor 35.5 SMU (75)

Megalocks line 35

Not much to say here. We have the fair line right about where it is now. If you managed to jump on this puppy and get it early - congrats - you are more than likely sitting on free money. Baylor should be able to name the score and we cannot justify a bet on SMU....But it was only 45-0 last yr despite a 574-67 yd edge and SMU will be better this yr - got better last yr and even finished with a road win. We see QB Davis running for a few first downs and keeping Baylor off balance at times but it should be a senseless slaughter nonetheless. Maybe the SMU experience of seeing these guys before matters? Uh. Well Baylor has covered 11 straight vs SMU. We DO smell an under in here somewhere - the implied score is essentially 55-20. Jeez. Taking a TT over 55 means you have big ......Baylor D is gonna be better finding it hard to believe SMU will score 20. hmmmm.

Summary. No play on side. Best play for those who want action may sadly be under 75 or SMU TT under. Baylor -35 seems about right.

mega

Quote Originally Posted by blowoutgm:

Welcome back Mega! I am thinking the Arizona team total over may be my Blumpkin special this week! Good luck this year!!

only a fool passes on the blumpkin special