NCAA wk 1

Ole Miss 10 Boise (54)

Highly doubt many people will like this one but that is what makes this so much fun 

First off. Yes. Ole Miss can kill them. Yes they can. In fact - "They Are Gonna Kill Them" Guy is probably already down on Ole Miss for 28 units. One of the missing pieces of any analysis we read in general is forgetting the fact that there is a point spread. What if it was Ole Miss -21 ? Ole Miss -44 ? At some point you have to take the points. We have the fair line at 4.5 and were willing to make a play at +7.5.

Ole Miss is one of our sleepers this yr. We like them. We like the coach, the D, the QB. However laying 10 or more wk 1 to a veteran team and winning program like Boise (yes we know they #shitthebed a couple times last yr) is not an automatic cover....When you see the game set at 10 points - to us - Boise has a pretty nice margin for error to keep the game inside the number. Ole Miss has two significant Q marks going into this game - the OL - and special teams. And their leading returning rushers have 563 and 608 yds respectively. They have a total reload in the kicking game which in our view can really make a difference in a wk 1 game like this. Ole Miss against decent defenses last yr scored 0 22 27 10 10 25 .....now say what you want about Boise - their D will be better this yr and in our view Ole Miss will struggle to score in the 30s in this game. If that is the case - 10 points seems rich. Yes - Ole Miss is a sexy sleeper pick that we like too - They are getting a lot of love for beating LSU (who squeeeeeked by Arkansas and Iowa LY) and not enough skepticism for the way they struggled late last yr vs Mizz Miss St and even GT in the bowl game should have been a bigger blowout than it was. Finally regarding Ole Miss - They have an SEC opponent on deck and are well below .500 over the last 10 yrs as a favorite which may or may mean squat....They are the favs and they have the pressure. Boise ? Well they have a new HC but he has some good Boise pedigree in his background....Boise was also starting to slide ATS the last 3 yrs finally (17-22 ATS) so there may actually be some value on Boise early if you believe they will be decent (like we do) but not great....They have a very good mobile senior QB who is an upgrade over the pornstar Southwick...They return a 1400 yd rusher and 100 yard receiver....8 starters on D and excellent special teams - imagine - Boise has a very good kicker ....Now we are also worried about the Boise OL vs the Ole Miss  DL - but Boise has always been great about scheming around this - and we think having a mobile QB and a balanced offense and forever to prepare will help them have SOME success during the game - and again - this is NOT a pick em - we get 10 pts.....They should do enough on offense - play solid D - and have an advantage on special teams in enough measure to get a cover in this one......Just do not see enough of a difference between these teams right now to justify a 10 pt spread...We have faith in new HC Harsin with the Boise pedigree and a team with enough experience and proven staying power in big games to go with them here....It is a leap....We get it.....But we think we build a good enough case to go for it.

GL MEGA