Nice grabs TD21! That under keeps dropping. GL this yr
Was fun researching Husky QB race listened to a local podcast and they are essentially certain FR will at least start and actually want him in there regardless so they can build with him. My guess is Petersen will have packages for other guys. Just think this Boise D is loaded and even on offense will prob be conservative with new starter.
Da kid. Hmm. That is a good point. I am staying away from that game but I see what you are saying. My biggest worry about taking game over is the Baylor D looks pretty athletic and experienced. If SMU only gets 14 then Baylor needs 60 for 74. Possible but I just dont know. Go with your gut. GL
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Nice grabs TD21! That under keeps dropping. GL this yr
Was fun researching Husky QB race listened to a local podcast and they are essentially certain FR will at least start and actually want him in there regardless so they can build with him. My guess is Petersen will have packages for other guys. Just think this Boise D is loaded and even on offense will prob be conservative with new starter.
Da kid. Hmm. That is a good point. I am staying away from that game but I see what you are saying. My biggest worry about taking game over is the Baylor D looks pretty athletic and experienced. If SMU only gets 14 then Baylor needs 60 for 74. Possible but I just dont know. Go with your gut. GL
McGuire. Was debating EXACTLY same thing. I took team total only because I have seen so many decent teams get blown out there things just snowball in that stadium. Defense. ST. Turnovers. I think under is also solid tho just only make one pick /game to manage my risk.
From researching it appears Huskies will be decent - better as season goes on maybe - and lack star power on offense. At least experienced on paper talent. Locals seem to think team more deep than top-heavy like last yr. GL !
Read this on a UW fan site: "This version of UW Football features just 18 scholarship players who fall into the category of "junior" or "senior". That is a pretty small number that is further reduced when you exclude the two JC transfers (Nik Little, Tony Rodriguez) and the three special teams only players (Ryan Masel, Cameron Van Winkle, Koree Durkee) who count in those ranks."
UW is really inexperienced. I'm not saying the local blogs/writers are wrong - because UW has had fairly consistent top 35-25 recruiting classes - but their fans really have no clue how good their team is if they are talking up how good their 3rd string is with nothing to show for it in 1st string.
Was thinking about this game a lot on way home from the gym, and the more I think about it the more I like the total under. We can both agree BSt will likely win - correct? So how is their strategy not to ground + pound? On top of this - let's say they have a 10+ point lead early in 4Q - we can both agree their coaching staff will go the conservative route and look to kill the clock with long possession, run the ball drives?
I highly doubt BSt is a team that is going to sling it around the field and put up a lot of passing yards in this contest...which means they will have no problem burning clock. Boise State was an over machine last year (7 of last 8), but their QB play was excellent and likely won't be there again (I mean when teams refuse to name a starting QB - I take that as a coaching staff's admission that they don't have a guy they can trust in passing game). Grant Hendrick completed a high % and was outstanding down the stretch - 19 TDs 5 INTs in last 9 games. 8.7 ypa for the the year 69% over 3,900 pass yards...BState isn't the same type of team this season.
I think Boise will trust their OL, open the field horizontally - not vertically - and use a ball control offense this season. I don't blame you for attacking the Washington TT especially for a D as good as Boise's.
As far as UW's defense goes - I got this from their 2015 sb nation preview:
"If there's a bright side, it's that the balance between whole and sum of parts can change. And while this is small consolation, all of last year's second string is back, and there will be two Petersen recruiting classes in circulation. And despite last year's issues, coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski is a smart guy with good defenses on his record (Boise State ranked between second and 11th in Def. S&P+ each year between 2010-12).
This is a long way of saying I don't expect too significant a drop. The problem is, it would stretch the bounds of plausibility to suggest that improvement is on the way in 2015."
Going to think this one over and sleep on it. I will definitely make a play either way....but the more I think about it - the more I think both teams will utilize ball control offenses. Boise because they kinda would prefer to trust their defense (think of those great Buccaneers and Ravens teams in 2000s) and limit turnovers - and UW because they don't really have a choice if they don't have a QB. If UW wants to sling it around and end up inefficient - then they risk having a tired defense in 2H and letting the game get out of hand.
Interesting game regardless.
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
GL D8 !
McGuire. Was debating EXACTLY same thing. I took team total only because I have seen so many decent teams get blown out there things just snowball in that stadium. Defense. ST. Turnovers. I think under is also solid tho just only make one pick /game to manage my risk.
From researching it appears Huskies will be decent - better as season goes on maybe - and lack star power on offense. At least experienced on paper talent. Locals seem to think team more deep than top-heavy like last yr. GL !
Read this on a UW fan site: "This version of UW Football features just 18 scholarship players who fall into the category of "junior" or "senior". That is a pretty small number that is further reduced when you exclude the two JC transfers (Nik Little, Tony Rodriguez) and the three special teams only players (Ryan Masel, Cameron Van Winkle, Koree Durkee) who count in those ranks."
UW is really inexperienced. I'm not saying the local blogs/writers are wrong - because UW has had fairly consistent top 35-25 recruiting classes - but their fans really have no clue how good their team is if they are talking up how good their 3rd string is with nothing to show for it in 1st string.
Was thinking about this game a lot on way home from the gym, and the more I think about it the more I like the total under. We can both agree BSt will likely win - correct? So how is their strategy not to ground + pound? On top of this - let's say they have a 10+ point lead early in 4Q - we can both agree their coaching staff will go the conservative route and look to kill the clock with long possession, run the ball drives?
I highly doubt BSt is a team that is going to sling it around the field and put up a lot of passing yards in this contest...which means they will have no problem burning clock. Boise State was an over machine last year (7 of last 8), but their QB play was excellent and likely won't be there again (I mean when teams refuse to name a starting QB - I take that as a coaching staff's admission that they don't have a guy they can trust in passing game). Grant Hendrick completed a high % and was outstanding down the stretch - 19 TDs 5 INTs in last 9 games. 8.7 ypa for the the year 69% over 3,900 pass yards...BState isn't the same type of team this season.
I think Boise will trust their OL, open the field horizontally - not vertically - and use a ball control offense this season. I don't blame you for attacking the Washington TT especially for a D as good as Boise's.
As far as UW's defense goes - I got this from their 2015 sb nation preview:
"If there's a bright side, it's that the balance between whole and sum of parts can change. And while this is small consolation, all of last year's second string is back, and there will be two Petersen recruiting classes in circulation. And despite last year's issues, coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski is a smart guy with good defenses on his record (Boise State ranked between second and 11th in Def. S&P+ each year between 2010-12).
This is a long way of saying I don't expect too significant a drop. The problem is, it would stretch the bounds of plausibility to suggest that improvement is on the way in 2015."
Going to think this one over and sleep on it. I will definitely make a play either way....but the more I think about it - the more I think both teams will utilize ball control offenses. Boise because they kinda would prefer to trust their defense (think of those great Buccaneers and Ravens teams in 2000s) and limit turnovers - and UW because they don't really have a choice if they don't have a QB. If UW wants to sling it around and end up inefficient - then they risk having a tired defense in 2H and letting the game get out of hand.
Truly my favorite thread each year on covers - any sport, anytime, anywhere by any poster. Keep up the great work & GL this season!
Funny upon looking at all the lines for the first time this past weekend - Hawaii was actually the game that popped out at me first. My other one was Mississippi St. so I'll be eagerly awaiting your write-up.
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Truly my favorite thread each year on covers - any sport, anytime, anywhere by any poster. Keep up the great work & GL this season!
Funny upon looking at all the lines for the first time this past weekend - Hawaii was actually the game that popped out at me first. My other one was Mississippi St. so I'll be eagerly awaiting your write-up.
Will have all the rest of the Thurs/Friday games up today
Baylor 35.5 SMU (75)
Megalocks line 35
Not much to say here. We have the fair line right about where it is now. If you managed to jump on this puppy and get it early - congrats - you are more than likely sitting on free money. Baylor should be able to name the score and we cannot justify a bet on SMU....But it was only 45-0 last yr despite a 574-67 yd edge and SMU will be better this yr - got better last yr and even finished with a road win. We see QB Davis running for a few first downs and keeping Baylor off balance at times but it should be a senseless slaughter nonetheless. Maybe the SMU experience of seeing these guys before matters? Uh. Well Baylor has covered 11 straight vs SMU. We DO smell an under in here somewhere - the implied score is essentially 55-20. Jeez. Taking a TT over 55 means you have big ......Baylor D is gonna be better finding it hard to believe SMU will score 20. hmmmm.
Summary. No play on side. Best play for those who want action may sadly be under 75 or SMU TT under. Baylor -35 seems about right.
mega
I agree with you that betting Baylor-35 is risky. I like Baylor 1st H as well as Arizona for the first half. They should both have nice first half leads before throwing in some scrubs.
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Will have all the rest of the Thurs/Friday games up today
Baylor 35.5 SMU (75)
Megalocks line 35
Not much to say here. We have the fair line right about where it is now. If you managed to jump on this puppy and get it early - congrats - you are more than likely sitting on free money. Baylor should be able to name the score and we cannot justify a bet on SMU....But it was only 45-0 last yr despite a 574-67 yd edge and SMU will be better this yr - got better last yr and even finished with a road win. We see QB Davis running for a few first downs and keeping Baylor off balance at times but it should be a senseless slaughter nonetheless. Maybe the SMU experience of seeing these guys before matters? Uh. Well Baylor has covered 11 straight vs SMU. We DO smell an under in here somewhere - the implied score is essentially 55-20. Jeez. Taking a TT over 55 means you have big ......Baylor D is gonna be better finding it hard to believe SMU will score 20. hmmmm.
Summary. No play on side. Best play for those who want action may sadly be under 75 or SMU TT under. Baylor -35 seems about right.
mega
I agree with you that betting Baylor-35 is risky. I like Baylor 1st H as well as Arizona for the first half. They should both have nice first half leads before throwing in some scrubs.
Remember, the investigation into those allegations regarding Beckman keeping players in a safe at the bottom of a river are ongoing. Nothing confirmed either way yet.
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Remember, the investigation into those allegations regarding Beckman keeping players in a safe at the bottom of a river are ongoing. Nothing confirmed either way yet.
Interested in your input on the Tulsa game, that is probably my favorite game of the week, along with Florida International. I was able to grab them at 17, i see it as low as 13 now. Best of luck this season, will be checking in for sure.
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Interested in your input on the Tulsa game, that is probably my favorite game of the week, along with Florida International. I was able to grab them at 17, i see it as low as 13 now. Best of luck this season, will be checking in for sure.
MEGALOCKSthisis the mostwork doneon this forumI'veseenat any time.YouNCAAFyou takea lot of time.I willextend thanks.I beg youthinkis theUCFasCentralFlorida?because mybookmakersis calledCentralFlorida.
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MEGALOCKSthisis the mostwork doneon this forumI'veseenat any time.YouNCAAFyou takea lot of time.I willextend thanks.I beg youthinkis theUCFasCentralFlorida?because mybookmakersis calledCentralFlorida.
See only a couple of -6s and a couple 6.5. Gonna grab it. No time for w-up yet.
mega
This game is a bit of a leap of faith. Then again - what wager isn't ? Tulsa was a dead team walking last year - 3-9 and 2-10 seasons means new HC and Blankenturd out the door....His previous 2 seasons were 8-5 11-3 so it appears he took adv of Graham's work and let it go to potty....Nevertheless - new HC is Baylor OC...Bill Young returns at DC....There is more excitement around the program now and the good news is that the exciting offense installed should work given they have some nice tools - a 3000Y QB - 2 deep WR core including 2 studs - exp and deep WR core....exp OL...As far as their D - well it was potentially the worst in their recorded history - or in the last 25 yrs anyway - more exp this yr and they do not need to be great guys - just make it back to the high 20s/low 30s per game for now and they could double last yr's win total.
We have Fla Atl rated lower than most - new HC last yr Partridge led them to a 3-9 record including 0-7 SU on the road and while they have had a good ATS road dog record lately - we take the position they are gonna lose this puppy - and if they do - not worried about the six points - I mean they are 18-53 Last 10 yrs SU at home including with some decent teams.....They have a decent QB but lack talent at WR and RB...They OL looks like a problem only 1 RS and had issues trying to find the right combo during practice...DL looks solid but back 7 not so much - their DBs look very weak and Tulsa should be able to MATRICULATE at will on those boys...Vegas expects them to score 36 or so and just do not see FA keeping up. Added bonus ? FAU won 50-21 last yr. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
GL mega
0
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
adding
Tulsa -6 (B-Online)
(detailed explanation later)
See only a couple of -6s and a couple 6.5. Gonna grab it. No time for w-up yet.
mega
This game is a bit of a leap of faith. Then again - what wager isn't ? Tulsa was a dead team walking last year - 3-9 and 2-10 seasons means new HC and Blankenturd out the door....His previous 2 seasons were 8-5 11-3 so it appears he took adv of Graham's work and let it go to potty....Nevertheless - new HC is Baylor OC...Bill Young returns at DC....There is more excitement around the program now and the good news is that the exciting offense installed should work given they have some nice tools - a 3000Y QB - 2 deep WR core including 2 studs - exp and deep WR core....exp OL...As far as their D - well it was potentially the worst in their recorded history - or in the last 25 yrs anyway - more exp this yr and they do not need to be great guys - just make it back to the high 20s/low 30s per game for now and they could double last yr's win total.
We have Fla Atl rated lower than most - new HC last yr Partridge led them to a 3-9 record including 0-7 SU on the road and while they have had a good ATS road dog record lately - we take the position they are gonna lose this puppy - and if they do - not worried about the six points - I mean they are 18-53 Last 10 yrs SU at home including with some decent teams.....They have a decent QB but lack talent at WR and RB...They OL looks like a problem only 1 RS and had issues trying to find the right combo during practice...DL looks solid but back 7 not so much - their DBs look very weak and Tulsa should be able to MATRICULATE at will on those boys...Vegas expects them to score 36 or so and just do not see FA keeping up. Added bonus ? FAU won 50-21 last yr. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Do not see much value here - and frankly was planning on avoiding this one due to Q around UCLA QB - The true freshman Rosen could be really good game one or maybe just average? Who knows....What we do know is that we are super high on UCLA this yr just not sure about laying 20 wk one against a team with a decent D - the same team that played UCLA tough last yr with Hundley at QB at home....UCLA needed 3 defensive TDs in that one....As far as Virginia - HC London must have some pictures of boys in the establishment leaving a motel room with a goat because how he still has a job is beyond us - 18-31 SU and 15-28 ATS wtf ? Cav fans deserve better.
Summary - no leanage
mega
0
UCLA 19.5 Virginia (52.5)
Megalocks line 18
Do not see much value here - and frankly was planning on avoiding this one due to Q around UCLA QB - The true freshman Rosen could be really good game one or maybe just average? Who knows....What we do know is that we are super high on UCLA this yr just not sure about laying 20 wk one against a team with a decent D - the same team that played UCLA tough last yr with Hundley at QB at home....UCLA needed 3 defensive TDs in that one....As far as Virginia - HC London must have some pictures of boys in the establishment leaving a motel room with a goat because how he still has a job is beyond us - 18-31 SU and 15-28 ATS wtf ? Cav fans deserve better.
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and while they have had a good ATS road dog record lately - we take the position they are gonna lose this puppy - and if they do - not worried about the six points - I mean they are 18-53 Last 10 yrs SU at home including with some decent teams.....They have a decent QB but lack talent at WR and RB...They OL looks like a problem only 1 RS and had issues trying to find the right combo during practice...DL looks solid but back 7 not so much - their DBs look very weak and Tulsa should be able to MATRICULATE at will on those boys...Vegas expects them to score 36 or so and just do not see FA keeping up. Added bonus ? FAU won 50-21 last yr. Revenge is a dish best served cold. 
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