NCAA week 1

Old Dominion 4.5 E Michigan (64)

Megalocks line 3

The mob has STEAMED this puppy down from 6 to 4.5 recently - kinda makes sense to us....ODU should be able to score even without their 15000Y career passing QB gone - but the RS Freshman should do fine in that system....It's the D that worries us - 38/game last yr and not sure it will be much better - YES - this is E Michigan - but to lay and kind of points with a D this bad on the road is not our cup of tea....We play EM once or twice a year - believe it or not sometimes make  but sometimes get taken to a pound-me-in-the-azz prison .....They will be tempting again this yr b/c we really like QB Bell who can MATRICULATE at times in the passing game but also run like Carl Lewis except faster....Not much of a supporting cast tho - on D - given up over 40/g last 2 Y and lost key DT O Connor to injury just like it looks like that DL might be a bit better this yr.

Summary. No leanage although a small taster on EM + points would not get you laughed off covers in our view. We wouldn't do it. Just saying.

mega

will look at that game today

Florida 37 New Mex St (57.5)

Megalocks line -31

Took a long look at this one - was hoping to find enough to make a play on NM St but we just cannot do it - we see a bit of perceived value on taking the dog here - but would want 40+ to take a stab. Mostly to have a bigger safety margin - but we also do not want to draw the ire of They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy.

Fact is - we really like Florida. Even the last 3 yrs could find some really nice plays as underdogs. If you look at their schedule last yr - they only lost to Florida St SC in OT Mizz LSU and Bama. That is not bad. We are not trying to be Mr Florida Fan everything is rosy guy - 5+ losses every yr but one since 2009 - but this program is back on the way up IMO and we like it b/c those SEC games are way better when Florida is really good.....It looks like T Harris gets the start at QB but Grier will play as well....A lot of inexperience on offense and leaning new systems but the D should be a brick wall in this one - and if we had to make a wager to win or leave covers forever - we would lean towards Florida scoring 2 TDs on defense/special teams in this one.....Once the snowball starts going down the hill it could get really ugly.

We promise a play on NM St at some point this yr though. They look to be much improved this yr - decent QB - a ton of returning starters...decent OL....and 3rd yr under a good HC....oh by the way have a returning 1100 rusher as well....So....on the one hand we see a pretty bad team that is catching too many points - tempting - but the intangibles sway us away as much as we hate agreeing with irrational They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy....Florida should be pumped up....and when they see the size of some of those NM St defenders they should smell blood....240 pound DL....212 pound LB...making matters worse the DL is very thin due to injuries...final intangible - as crazy as this sounds - we might play NM ST mid yr when Florida is in a bad spot - but it is NM St in the bad spot - big game for them at home next wk to conf opp Georgia St and need to win that one to have any hope of doing anything at all this yr....We think they just take their  from Florida and get as many guys action as they can - and at some point just want to get out of town.

Leanage - sadly, none.

mega 

 but we also do not want to draw the ire of They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy.

Dude - you're the funniest person I've ever read 

Bama 12 Wisconsin (49)

Megalocks line -12

One of the things we love about Covers - besides the emoticons is the non-stop analysis of how Vegas is trapping people. "Why is the Bama line so low" ? Guys. What did you expect ? Bama -52 ? We have Bama rated #3 at 101. Wisconsin at 89. So -12 on a neutral field. We guessed it would finish at -14 and it still might. Point is - just our opinion not a fact - but people see Bama reloading on offense - Q? at QB....Last saw them get their teeth kicked in - people last saw Wisc beat a very good Auburn team. Yes Wisc losing some guys but seriously on a neutral site -12 or -14 or anything close seems about right. Do not think there is an intergalactic conspiracy.

As far as the game - want to see Bama offense with the new QB situation at least one game - the D should be fantastic against a team without a dynamic offense. Not sure you are gonna do much against Bama being Vanilla and that is sort of what they will have to do....Not much threat of a passing game so don't think they can just line up and steamroll....Wisc relatively inexp OL gonna have some difficulty we think.

Summary lean under and lean Wisc TT under but we missed the numbers that we wanted. Going to hope maybe some Scam Tout service releases the OVER to get that puppy moving back up but we doubt it.

mega

Ohio St 13.5 Virginia Tech (52.5)

Megalocks line -8

Going to be hard to play VT in this one even though we see quite a bit of perceived value according to our line.

We are really high on VT this year and think that despite their questionable at times QB play - the D will be potentially back to 2008/2009 levels were they surrendered around 16 ppg. The problem is twofold a) Ohio St is freaking ridiculous on offense. And we know that Cardale or Barrett are fantastic options...and B Miller can be used any way they want if they get bored of using their sick RBs....b) Ohio St D is probably a lot better than last yr when they played VT - even if Bosa does not play - last 2 times their D took the field they beat Wisc 59-CACK and only gave up 20 to Oregon. Actually lets make it threefold - c) on paper it seems that VT will have the same old same old issues at OL ? Just a guess but that would be "not good".

Summary. Like we say - always need value in the line AND confidence. We honestly think 13-14 pts is "value" but not confident enough to pounce yet. We reserve the right to check in later and consider some kind of VT play but for now gonna pass.

mega

thx boys

McGuire - I hear ya on Wisc/Bama. I know it drives people crazy but we won't play a game unless we get the number we want and I fell asleep at the switch maybe too much write-ups ha ha and the wisc total got STEAMED under and thus so did the Wisc TT. I cant argue with anything you are saying hoping for a small tick up in the total again. Glad to see you agree on VT....VT was a DOCUMENTED 24578234805723490 STAR MEGALOCKS winner last yr at Ohio St just really having a hard time pulling the trigger on this game for some reason even tho we sometimes bet underdogs to a fault

remember peeps

all this BS in the write-ups does not guarantee anything in terms of ......Play safe and follow your own gut.

thanks guys

tsw - LAKALAKA !