NCAA wk 11

GL MEGA

enjoy the banter, man this is good insight! Get the R1 Driver out and slam the books!

Thx boys

 florida 10 vandy (43)

 oregon 10 stanford (63)

GL this weekend MEGALOCKS

GL this week, bud!

I'll put my thoughts in your thread Mega, if you don't mind.

First, people need to understand what this line has done.  At bm . eu, it came out Saturday night, as both teams were off a bye.  Opened, as nearly as I can tell, at -8.5.  Remained there til Sunday morning when I checked again.  Still -8.5.  Then it went to -7 -125.  Then back to -7.5, then back to -7 -115.  Then, boom...-10.  How do I read this:  8.5 was a bit of a fishing line to see where the action was.  Early bets on Stanford, maybe made to lower the line to -7?  But once it got to -7 -115, Oregon got pounded.

Stanford has several advantages:
HF in primetime
Special teams: Stanford scored td's on kick returns vs Utah and Wash to help them eek out a win and keep the Utah game close.
SOS: Stanford's is much better thus far
Turnovers: Stanford wins this usually - they didn't against Utah
Oregon can be run on:  Wash, UCLA, VA and TENN all did it in the 1h before they got too far behind

Those are not insignificant.  Something doesn't add up for me tho.  Washington outgained them by 200 yards, but were just sloppy enough to lose.  They lost TO battle in Utah and lost.

The win against AZ st looks really good right now as AZ st is playing great...now.  I didn't watch that game so have little feel for what a disaster the 1h was for Az st, or why.  Info?

UCLA is too average offensively, as has now been proved after rolling bad teams early, to move the ball effectively against Stanford.

Or st is simply too one dimensional against a D like Stanford.

It seems that the most balanced teams, between rush/pass, offense/defense, are Uwash and Utah.  And we know that Stanford really struggled with those two.  Oregon is more balanced than ever, and better on paper, and with the eye test, than those two.

Will Oregon stop Stanford?  I think yes.  Stanford will get 150+ yds on the ground, but Oregon gets 6+ tackles for a loss on average, in addition to the penalties and sacks, which will put Stanford in passing downs enough to get stops.  The most under-reported story of the year is Oregon's secondary.  They can commit an extra defender to the run, especially against a Stanford which does not throw the ball often or exceptionally well (they are efficient when they do, but it is not their game)

Will Stanford stop Oregon?  They couldn't stop the most comparable teams to Oregon in terms of balance in Wash and Utah.  Oregon is much more willing to pass the ball on all downs, and have actually made a concerted effort (I watch a lot of Oregon games) to do so.  If you are thinking Stanford slows Oregon much, you are expecting Stanford to play better than they have all year.

Thus, for Stanford to cover they need:
2+ turnover margin.  If they get down and are put in passing situations, Oregon will get a pick or two.  Oregon has done this all year.
A big, or several big ST plays.  They have excellent ST so this is possible.
Stop the run without committing extra defenders
Never get behind by 14.

What does Oregon need to do: Play the way they have all year, and shore up ST.  Cut down on penalties.

Seems more likely that Oregon will accomplish its goals than Stanford.

Thx guys

Not a bad approach.  If oregon gets up 14, and they lay out a -20.5 - might have to grab that...The 2h line could also be enticing if Stanford is close but on fluky plays (pick6, ST , short fields).  Not playing the 1h.

gl MegaWeek#11

 new mexico 3 air force (60)

 Gonna be a fine weekend.

mega, im on baylor -14 and will also be on 1H when it comes out at my local, you really think oklahoma can hang with these boys at home?  baylor averages 50 points at home 1H, just want to pick your brain a bit!  GL

thanks buddy, best of luck on your bets, just gonna keep riding that baylor money train till it derails

Hey Mega!

MEGA just FYI... You brought up Buffalo's less than stellar schedule... Ohio's L5 opponents are something like 7-35 including a winless FCS opponent.

And for the record go Buffalo!

Played Mia oh small degen +14 First half. 24 may not get it. 

Meant 24 full game which we were waiting for might not happen cant watch lines for a while. As noted no play on Buffalo game. GL to you freaks. 

Update