NCAA week 10

Blowout -  nice hit buddy - I told Wahoo that unders are the TRUTH and the LIGHT finally he listened ! GL this wk pal keep up the good work

Deller  I think Jimbo wants to go into the Clemson game knowing he has 2 possibilities at QB in case EG struggles. Smart. But just a guess. GL

iloseagain

BWS - unders  like a magical mangina !  (tell WAHOO)

JAI239 - thanks ....Will be doing a Bama analysis for sure.....Glad you are going with your gut and checking out all the other great cappers on here !

Joker - getting to the Big10 today

Joke - excellent point .....For every game we have a number in mind that we would take the fav or take the dog. Now some games are just a no-play to us b/c we cannot put a reasonable range on it - BG / Ohio is one of those IMO b/c BG can win by 40+ even tho Ohio is not that bad but playing horribly right now.....Sorry just cannot recommend a number but you are 100% right in your comment - always has to be a number - so I guess technically for me it would be 24.5 but it would never get there. GL bud !

getexcited -  congrats on your NIU score - nice job

SCC - NIU

Quote Originally Posted by TreyInventor:

Mega can see into the future 

(our crystal ball failed on Florida game last week tho)

THANKS a million bro. Appreciate it. GL this week !

Hey buddy.

Just a rehash of the way we do our thread. EARLY TASTERS are for those that have access to the early lines (on BOL for example which we use) The lines move fast. If you are not on Covers in the NCAA forum watching my thread - you likely will get a worse number - sometimes not - but the lines often move in my favor.

Now what we do is post our play within SECONDS of betting. We will never get a line and then post it a day or two or three later and tell you how great we are. You can always count on us to be honest - but if you do not have a BOL account - then you miss out on the number we get. However - the other thing we do is tell people what the MAX number we would lay is - or for a dog - the MIN you should take so you are never out of the game. If the line takes off - well there are TONS of other games out there and TONS of other cappers to follow not to mention your own picks. Finally - it IS possible that BC covers this game  and it ends up being a losing pick anyway. And for the few EARLY TASTERS we have released this year - the early line has NEVER mattered one way or the other and only once did it matter last year.

So having said that - Here is the internet history on the BC line.

Go to vegas insider website

Click on line history

Go to VI Insider Line Movements

You will notice it opened at -1 at 2:55 pm

You will notice it moved to -2 at 3:01 pm

OUR POST WAS BETWEEN 3:00 AND 3:01 PM

You will notice it moved to -3.5 at 3:10 pm

So 9 minutes is not long - but many times it moves MUCH quicker. And for the record - we got a small taste at -1 but posted -2. We always post the line available when we post on Covers NOT what we bet. Because if nobody can get the line - why post it ?

Thanks for stopping in and asking the question We NEVER mind explaining how we operate.

GL MEGA

Michigan 24 Rutgers (50.5)

Megalocks line 20

Sagarin 26

We are still on Rutgers games protest as long as their entire team remains on the injury report - hard to make a fair line or heaven forbid a wager when there is so much uncertainty. And with a full slate of games who needs this crap?

Michigan D is still very very good - but they have now been outgained the last 2 games - both of them significantly - including a 461-291 punch in the mouth from Minnesota who did whatever they wanted and the immortal Leidner even threw for over 300.....We get it. Rutgers stinks. And they are coming off back to back physical blowout losses - and last 3 games gave up 52 49 48. So it is probably Michigan or nothing but this is not a game we have much interest in to be honest.

Summary. No thanks.

mega

Ohio St 23.5 Minnesota (52.5)

Megalocks line 21

Sagarin 25

Of course the big news that every knows about is that Cardale will be QB this week vs the Gophers.....Hard to know how well he is gonna perform the offense was struggling a bit when he was in there but he has surprised us before and they are coming off a bye week....Meanwhile Minny coming off a big emotional effort at home vs Michigan in which they really took it to them but came up short - outgained them - but its all about SCOREBOARD and we wonder about their mental state this week going on the road at ohio st which is never a fun place to play.....Minny has played some nice games at home vs Michigan and TCU early in the year...but they have also played some stinkers....Is the offense finding a new gear or was that a lot of J Kill emotion vs Michigan?? Hard to know. We do know that Ohio St D is playing a lot better but Minny just might be scrappy enough to gut out enough first downs.

Summary. No leanage.

mega

BetFriends    Megalocks - "Facilitating the movement of trillions in the illegal gaming markets"

Longhorn -  let me do that one next; Gotta get some work done but maybe mid pm buddy

Mega - Great thread and results. Much appreciated!

Michigan State -5 (to -6 depend on book) over Nebraska. Am I missing something or does this line look to be about 10 points too low?

 no problem buddy ! any time. GL this week

REQUEST LINE  .......Megalocks - "Picking winners. And losers"

FIU 18.5 Charlotte (50.5)

Megalocks line 18

Sagarin 19

Well both power ratings line up with the pointspread. Need to look at it further to see if we can find a weakness in the PR or a significant intangible(s)

The big positive IMO for They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy taking FIU is the spot....Puttting stats aside for now - because those for the most part are already built into the spread.....Charlotte is probably feeling the effects of its first FBS season and might be wearing down - lost their last 2 games combined 78-20 against decent teams mind you - but both of those were at home - had to be a bad feeling - now they go on the road to a team that has played only 3 home games and won them all - vs creampuffs - but big wins 39-14 52-12 41-12 and you also have to put Charlotte in that category.

As far as Charlotte goes - what we do like about them is that you have to be real I mean like for real about who FIU has beat.....UCF NC Central whatever that is UTEP and ODU. I get that Charlotte stinks but the spread is 18/19 duh. FIU also may be without key to their pass game TE Smith. They do need 2 wins to get Bowl eligible and still have marshall and WK. Believe me - if even a 5-7 team gets into a bowl it will not be these guys. So motivation in theory should be there. Charlotte D is also better than you might think - ranked #6 in the conf FIU #4. Finally - FIU is 13th in the conf in rushing offense and charlotte has a decent D so while the FIU QB is good - they are not explosive.

Summary. No lean on the side. Lean to Charlotte TT under 16 or lower. Especially if the QB is the guy with 0 td 10 int.

mega

THREAD SUMMARY

picks

NC St -2 (would play up to -3; half size at -3.5 or -4 max)

Arkansas +11 (would play down to 10)

ORDER of appearance for write-ups

NC State / BC (post 38)

Arkanasas / Ole Miss (post 55)

Tuesday - NIU / Toledo (post 65)

Wednesday - BG / Ohio (post 66)

Thursday - Buffalo / Kent (post 72) ; W Mich / Ball (post 88)

Thursday - Baylor / K St (post 92) ; App St / Ark St (post 98)

Thursday - Mizz / Miss St (post 99) / Fresno / Nevada (post 111)

Friday - UTEP/Rice (post 125) Temple/SMU (post 126)

Friday - BYU / SJ St (post 134)

Big 10 - Mich / Rutgers (post 159) Ohio St / Minn (post 160)

Request line - FIU / Charlotte (post 170)

NEXT UP - More Big 10 / SEC

Harvard -  Navy game on the list

dajoker - sure UNC you got it - pretty loaded up tho probably Thurs pm or Friday am sorry

danrules - will have all the Big10 done today

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