NCAA week 1

always a good read and more importantly solid picks over the years....BOL this season buddy

thanks a lot guys  much appreciated. great to see so many veterans hanging around and some new guys ready to dominate

nos -  one of the all time greats

longhorn - thanks for the insight   So I guess you agree with my take on the SMU TT under  You are right I did not fully grasp the intangibles - and hey - nobody likes an underdog like us - but we are staying far far away from SMU. If we got the line early like some guys we would have throttled Baylor - now I am just reviewing the other games first....The 35 and change will always be there - maybe 37 at worst - if I get itchy can stab at it then. Best of luck

Georgia St 6.5 Charlotte (74)

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Another game our ratings seem to agree on. Missed the 4s early on may have taken a stab then....

Don't know much about Charlotte - they on paper appear well coached and experienced with some offensive ability - but this is their first FBS game so who knows ?

As far as Georgia St - Well the current HC is 1-23 if we do the math properly and they gave up 43/game last yr and never even sniff the QB let alone sack him....Hard to lay almost a TD here....Now they do have a very good QB and should score some - and the D has to be better.....Just have to watch this one.

Summary. No lean on side. Would have been interested closer to a 3 pt spread. Total looks a bit high at first glance - but then again - the last time we saw G St they lost 54-31 to a team who's offense was beyond pure filth. So will pass on the total for now as well.

mega

Baylor -35 does look scary but I believe Baylor covers. Also take 1st half Baylor as well.

next play

UCF TT under 31

write-up coming

MEGALOCKS true story - was about to hit +17 a couple days ago - had my post ready - double check the line - it is 16.5. Would not post 17 not fair - Decided to wait for UCF TT - woke up - 31.5 - get my post ready make a beverage - moves to 31.....faaaack. Just do not like posting numbers that disappear quickly so 31 it is.

UCF reload on the offensive side of the ball - no returning receiver with more than 135 yds....Run game is strength - QB had 14 INT....D down to 3 RS so FIU should be able to move the ball some and have some time of possession.....FIU played some decent football last yr and their record was deceiving - scoring offense improved on a % basis #1 in NCAA and they had 31 sks allowing a respectable 24 pts and change on D per game....FIU improved on the ground last yr and should be able to MATRICULATE with stud TE Jonnu Smith. We prefer the team total to the +16 since we still win on 27-10, 24-6, 30-9 etc...ha

GL playaaas. mega

Sparty 18.5 W Michigan (58.5)

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Don't think anyone can love betting on Sparty as much as we do - made us a lot of kachingas  in the past - and that fluke cover in the Baylor game last yr was the cherry on top of that cake....

We like them again - but think the spread is a bit high.

Sparty new starters at RB/WR but the QB is all-world and the OL is excellent....that is the only reason we have not slammed this one yet - that and their DL vs WM OL matchup - but given all that - its not a pick em - and we still think 18+ is decent value.....Mich St also has Oregon on deck which may or may not matter - but it cannot help the cause if they are up late by 20 or so with the backups in - WM good enough to score garbage points in that scenario.

WM ? Well they improved last yr on offense from 17-34 ppg....on D from 35 to 25 ppg - and in sacks from 7-29....and added the #1 MAC recruiting class - of course that does not matter for this game - but just saying they are moving in the right direction and regardless of this game score - we LOVE us some BRONCOS this yr so tasty....Decent D - very good QB - returning MACtion offensive POY at RB Franklin had 24 rushing TD waaaaaaaaaaaat? and have at least 2 excellent WR esp Davis who caught 15 td LY.....Mich St lost LB Davis which cant help but they do have great depth.

Summary - STRONG lean W Michigan - keeping an eye to add as a play just need to look at it a bit longer would want at least 17.5.

Plays so far

Hawaii +8

UCF TT under 31

Strong lean

WM +18.5

Leans - listed throughout the thread

NEXT UP....last couple of Friday games then Big 10

thanks everyone for stopping in really appreciate it

jpurdy - I cannot wait for the first instalment of Crowd Will Be Rocking Guy

Boise 11.5 Washington (56.5)

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Mugg - if you have input would love it

We have a very strong lean to Boise in this one....Just sizing up all the betting options you know how bad we are at picking DD fav  so need to do a bit more digging when I have time

Boise D is going to be excellent. They were drilling everyone at the end of last yr capped off by a win over Az in the bowl game....The OL should also be freaking great so the loss of star RB Ajayijijjiyiyi and his 28 rushing TD should be minimized - Not thrilled about the inexperience at QB but its not like they got stellar QB play last yr - Overall this team looks ready to crush again

Washington looks like a team we will fade at least early on....now down to 8 RS with the only RS on the OL out - inexperience at QB and a reload at DL and those 52 sacks from last yr? Not this yr....Lost their 2 TD K-O return guy....Just overall do not like the look of this team and when is the last time an inexperienced DD dog did not get their teeth kicked in at Boise?

Washington 8 wins last yr were vs haw ewash illin ore st ga st cal col and wash st? and keep in mind Petersen's last 3 yr at Boise ATS he was 5-8 6-7 6-7 and LY Harsin was 8-6 FWIW

Summary. Strong lean Boise - not sure how we are gonna play this game yet stay tuned.

mega

Illinois 14 Kent (52)

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Oh those wacky Illini. Coach toasted a week before the season.  Apparently a lot of the players had serious issues with him - he was doing everything but sticking players in a safe at the bottom of a river as punishment for being late for meetings

Now we feel they will be fired up to prove themselves - problem is - laying DD with this team not a good idea usually - good QB and some weapons but #1 1000 receiver out and D given up 35,34 last 2 yrs even tho they made a BG last yr they cannot be trusted yet....and who doesn't love Jihad Ward?......Kent returns 17 starters and has a decent QB and a pretty good D that returns its top 11 tacklers ....Last yr they finished strong relatively speaking losing by 10 to decent Toledo and BG squads then beating Akron.....If Kent D was garbage we might look at an Illini first half play or TT over but as likely as they are to lead big early - if they #shitthebed early - Kent will get brave and make it a game....too close to call

summary - no lean at all

mega

thx guys

Penn St 7 Temple (38)

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Thought we might get value on this puppy (Temple) but missed any early number higher than this so think we will take a pass....Total is really low - and we hate playing NCAA games under any total lower than 44....Teams seemingly get dozens of possessions each and we don't have the stomach for that anymore....38 just not that many pts

mind you Temple D was T25 and returns basically everyone - Penn St was #2 in yds allowed D.....Both QBs have a history of brain farts.....Certainly feels like a 3-2 game....ultimately b/c the line is exactly where we thought gonna pass.

Meaningless tidbit  - could be a lookahead of all things for temple have big conf game with cincy next wk....99% joking but 1% serious

Summary - no leanage

mega

WAHOO !  great to see you hope you are doing well.

WAHOO = G.O.A.T making machine !