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NCAA wk 1

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Posted: #76
Key point here is Buffalo lost at Georgia last year by 23. 
a Georgia team with an excellent offense and adequate D.
Buffalo has 17 returning starters incl. QB.This line is clearly bloated.
 
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Posted: #77



 
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Posted: #78
liking what ya'll are saying about Buffalo...

Anyone like Notre Dame -29?  I just don't see how Temple will score in this game.  See them putting up 10 or less and ND scoring 40 or more.

Like ND here, just my take.  Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #79
huck - no take on ND yet - will look at that one later this wk 

guys - a couple more games we looked at - a lean or two - no additional plays yet....Outside of maybe reverse teasing Clemson to an easy -27.5 first half vs those pathetic Bulldogs with that crap QB

Fla St -10 Pitt
Sadly you guys have this one right i think....Pitt offense looks downright pathetic tho their D should be very good.....UNDER lean...Fla St looks disgusting we upgraded them on our power ratings....wont lay 10 but can see the merit in that one now

Bama -18 VT
Enough has been said on this one. VT is actually gonna be pretty good this yr with a solid D and finally some VT-like Sp Tms...VT a meat grinder team so they are not gonna meat grind this one - worst matchup possible....we have PR at -18 as well not -47 like most do

BYU 3 Va
Strong lean BYU....Va looks to us like a bowl team that makes money ATS starting mid-season with lots of young talent and nice additons to the coaching staff

mega


 
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Posted: #80
good stuff mega
 
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Posted: #81


looked at a few more....

taking a request 
n dame 29 temple
we have the fair line at 26....ND D looks top 10 again so good luck to vanilla offense with new qb...however....can n dame score > 30 with essentially a retread qb and new top target stud TE and RBs??...cant lay these pts with michigan on deck...cant take the pts b/c scoring 3 or less is conceivable.....strong lean under....side is a pass

ark 11 LLaf
have the fair line at 7....lean to LL given their continuity across the board and complete rebuild on offense for Ark....lean LL....under may be worth a look ARK D looks SPICY


 
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Posted: #82

I think that Buff line gets to 38 in 3 weeks...

 

May have to dabble with a Penn St/Flor St ML parlay, maybe throw in Ole Miss to get some nice +$.....

 

What does Chuck think about Rutgers?

 
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Posted: #83

You may be right about Buff. I never thought 36 was gonna hit but u were right. Had to lock in didn't wanna get greedy. 

Have not looked at Rutgers game yet. Up next by request
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:


You may be right about Buff. I never thought 36 was gonna hit but u were right. Had to lock in didn't wanna get greedy. 

Have not looked at Rutgers game yet. Up next by request

Come on Mega....how often is the TRAIN wrong?

 

 
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Posted: #85
By request

Fresno 10 Rutgers
We have the line closer to 7. Gonna take a pass since laying double digits is only a play for us if we are fairly certain it will be a slaughter. Just not there yet. IF Rutgers D is close to last yrs version I wouldn't want to b laying DD. who knows how they play out west? Wk 1 less of an issue. Fresno. We love the look of this team but just because the fans will be loud and just because they "wanna make a statement" does not make it so. They beat up cream puffs bad but .......

Kentucky 4.5 WK. 
Strong lean WK. Petrino HC edge and we have fair line at pick. Stay tuned. 

Mega


 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

huck - no take on ND yet - will look at that one later this wk 

guys - a couple more games we looked at - a lean or two - no additional plays yet....Outside of maybe reverse teasing Clemson to an easy -27.5 first half vs those pathetic Bulldogs with that crap QB

Fla St -10 Pitt
Sadly you guys have this one right i think....Pitt offense looks downright pathetic tho their D should be very good.....UNDER lean...Fla St looks disgusting we upgraded them on our power ratings....wont lay 10 but can see the merit in that one now

Bama -18 VT
Enough has been said on this one. VT is actually gonna be pretty good this yr with a solid D and finally some VT-like Sp Tms...VT a meat grinder team so they are not gonna meat grind this one - worst matchup possible....we have PR at -18 as well not -47 like most do

BYU 3 Va
Strong lean BYU....Va looks to us like a bowl team that makes money ATS starting mid-season with lots of young talent and nice additons to the coaching staff

mega





Hey Mega, Obviously I like the Bama play, I believe there
is value at - 17 1/2 or -18.I believe the matchups in this
game provide an outstanding opportunity for a cover.
Week 1 , we don't know how a lot of teams will come
out of the gate, but Bama has been a reliable performer
in week 1 and with a senior QB , I believe they will take
a step towards another National Championship.

Roll Tide
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #87
Bama certainly looks like the right side GL buddy
 
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Posted: #88

LSU 4 TCU

upgraded TCU last night we have the fair line at 4. That matches market price. The only reason we lean LSU is the hits TCU has taken on D for this game. However - we try to never get sucked in by guys missing. Almost always  gonna pass on this one.

another thought on Rutgers / fresno -  done with this one - gonna pass. unlikely IMO fresno is better (right now without seeing them play) by more than 7 on a neutral site. so if you give them even 5 for HF that is still only 12 which is essentially where the line is now. GL freaks.

mega

 
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Posted: #89
A few leans for week 1: 

Boise St +4 over Washington
LSU -4 over TCU
Temple +29.5 over Notre Dame
Toledo +23 over Florida
Buffalo +36 over Ohio St
Central Michigan +31.5 over Michigan
New Mexico St +42 over Texas

What do you think?

 
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Posted: #90

LSU - see comments in thread (no lean yet)

Temple - see comments in thread (no lean yet)

Toledo - have not capped yet - initial lean Toledo

Buffalo - love it - on it +36 - see comments in thread

CM - lean CM - see comments in thread - have not played yet

NM St - have not capped yet - don't think I will touch this one - Texas will win by 35-55.

 

GL buddy

 
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Posted: #91
sorry - and Boise - line is perfect IMO gonna pass
 
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Posted: #92
Actually liking Fresno quite a bit here. They bring back a lot of offensive production even w/o a designated back. Carr/Adams are will prob team up for 17t or so TDs this year, plus they get back a speed receiver off injury. Good pieces from the o-line back. Lots of seniors and juniors on their defense and with a defensive minded coach they'll be better this year.

Rutgers, while they will field a good defense, have a new defensive co again this year. Could easily be rusty for the first few games. Just don't see them getting enough stops with this 80% throwing offense. Only 3 teams in the top 30 passing Ds game up more yards/game last year. Lastly, I have no idea where their offensive production is going to come from to keep up. They racked up 6 rushing TDs last year!


Carr should throw for 40*/10 this year. If they RB by committee can get close to last years production(15+TDs) they could win 10 games this year.

Gl
 
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Posted: #93
Realized after I wrote this that it was longer than I thought. Didn't mean to hijack your thread. 

 
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Posted: #94
Ha. No prob. Good stuff. Can't find a single reason to play Rutgers was just hoping for 7 pts
 
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Posted: #95

update

warming up to Rutgers but would need 11 pts

troy 4.5 uab...our PR have the fair line right at the market price - don't know enough about these teams to make a play yet - would be tempted if uab got to 7

marshall 18 Miami oh....we have the fair line at 17....Cant totally see the merit in the marshall play just not gonna lay this lumber given that marshall while they may be improved gave up 43/game last yr....mia oh complete mystery really at qb and D might be a sneaky bit better...most likely scenario is a 24+ pt win for the herd just cant do it

florida 23.5 Toledo ...major lean Toledo - florida just has so many new faces and with Miami on deck and a Toledo team that is loaded on offense....in the cue for a play

smiss 8 tex st....we have the fair line at 10 but really - hard to justify any play on this one given smiss looks so bad on offense but D may be sneaky good....vs a team that - well - who really knows??? pass

GL freaksmega

 

 
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Posted: #96
Warming up to the scarlet knights huh?

I initially leaned Rutgers but their defensive losses concern me, may look at over 47 in that game, seems low doesn't it?

.
 
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Posted: #97

hey wahoo

ya - the losses on D worry me a bit - but if we can get 11+ its gonna be tough to pass on that play ...Rutgers loses key guys on D but nobody mentions that Fresno loses all world RB Rouse who had 1500 yds last yr and 60 catches...not convenient to mention tho if you like Fresno ha ha...they also lose 3/4 top tacklers from last yr....Its not a pick em its 11 pts hopefully...Fresno doesn't play many snot-bubbler games so a bit out of their comfort zone.....the total does seem low to me for sure any game with fresno hard to play under 50 especially given like you said Rutgers losses on D. Rutgers still looks good in the trenches

 
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Posted: #98
and Fresno is on the Top 5 MUSH plays of the week along with Clemson over.
 
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Posted: #99
damn fine work you do here MEGA.......
  *somewhere in between Billy Walters and Hunter S. Thompson.........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

damn fine work you do here MEGA.......
  *somewhere in between Billy Walters and Hunter S. Thompson.........
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