Mega! Wazzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzabi! No strong play this week bra? 3 weeks in a row iowa gave up in the 4th quarter.
min vs penn st, minnesota won and covered the last 3 games, playing at home, against penn state that got wooped by ohio st and barely sneak by illinois, and they're laying out only -1 starting out... now its -2.5. smells like fish sauce! Minnesota struggles when they play a decent team with good rush d, ia/w.illinois. They rank 81 in the country in pass defense; translating that to the big 10, thats bad considering most teams in the big 10 likes to run.
penn st, 53 in rush defense, 33 in passing offense. With decent defense I think penn state can sneak out with a win...possible blow out??
also when was the last time you ever see u/o 76 in the big 10?????? indiana vs illinois, i think its gonna be a slug fest and will beat the 76 points.
What do you think?
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Mega! Wazzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzabi! No strong play this week bra? 3 weeks in a row iowa gave up in the 4th quarter.
min vs penn st, minnesota won and covered the last 3 games, playing at home, against penn state that got wooped by ohio st and barely sneak by illinois, and they're laying out only -1 starting out... now its -2.5. smells like fish sauce! Minnesota struggles when they play a decent team with good rush d, ia/w.illinois. They rank 81 in the country in pass defense; translating that to the big 10, thats bad considering most teams in the big 10 likes to run.
penn st, 53 in rush defense, 33 in passing offense. With decent defense I think penn state can sneak out with a win...possible blow out??
also when was the last time you ever see u/o 76 in the big 10?????? indiana vs illinois, i think its gonna be a slug fest and will beat the 76 points.
Mega! Wazzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzabi! No strong play this week bra? 3 weeks in a row iowa gave up in the 4th quarter.
min vs penn st, minnesota won and covered the last 3 games, playing at home, against penn state that got wooped by ohio st and barely sneak by illinois, and they're laying out only -1 starting out... now its -2.5. smells like fish sauce! Minnesota struggles when they play a decent team with good rush d, ia/w.illinois. They rank 81 in the country in pass defense; translating that to the big 10, thats bad considering most teams in the big 10 likes to run.
penn st, 53 in rush defense, 33 in passing offense. With decent defense I think penn state can sneak out with a win...possible blow out??
also when was the last time you ever see u/o 76 in the big 10?????? indiana vs illinois, i think its gonna be a slug fest and will beat the 76 points.
What do you think?
hey buddy - agree with your take on penn st - have some thoughts in my thread - starting to lean a bit to penn st as well - having said that to me a complete coin toss and gonna avoid....Indiana game - no feel for that total since 76 seems just so high - but then again what did Indiana and Michigan do - like 110? GL man - sorry cant be of more help - just don't know about those 2
thx boys
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Quote Originally Posted by demsungsuong:
Mega! Wazzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzabi! No strong play this week bra? 3 weeks in a row iowa gave up in the 4th quarter.
min vs penn st, minnesota won and covered the last 3 games, playing at home, against penn state that got wooped by ohio st and barely sneak by illinois, and they're laying out only -1 starting out... now its -2.5. smells like fish sauce! Minnesota struggles when they play a decent team with good rush d, ia/w.illinois. They rank 81 in the country in pass defense; translating that to the big 10, thats bad considering most teams in the big 10 likes to run.
penn st, 53 in rush defense, 33 in passing offense. With decent defense I think penn state can sneak out with a win...possible blow out??
also when was the last time you ever see u/o 76 in the big 10?????? indiana vs illinois, i think its gonna be a slug fest and will beat the 76 points.
What do you think?
hey buddy - agree with your take on penn st - have some thoughts in my thread - starting to lean a bit to penn st as well - having said that to me a complete coin toss and gonna avoid....Indiana game - no feel for that total since 76 seems just so high - but then again what did Indiana and Michigan do - like 110? GL man - sorry cant be of more help - just don't know about those 2
EM totals since MAC play started - 71 56 75 84 79 71...They are 121 in D - and are ranked dead last in yards per play - get this 7.8 yds/play allowedEvery time anyone does anything including kneeling down, farting, etc...They give up on avg 8 yards. To put that in perspective - Idaho is ranked 120 at about an entire yard less....They are dead last in giving up 30+ yard plays - and give up 2 50+ yd plays a game.....They have given up 50 points 5/6 games including last 4 in a row WTF WTF WTF?? WM D ranked 89 and last 6 games have given up 59 32 47 33 38 30....4L5 meetings between these 2 have gone under 58 but statistically these teams Ds are the worst in a long time - and - added bonus - EM has probably quit - if they do - there will be blood....and points. Should not matter if Van Tuggernuts starts for WM or Terrell....But Terrell had 275 4 TD last wk.
GL - mega
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play #1
e Michigan / w Michigan over 58
EM totals since MAC play started - 71 56 75 84 79 71...They are 121 in D - and are ranked dead last in yards per play - get this 7.8 yds/play allowedEvery time anyone does anything including kneeling down, farting, etc...They give up on avg 8 yards. To put that in perspective - Idaho is ranked 120 at about an entire yard less....They are dead last in giving up 30+ yard plays - and give up 2 50+ yd plays a game.....They have given up 50 points 5/6 games including last 4 in a row WTF WTF WTF?? WM D ranked 89 and last 6 games have given up 59 32 47 33 38 30....4L5 meetings between these 2 have gone under 58 but statistically these teams Ds are the worst in a long time - and - added bonus - EM has probably quit - if they do - there will be blood....and points. Should not matter if Van Tuggernuts starts for WM or Terrell....But Terrell had 275 4 TD last wk.
tempted to play smu but ehy are giving up 42 ppg....avg score 32-42....3-4 SU overall....D ranked 100....on the flip side cincy while they statistically are a juggernaut at 32O and 4D....still played a comical schedule - and the offenses they have faced include - mia oh purdue usf temple UConn Memphis....Not their fault - just saying - SMU may be able to do some damage?? hard side to figure - total also looks perfect - looks over since smu totals last 3 are 107 63 108 but cincy D may just be that good...pass
auburn 7 Tennessee
Auburn on a hell of a roll cant fade them yet...Tennessee - they just find a way to keep it closer than you think some times - last wk was a tough roadie with fresh meat at qb....slight lean to auburn - and defer to guys that know these teams better than us....gonna pass....Auburn looks like a great ML parlay candidate
ole miss 17 Arkansas (53.5)
have the line pretty much where it is....Arkansas has been a cash burning machine this yr - but I mean look at their last 5 opponents - t am florida scarolina bama auburn - jeeeez. something tells me they suck but don't suck this bad....hard to lay 20 in any SEC game not involving bama....no take on total
n dame 4 pitt (51)
puzzling one - MEGALOCKS factoid - wonder if any two teams have ever met after BOTH teams played triple option teams the TWO wks prior?? pitt got navy and ga tech - ND got AF and navy...anyhoooo......just have no feel for pitt at all - playing fla st - playing option teams - scoring basically nothing on Va - over 50 on duke - we avoid games we cant get a feel for - have the fair line closer to 1-2....lean pitt until we looked at notre dame and even tho notre dame is ....they have beat mich st az st and usc....pretty dam good if you ask us....Strikes us they are just well coached and would want 7 pts in this one to play pitt....total a puzzle since do you get 105 pt total pitt or 17 pt total pitt??? slight lean to under
0
cincy 9.5 smu (64.5)
tempted to play smu but ehy are giving up 42 ppg....avg score 32-42....3-4 SU overall....D ranked 100....on the flip side cincy while they statistically are a juggernaut at 32O and 4D....still played a comical schedule - and the offenses they have faced include - mia oh purdue usf temple UConn Memphis....Not their fault - just saying - SMU may be able to do some damage?? hard side to figure - total also looks perfect - looks over since smu totals last 3 are 107 63 108 but cincy D may just be that good...pass
auburn 7 Tennessee
Auburn on a hell of a roll cant fade them yet...Tennessee - they just find a way to keep it closer than you think some times - last wk was a tough roadie with fresh meat at qb....slight lean to auburn - and defer to guys that know these teams better than us....gonna pass....Auburn looks like a great ML parlay candidate
ole miss 17 Arkansas (53.5)
have the line pretty much where it is....Arkansas has been a cash burning machine this yr - but I mean look at their last 5 opponents - t am florida scarolina bama auburn - jeeeez. something tells me they suck but don't suck this bad....hard to lay 20 in any SEC game not involving bama....no take on total
n dame 4 pitt (51)
puzzling one - MEGALOCKS factoid - wonder if any two teams have ever met after BOTH teams played triple option teams the TWO wks prior?? pitt got navy and ga tech - ND got AF and navy...anyhoooo......just have no feel for pitt at all - playing fla st - playing option teams - scoring basically nothing on Va - over 50 on duke - we avoid games we cant get a feel for - have the fair line closer to 1-2....lean pitt until we looked at notre dame and even tho notre dame is ....they have beat mich st az st and usc....pretty dam good if you ask us....Strikes us they are just well coached and would want 7 pts in this one to play pitt....total a puzzle since do you get 105 pt total pitt or 17 pt total pitt??? slight lean to under
Well another Point Shaving U "victory" for WK and they gave up a late TD "accidentally" to give MEGALOCKS a little cash on a Ga St degen play...I still say they could beat Brady and the Patriots - but we will never know because Petrino could get them to lose to UMass by 3 TD No way we can trust a team ranked 121 in turnover margin on the road vs a service academy laying a TD...yes they played navy tough but their qb got knocked out early and while we often think injuries are overrated - this one was a killer to navy - look at that freak he almost beat nd and Toledo on the road....army is not that great but they will give you 4Q of heart run the ball well and only lost to Stanford by 14 at home and beat our EM pals by 25....lost to scrappy WF by 2 at home....small degen action if we can get 7
update
plays
EMich over 58 (max 2% bankroll if dumb enough to tail)
small degen plays action only expect anything
- Miami oh FH +14 (L)
- CMich +21 (W)
- wake under 54.5
- troy +13
- okla +14.5
waiting on
army (want 7)
air force (want 3.5)
0
w Kentucky 6.5 army 57.5
adding army to degen lean list but waiting for 7
Well another Point Shaving U "victory" for WK and they gave up a late TD "accidentally" to give MEGALOCKS a little cash on a Ga St degen play...I still say they could beat Brady and the Patriots - but we will never know because Petrino could get them to lose to UMass by 3 TD No way we can trust a team ranked 121 in turnover margin on the road vs a service academy laying a TD...yes they played navy tough but their qb got knocked out early and while we often think injuries are overrated - this one was a killer to navy - look at that freak he almost beat nd and Toledo on the road....army is not that great but they will give you 4Q of heart run the ball well and only lost to Stanford by 14 at home and beat our EM pals by 25....lost to scrappy WF by 2 at home....small degen action if we can get 7
update
plays
EMich over 58 (max 2% bankroll if dumb enough to tail)
uh oh. we broke our yr of protest on baylor and oregon games - gonna test the waters small with oklahoma +14.5....We are not gonna go into stats much because we cant argue with anyone that says baylor will put up too many points for okla to cover.. just cant argue that. However - we look at the following....collectively all these things together....we have fair line at 10....Baylor gave up 327 Y rushing to K St and 199 to the QB while only getting 456Y offense much more like a non-video-game # we are used to seeing....Yes it was on the road - but Oklahoma can run the ball - as well as pass it - and we think there are enough holes to look at over 2 wks to come up with a game plan to move the ball....Finally - will Baylor move thru their D like its not even there?? well Okla is ranked #10 in total D and while we dont think they will stop them obviously - we think high 30s low 40s will be enough to cover - we hope they run enough clock on O and get a couple stops on D....if we are wrong - oh well lesson learned - going small BOnline has the hook so 14.5 we will bite - dont see it getting to 17 next key number.
bu will get punched in the mouth.Oklahoma* +17 -120
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
baylor 14.5 Oklahoma (74)
- added sooners small +14.5
uh oh. we broke our yr of protest on baylor and oregon games - gonna test the waters small with oklahoma +14.5....We are not gonna go into stats much because we cant argue with anyone that says baylor will put up too many points for okla to cover.. just cant argue that. However - we look at the following....collectively all these things together....we have fair line at 10....Baylor gave up 327 Y rushing to K St and 199 to the QB while only getting 456Y offense much more like a non-video-game # we are used to seeing....Yes it was on the road - but Oklahoma can run the ball - as well as pass it - and we think there are enough holes to look at over 2 wks to come up with a game plan to move the ball....Finally - will Baylor move thru their D like its not even there?? well Okla is ranked #10 in total D and while we dont think they will stop them obviously - we think high 30s low 40s will be enough to cover - we hope they run enough clock on O and get a couple stops on D....if we are wrong - oh well lesson learned - going small BOnline has the hook so 14.5 we will bite - dont see it getting to 17 next key number.
bu will get punched in the mouth.Oklahoma* +17 -120
you going to add more money to you TROY play?. you can get +15
Hey bud. No it's just a small action play. Don't like it that much so gonna keep it as is. I think that is excellent value but pretty much never put big money on a team with a really bad D. My guess is Anthony is out. Who knows? I think I may look for in game action if ULL goes up 7-0 might get +20 to add a wee bit. GL!
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Quote Originally Posted by CarterSECpicks:
you going to add more money to you TROY play?. you can get +15
Hey bud. No it's just a small action play. Don't like it that much so gonna keep it as is. I think that is excellent value but pretty much never put big money on a team with a really bad D. My guess is Anthony is out. Who knows? I think I may look for in game action if ULL goes up 7-0 might get +20 to add a wee bit. GL!
seems like an awful lot of points to us - tulane offense notwithstanding - 227 310 301 167 yds last 4 games - torn because we really like utsa to win but have fair line closer to 4 so pass on this one - plus have not seen either team play this yr - no feel
usc 17 cal (56)
well cannot play cal with the 122 ranked D and have only covered 1 of last 9 at home....USC has trouble covering on the road - but with coach O - had a big win at oregon st so throwing that stat out - usc D 14 3 14 pts last 3 games - however we think Cal will score some....hmmmmm slight lean usc - total lean to under and angles say under but with a team like cal that throws so much and has such a bad D just cant go there
on a sidenote - if you are gonna post a game of the (insert exaggeration here) - why do you post a line that doesnt exist anymore? Make Believe Line guy has multiplied like rabbits
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utsa 8.5 tulane (51)
seems like an awful lot of points to us - tulane offense notwithstanding - 227 310 301 167 yds last 4 games - torn because we really like utsa to win but have fair line closer to 4 so pass on this one - plus have not seen either team play this yr - no feel
usc 17 cal (56)
well cannot play cal with the 122 ranked D and have only covered 1 of last 9 at home....USC has trouble covering on the road - but with coach O - had a big win at oregon st so throwing that stat out - usc D 14 3 14 pts last 3 games - however we think Cal will score some....hmmmmm slight lean usc - total lean to under and angles say under but with a team like cal that throws so much and has such a bad D just cant go there
on a sidenote - if you are gonna post a game of the (insert exaggeration here) - why do you post a line that doesnt exist anymore? Make Believe Line guy has multiplied like rabbits
puzzling one - MEGALOCKS factoid - wonder if any two teams have ever met after BOTH teams played triple option teams the TWO wks prior?? pitt got navy and ga tech - ND got AF and navy...anyhoooo......just have no feel for pitt at all - playing fla st - playing option teams - scoring basically nothing on Va - over 50 on duke - we avoid games we cant get a feel for - have the fair line closer to 1-2....lean pitt until we looked at notre dame and even tho notre dame is ....they have beat mich st az st and usc....pretty dam good if you ask us....Strikes us they are just well coached and would want 7 pts in this one to play pitt....total a puzzle since do you get 105 pt total pitt or 17 pt total pitt??? slight lean to under
Thank you, sir. No play for me.
BOL this week.
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
n dame 4 pitt (51)
puzzling one - MEGALOCKS factoid - wonder if any two teams have ever met after BOTH teams played triple option teams the TWO wks prior?? pitt got navy and ga tech - ND got AF and navy...anyhoooo......just have no feel for pitt at all - playing fla st - playing option teams - scoring basically nothing on Va - over 50 on duke - we avoid games we cant get a feel for - have the fair line closer to 1-2....lean pitt until we looked at notre dame and even tho notre dame is ....they have beat mich st az st and usc....pretty dam good if you ask us....Strikes us they are just well coached and would want 7 pts in this one to play pitt....total a puzzle since do you get 105 pt total pitt or 17 pt total pitt??? slight lean to under
we have the fair line closer to 4-5.....Nevada is 0-5 SU on the road but check out these opponents - ucla fla st boise fresno sd st.....doesnt mean they will win at col st - but to us - their stats look way worse than they might otherwise be - no reason they can keep the deficit in single digits - both Ds are horrible....total maybe a bit light gonna roll small with NEV +9...similar set up to troy game - ya they suck but once the spread gets stupid you have to try it
adding penn st over 48 small - see previous post - has been validated by international MEGALOCKS correspondent Woodsheds R US.
fresno 8.5 wyoming (79)
gonna lay off this one - we have the fair line right where it is ....there seems to be some sharp-unreversed-trap line movement on wyoming.....looking at fresno's resume - see a 10 pt win as surely possible - wy got trucked at home by col st....pressure may be mounting on them tho.....total 79 tempted to play over but only one Wy game all yr has hit 80....pass
update
plays (max 2% bankroll if dumb enough to tail)
e mich over 58
small degen plays - action only - expect anything ...2-2 so far this wk
- wake under 54.5
- penn st over 48
- nevada +9
waiting on
air force (need 3.5)
army (need 7...doubt it now)
mega
0
thx guys
adding small degen plays.....
col st 9 nevada (64.5)
we have the fair line closer to 4-5.....Nevada is 0-5 SU on the road but check out these opponents - ucla fla st boise fresno sd st.....doesnt mean they will win at col st - but to us - their stats look way worse than they might otherwise be - no reason they can keep the deficit in single digits - both Ds are horrible....total maybe a bit light gonna roll small with NEV +9...similar set up to troy game - ya they suck but once the spread gets stupid you have to try it
adding penn st over 48 small - see previous post - has been validated by international MEGALOCKS correspondent Woodsheds R US.
fresno 8.5 wyoming (79)
gonna lay off this one - we have the fair line right where it is ....there seems to be some sharp-unreversed-trap line movement on wyoming.....looking at fresno's resume - see a 10 pt win as surely possible - wy got trucked at home by col st....pressure may be mounting on them tho.....total 79 tempted to play over but only one Wy game all yr has hit 80....pass
update
plays (max 2% bankroll if dumb enough to tail)
e mich over 58
small degen plays - action only - expect anything ...2-2 so far this wk
LSU/ BAMA---SNOT BUBBLER?? I just think this always seems to be a slugfest, and a game dominated by D...just a hunch, but would like to know your thoughts??
Thanks for all the great writeups as always MEGA
0
LSU/ BAMA---SNOT BUBBLER?? I just think this always seems to be a slugfest, and a game dominated by D...just a hunch, but would like to know your thoughts??
LSU/ BAMA---SNOT BUBBLER?? I just think this always seems to be a slugfest, and a game dominated by D...just a hunch, but would like to know your thoughts??
Thanks for all the great writeups as always MEGA
Love the over actually until I saw the total. Too high was hoping for 50ish. GL man
Did not get 3.5 with AF. As we said earlier in thread sometimes it works out. Gotta demand your number. Will have another play tomorrow am. GL boys
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Quote Originally Posted by Johnnynumbers:
LSU/ BAMA---SNOT BUBBLER?? I just think this always seems to be a slugfest, and a game dominated by D...just a hunch, but would like to know your thoughts??
Thanks for all the great writeups as always MEGA
Love the over actually until I saw the total. Too high was hoping for 50ish. GL man
Did not get 3.5 with AF. As we said earlier in thread sometimes it works out. Gotta demand your number. Will have another play tomorrow am. GL boys
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