NCAA week 9

G Tech / Florida St....what an ending......Apparently we have learned for certain after the last few years that nobody on a FG team can run, pursue-man-with-ball ....or tackle.

vorvan

bloodshot - thanks  AAC getting very interesting 3 undefeated teams whoa ! I will look the AAC games after mid-week games and SEC. GL !

Partles  congrats on your hits. Remember to play safe down the stretch don't extend yourself save some money for final 1/3 of the season and bowl mania

W Michigan 20 E Michigan

Megalocks line 20

Sagarin 21

E Michgan continues to show everyone that there is no bottom to how bad your defense can be.....We know it has not helped losing O Connor - and now 2nd leading tackler LB Zappone is OFY - we know recruiting not easy in MAC but what in the SAM HILL is going on ? 45 ppg 41 ppg allowed last 2 years and this yr well on track to keep pace with those Ds....Now the good news is that their offense does have some functioning parts and can score if you are not careful - 7th rated offense in the MAC and 6th in Yards per play....and they have managed to score 34 48 36 and only under 20 points once this yr So.......that is what makes this cover interesting for WM - EM is probably gonna get some points - and WM has been running the ball very well - 430Y rush vs ohio ......so we are not talking bowling green here on offense - can WM just name the score ?? Well they are gonna get in the 40s but will they cover? Hard to say.......Our MAC INSIDERS tell us that W Michigan is 12th  in yards per play defense 2nd last only E Michigan is crappier - yes we know WM has played some tough out of conf games - but the point is EM is also going to score.

Meglocks fun fact ......Last yr was a slaugher in this series. The four years prior to that ? OT game (teams were comparable).....before that - EM covered THREE in a row as 13 12 and 19 point dogs.

Summary. No lean on side. Awaiting total. Lean to over if not stupid high. We have it at 64.

mega

davis  ; Betfriends

UGA

Lion - sure - will take a lot at that one  gimme a day or so

chopped - thx

Buffalo 8 Miami Ohio

Megalocks line 10

Sagarin 12.76

Had a feeling Buffalo and our old pal QB Veal Licata would come up big last week - thanks to an alert SUBSCRIBER mentioning that game we got a late analysis of that one in our REQUEST LINE Sat am.

Buffalo has played only one bad game this yr - beat up by a good Chips team - but their schedule is very manageable down the stretch and we think 6-7 wins and bowl eligibility are probably in the cards.....Taylor banged up at RB but J Johnson has been and will be a fine sub.....Buffalo also sports a decent set of WR and TE so think they are gonna score on the #106 rated D although Miami not even close to how bad E Michigan is for instance....Miami has moved on to true freshman Billy Bahl at QB has a mind numbing 10 ints this yr already vs 2 TD but apparently our MAC INSIDERS tell us he is getting better and has not been helped out much by his WR especially R Williams....Stats do not lie tho - sure he is young but 10 int? He even fumbled the first snap of the game last wk......Never forget this is MACtion so anything can happen but do not see Miami being able to stay close over 4Q.....They are #118th in offense and #123 in turnover margin.

Megalocks fun fact ......We may see Miami DL Matt SMALLBONE get some action this week. Particularly if they win.

Summary. Lean Buffalo at -8 or lower. Gonna wait to see what the team totals come out at first. Probably will not make the final card but seems like a relatively safe action play at first glance.

mega

Georgia Southern 21 Texas St

Megalocks line 18

Sagarin 18

See a little bit of perceived value in the doggie here - but - this looks like the classic fair value +10/15% premium to take a crappy team line to us.....Not incredibly SUCCULENT tho when we started digging into the numbers - thought that E Michigan D was PURE FILTH and then started looking at Texas St - and NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND - this Bobcat D is brutal as well - they have given up 49+ in 4/6 games this year waaaaaaaaaaaaaat? and now their really bad run D gets the #1 rushing offense in the NCAA on the road.....No way we can take the points here because GS may never be stopped - even tho the game was 28-25 last year - Tex St D was pretty reasonable even good - 28/game this year they at least on paper are way worse....Now what we will also say is that the situation does favor Texas St IMO....GS lost the big game last week - pretty much sealed their fate in terms of a conference championship because App St now has a one game lead and the tiebreaker and an easy schedule left....sooooooooooo GS is left to only try and get a bowl invite - 99% chance that will happen so do not really see much motivation here....They Are Gonna Be Mad Guy loves it because they are gonna be mad and how can you not cover when you are mad ??? Well let me tell you the letdown factor is real - and yes they are going to score but their D can be had as well and Texas St has one of the best offenses in the SunBelt.

Summary. No lean on side. Lean over. Waiting on number but will not take anything 70+.

mega

VITS  thanks

TAMU  thanks

urban - congrats on your FIU score.....Agree they look like the right side again this wk - GL !

dodgy - hope to get to LSU / Bama tomorrow latest Wed am - GL !.....Been two of our go-to teams this yr gonna be tough to decide

Calbear  thanks buddy

have not capped those games yet - just early thoughts....101% of bets will be on Houston - not laying that against Vandy D but I get it - USC - not laying more than 3 probably not playing that game - of course their talent could beat the Troy Aikman Cowboys ....you know we love Clemson so its Clemson or nothing still need to look at it - Florida my fav of the 4 FWIW GL !