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NCAA wk 11

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Posted: #326
Quote Originally Posted by unhinged:



relatively new here, but clearly everyone gravitating to, because... well.. results speak for themselves

cant help but extend an appreciation for write-ups, insights you have on games, lines, etc

instead of asking for a a particular game's outlook, im more curious as to which games (sides or totals) - say 5-6 - you would have most faith in, if were able to move the line 7 points.

essentially looking to close out a teaser and past taking wash st for 17.5, left pondering which games might 'speak to you' as far as what might like (again if were able to add 7 or more points in either direction)

and as all have said before, thanks for everything

appreciated in advance, -t
He posts leans and picks obviously the picks are the ones to tease 
 
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Posted: #327
Minny and Iowa will be a conservative game plan. Iowa ok with that line of scrimmage rugby scrum fest, as they seemingly have the big play capabilities (meaning 3rd down conversions, not 50 yard breakaway speed TD runs). Lot of clutch ability in Iowa. In a potentially low scoring game, always a good bet to side with the dog however. Also have to pass. 
 
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Posted: #328
Quote Originally Posted by soxfann1:

He posts leans and picks obviously the picks are the ones to tease 


yes, i get that - totally - as already have vt and was st in play, along with a great many other games.  i guess i was more inquiring as to which ones were closest to being plays - and would fall into his comfort zone of playing -again- if able to move the line in his favor, is all.  not looking to clutter this thread any further (as obviously a great many admirers - for very good reason), as much as appreciating his picks, and insights.  thanks for the heads up though

and in any regard, appreciated again, t
 
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Posted: #329
vtec you are the man mega. let's dooo it this weekend!
 
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Posted: #330

Quote Originally Posted by Teamzero:

Would you take Minnesota +13?

Yes.  The line is +9ish everywhere.  The lines get pretty sharp this late in the season.  I would make the play, if you can beat the current line by 3.5 to 4 points.  This goes for any game or total this late in the season.  You will win long term over the course of 50, 100, 150 plays if you get an extra 3 points per play. 

 
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Posted: #331
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

lastchance  thx. VT game was a good lesson for all you young Sparkies 1. sometimes you lose even when your team dominates "the stats"...it sucks but it happens....it sucks but gotta put the big boy pants on and suck it up2. They play 4Q and hopefully by the end of it the game goes the way you hoped....Have faith.....Worst case you lose GL Saturday pal
papa
dadale
BYU
Wahoo - we got the cash buddy....It ended up the way it should have ended up but we both have seen it go the other way where the team with more yards is just snakebit and you lose....Let's collaborate MORE ! MEGAHOO
billyh ....I would say that is tacky but I think it is a good idea....Save some of those bills for when we have bad weeks
chad - love reverse jinx threads ....And reverse jinx comments - for example - Congrats UCLA backers
VITS -
niceehh - ....Im an hour outside Toronto in north part of waterloo
Betfriends
degengambler ...."smush"....EXACTLY....that is how we find edges sometimes - look for "averages" that Number Cruncher Guy uses that make no sense.....Have not looked at the Troy total but you may be on to something GL
somethnew....We had nothing to do with it - it was the Beamer SCOWLS that turned the tide !
estes - my man
Adogg - fumblayyyaa - love it
calbear ....hope to get out to LA !
Jamie
Bridge - thx man - our INSIDERS are 2nd to none
Henne
Area51  thanks man
Tien  thx....MVP over Durant?
dish
 
Ok gotta get cracking and find time to get to more games.
 
GL and thanks - Mega

Thanks for the va tech pick Mega. Game shouldn't have been as close as it was we still cashed. Added the bills and those three NBA games last night and was very successful. 5-0. Clean sweep. Thanks again bro!!
 
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Posted: #332
Quote Originally Posted by CsCollegeFund:

Yes.  The line is +9ish everywhere.  The lines get pretty sharp this late in the season.  I would make the play, if you can beat the current line by 3.5 to 4 points.  This goes for any game or total this late in the season.  You will win long term over the course of 50, 100, 150 plays if you get an extra 3 points per play. 

BRAVO !! great advice.....Also would add that if you have a 2nd out can go for a BETTE MIDDDDDLER .....Play +13 and -9

 
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Posted: #333

Joe -  sorry no read on Virginia game - would lean to the dog tho - VA just one of those teams I seem to miss on a lot - like Baylor ....GL !

win4 - thanks

Bloodshot - will get to the Houston game later today

soxfann

relaxdude - cheers bro - glad you agree

SCC - ....I see my girlfriend in your avatar still has those awful shoes - go buy her something nice with your NCAA cash

hoseajr

unhinged - thanks for the post.....I do not play teasers why don't you give me your top 5-6 and I can pick the top 1-2 from those?

 

 
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Posted: #334
Minnesota is without their 2 starting DT's, perhaps that's why it was pulled?  I came across that info yesterday.  I believe they missed last game as well, but I do not follow Minnesota so don't shoot the messenger.
 
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Posted: #335

REQUEST LINE.....Megalocks...."Working for you 25/7"

Nevada 1 San Jose St (52)

Megalocks line 2

Sagarin 1

Very interesting game probably looked at it for too long.....SJ St coming off a great game vs BYU went for 2 to win the game and did not get it done....They have one of the top RB in the NCAA in T Ervin....QB play is ok but not flashy they can light up bad Ds Nevada at home probably not the team they are gonna explode against IMO.....Big worry for us is the matchup and the series history - SJ #105 ranked run D vs the Nevada 2H monster probably gonna get both guys to 1000Y this year....That is going to be a major problem trying to get Nev off the field.....SJ also 0-6 L6 SU at Nevada.......Lean to Nevada but they have only beaten UC Davis Buff New Mex Hawaii and Fresno so hard to back em here and the line is not moving higher at all which is not fantastic....maybe it will move up - or maybe people are very impressed with the BYU game in which SJ looked pretty good....Both teams fighting to get to bowl games - Nevada gets to 6 with a win here and have two tough ones on deck - if you believe in that kind of thing they will be all guns blazing. Should be a good one.

Summary. Lean under. No lean on side.

mega

 

 
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Posted: #336
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

There are some -8 out there - Thinking there is news on the QB and/or suspensions but just a guess.


Guessing Iowa QB Beathard out as he's been hurting recently.
 
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Posted: #337

THREAD SUMMARY 


Picks

Virginia Tech +3.5  (would not play below 3)

Miss St TT under 21 (would not play below 21)

Wash St +10.5 (would not play below 10)

 


Order of write-ups

Tuesday - Ohio / Kent (post 9)  Toledo / C Mich (post 11)

Wednesday - BG / W Mich (29)  Buffalo / NIU (31)

Thursday - ULL / S Ala (45)  V Tech / G Tech (65)

Friday - USC / Colorado (88)

SEC - Mizz / BYU (96)  LSU / Ark (101)

SEC - Kent / Vandy (103)   Fla / SC (106)

SEC - Ga / Auburn (113)

SEC - Alabama / Miss T (115)

Request - Cincy / Tulsa (145)

Request - Ga S / Troy (172)   Okie st / Iowa St (174)

Request - Okla / Baylor (180)

Request - Wash St / UCLA (235)

Request - Army / Tulane (246)

Request - Iowa / Minny (314)

Request - SJ / Nevada (335)


NEXT UP - A few more requests and Tenn/NT  

 
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Posted: #338
Thanks for doing the Nevada game, what looks interesting is a first half under. We, we being Nevada, have gotten off to horrible starts--we had a fumble recovery for a TD otherwise we would have been under last week.  Nevada has averaged under 10 pts in the first half in the last 5 games.  Surprisingly our defense is extremely strong in the second half
 
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Posted: #339

Quote Originally Posted by gogirl:

Thanks for doing the Nevada game, what looks interesting is a first half under. We, we being Nevada, have gotten off to horrible starts--we had a fumble recovery for a TD otherwise we would have been under last week.  Nevada has averaged under 10 pts in the first half in the last 5 games.  Surprisingly our defense is extremely strong in the second half

 great intel - thanks. Looking very hard at that game total still - GL

 
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Posted: #340
Hi mega first time on covers forum. Do u do NBA or NFL requests too? Thanks in advance 
 
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Posted: #341
Or now college basketball too?
 
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Posted: #342
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

soxfann

unhinged - thanks for the post.....I do not play teasers why don't you give me your top 5-6 and I can pick the top 1-2 from those?

essentially i have more open spots in a parlay than io know what to do with - and can realistically buy to whatever number id like, so to have better chance of winning

here are the pieces im eyeing, and tryna figure which of the group are stinkers

w/adjusted lines

MICH - 6 (ind)

OV TULSA / CNCY 68

CAL -14

OV USC / COL  51

'CUSE +36 (clem)

OKLA +9 (bay)

FLA ml  (s car)

NEB ml (rutg)

FLA ST ml (ncst)

TROY +14 (ga so)

'BAMA ml (msst)

ORE +17 (stan)

NW -7 (pur)




cheers 

 
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Posted: #343
Any breaking news on the Iowa/Minny game. I can get Minny +13??????
 
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Posted: #344
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Quote Originally Posted by CsCollegeFund:



Yes.  The line is +9ish everywhere.  The lines get pretty sharp this late in the season.  I would make the play, if you can beat the current line by 3.5 to 4 points.  This goes for any game or total this late in the season.  You will win long term over the course of 50, 100, 150 plays if you get an extra 3 points per play. 

BRAVO !! great advice.....Also would add that if you have a 2nd out can go for a BETTE MIDDDDDLER .....Play +13 and -9


Thanks guys! Really appreciate the time and help you put in!
 
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Posted: #345

smitran

hawks

MWill - if you can get Minny +13 find a -9 and go for a middle

xiaomoto - just NCAA F

unhinged - my favs are Bama ML and your OVER in the USC game.....The only ones I am not fond of are.....a) Oregon - would rather go the other way - b) Sooners - I like them to win BUT BUT the variance on Baylor games is so high it is pointless to use them in a teaser either way imo....GL !!

 
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Posted: #346
Minnesota is going to be without Gentry both DL's and a few offensive linemen. I liked Iowa at -10, but when you get near two touchdown's it gets iffy. 

The one saving grace is that they should be the next team to go into the playoffs if they remain undefeated, so they have to play for style points. This is one of the few times they are on primetime. I think Minnesota shot their wad with Ohio State, they aren't going to a bowl game most likely. Iowa can also put up some points recently (40, 31, 35) so the over on this at 45 may be the better bet.

The most sure thing is Iowa ML -485
 
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Posted: #347
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

unhinged - my favs are Bama ML and your OVER in the USC game.....The only ones I am not fond of are.....a) Oregon - would rather go the other way - b) Sooners - I like them to win BUT BUT the variance on Baylor games is so high it is pointless to use them in a teaser either way imo....GL !!


thank ya kindly 
 
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Posted: #348
I had BG and VT

I like

Iowa ML -485
Iowa Over 44.5
Navy over 61
Marshall -12
Houston -7
Stanford -10
Utah -6
W State +11
UL Monroe +15
Marshall 1H -7
 
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Posted: #349

REQEUST LINE......Megalocks...."Working hard for the money"

Houston 7 Memphis (71)

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin 6.5

Do not see much value in this game even the total looks about right....We did point out in our 242874524387523090 star vegas bomb steam club special with Cincy that the Houston D can give it up to a good QB - and Cincy drilled them for over 500Y and only lost by 3....This week it is a similar matchup but we do not trust the Memphis D as much as the Cincy D - just don't. We would want -4 to play Houston and +10 for Memphis and they is not happening.

Neat battle going on at top of division - Houston and Navy with 0 conf losses Memphis with 1 but have Houston and Navy to go.

Summary....no leanage.

mega

 
 
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Posted: #350
Can you do a write up on Temple -2.5 at USF. Looks a little too good. Might a trap. Want to hear your take on it, thanks! 
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