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NCAA wk 11

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Prospect
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Posted: #151
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

upside -thanks 

Astrocketexans  have fun at the game pal....The total looks pretty much perfect to me sorry bud not take on that ....Will do my best to get to that game later in the week still have a ton of games to get to - GL

soxfan....I think i would want 24.5 min to play Buff TT under GL !

Thanks mega!
 
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Posted: #152
kvngr 

Urban - thanks pal ! hope to get to the pay window on that one - BOL this week bro

Beningo 

Up10 - follow here and on Tw if you want GL 

billyh - Just like the pros need their 7000 STAR Bunghole Bombs and 82435 star Vegas Lockdown Steam Locks.....We have our own STAR system which just shows you how strong those plays are. I mean that is a lot of stars. GL !
 
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Posted: #153
Mega, can I add a request line? This is the only one I have for this week. Being from Cali Cali and working 15minutes from Palo Alto, I'm a big Stanford guy and I hope they make it to the playoff. I also think McCaffrey is a Heisman candidate if not the favorite to win it. And Stanford has been on an absolute tear this year minus that one scare vs Wash. State. I'm pretty much going to buy myself some Stanford gear and dress up as a giant tree (seriously, worst mascot in game) by the end of this season.

All that being said, I think -10 vs the Ducks @ Oregon is going to be tough to cover. After going 3-3 first 6 games (against solid quality teams) they've come together and raked up three games in which they could have easily lost. But they won convincingly at that. Looks like their offense is awake again and Mariota hangover is finally over. Do I think Stanford wins this? No doubt. Do I think they cover at -10? Probably not despite being a big Stanford fan 10 point is a lot to give up against a quality rival in the Pac12.
 
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Posted: #154
Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34:

Thanks for the Toledo lean mega, I bet your picks much bigger but you pretty much nailed that game verbatim. Nice work dude

 thanks man - glad you got some Toledo cash well done
 
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Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by lastchance0910:

I just wanted to express my gratitude for your time and commitment to the NCAAF on COVERS.....

MEGALOCKS, You've given us tons & tons of Info & excellent insight on lots of games, throughout the week, every week...

I've turned a friend on to your thread, and he now calls it the "ONE~STOP~SHOP".....

I myself, cap a few games I like. pickup a few leans. & hang out on COVERS around from thread to thread.....but in recent weeks I find myself hanging out mostly on your thread.....hahaha
Again, THANXS, MEGALOCKS......&....BL...







THANKS buddy  appreciate the support and kind words....Hopefully the picks are ok this wk - GL
 
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Posted: #156
Correction, -10 @ Home****, not @ Oregon.

 which makes a little bit more sense. But everything still applies and I think Oregon can cover quite easily with their offense firing.
 
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Posted: #157
PS: Taylor can buy her own damn shoes. With the cult that follows her (girls, boys, women, and men), she can probably afford to go tilt on a couple football games and end up winning every single one of them and use that money for charity or a pumpkin spice latte for all her "besties". While I use to be a bigger fan of her and her country music my crush remains because... thank god she's hot tho right? 
 
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Posted: #158
WYNNWYNN

 great post on the Alabama game 

We never mind discussion on any of the games - and especially if it some good intel opposite of our picks - then it helps everyone because they can see both sides of the game with supporting arguments and then make a choice.

Specific to Bama - As you know we only make one pick per game and once we missed Bama -7 which was a coin toss with TT under 21 to us - We had to go with the TT under 21 for sure once Bama hit -8.

Miss St deserves a ton of credit this year. We love the HC and the QB. Now as far as the "revenge" thing - We normally love the angle as a supplement to fundamentals when capping BUT Alabama is used to getting everybody's best shot. Further - Miss St has lost 7 straight to Bama and yes these are 2 different teams but it is VERY hard to impose your need for revenge when the other team has the HUGE advantage in the running game and on defense. Nothing quiets things down from a revenge standpoint than a good old running game down the piehole. I totally hear and respect what you are saying buddy. It seems to be a very popular take on the the game that Miss St is dying to ruin Bama's season but they have to have the horses to do it and just do not see it. Bama is peaking. #1 in opp QB rating D. They are 2nd in time of possession holding it for 34 min a game - and Miss St is dead last in the SEC. Miss St better make use of their possessions or get a bunch of turnovers if they wanna keep this one within DD just my opinion. Miss St will have zero shot of running the ball.

Overall - i do agree with your take that the TT under is the safer play and has a better chance of hitting than Alabama -8. If this is indeed a close one which is possible - I think it will be low scoring which favors your +8 play.

Thanks for posting - GL !!
 
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Posted: #159
SCC .......and Taylor 

I will try to get to the Stanford game buddy - still owe 6 games to the freaks ......My gut right now is Stanford you know how we like physical football and D just think Stanford might be able to put it to them. Not sure yet tho. GL
 
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Posted: #160

THREAD SUMMARY 


Picks

Virginia Tech +3.5

Miss St TT under 21


Order of write-ups

Tuesday - Ohio / Kent (post 9)  Toledo / C Mich (post 11)

Wednesday - BG / W Mich (29)  Buffalo / NIU (31)

Thursday - ULL / S Ala (45)  V Tech / G Tech (65)

Friday - USC / Colorado (88)

SEC - Mizz / BYU (96)  LSU / Ark (101)

SEC - Kent / Vandy (103)   Fla / SC (106)

SEC - Ga / Auburn (113)

SEC - Alabama / Miss T (115)

Request - Cincy / Tulsa (145)

 

NEXT UP - REQUESTS  and...LAST SEC GAME  

 
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Posted: #161
Mega, Im new to your write ups

what do you mean Buffalo/NIU (31)

thoughts on over/under? on this game
 
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Posted: #162
Quote Originally Posted by yeltneb:

Mega, Im new to your write ups

what do you mean Buffalo/NIU (31)

thoughts on over/under? on this game

That is the post number of the write up for the game.
 
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Posted: #163
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

WYNNWYNN

 great post on the Alabama game 

We never mind discussion on any of the games - and especially if it some good intel opposite of our picks - then it helps everyone because they can see both sides of the game with supporting arguments and then make a choice.

Specific to Bama - As you know we only make one pick per game and once we missed Bama -7 which was a coin toss with TT under 21 to us - We had to go with the TT under 21 for sure once Bama hit -8.

Miss St deserves a ton of credit this year. We love the HC and the QB. Now as far as the "revenge" thing - We normally love the angle as a supplement to fundamentals when capping BUT Alabama is used to getting everybody's best shot. Further - Miss St has lost 7 straight to Bama and yes these are 2 different teams but it is VERY hard to impose your need for revenge when the other team has the HUGE advantage in the running game and on defense. Nothing quiets things down from a revenge standpoint than a good old running game down the piehole. I totally hear and respect what you are saying buddy. It seems to be a very popular take on the the game that Miss St is dying to ruin Bama's season but they have to have the horses to do it and just do not see it. Bama is peaking. #1 in opp QB rating D. They are 2nd in time of possession holding it for 34 min a game - and Miss St is dead last in the SEC. Miss St better make use of their possessions or get a bunch of turnovers if they wanna keep this one within DD just my opinion. Miss St will have zero shot of running the ball.

Overall - i do agree with your take that the TT under is the safer play and has a better chance of hitting than Alabama -8. If this is indeed a close one which is possible - I think it will be low scoring which favors your +8 play.

Thanks for posting - GL !!

Dude, killer response.  Love it.  Thank you for taking the time to share what's going on in that cabeza of yours.  Looks like your TT under will be a good hedge for my +8 bet and maybe hit both? haha
 
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Posted: #164
Created an account to thank you for your detailed write ups which allowed me to go 4-0 last week. I was lucky enough to get Alabama over at 45 
 
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Posted: #165
Love reading your threads every week. Wish you nothing but the best this season. Just out of curiosity would you play the Mississippi State TT under 20.5 two way at 1.95 odds? Also have it Under 21.0 three way at 2.00 odds. Cheers buddy.  

 
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Posted: #166
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

lgglez - will be looking at all the SEC games bro. Agree at first glance the Kentucky line looks strange. GL !

Bud

upside -  at first glance the Boise line seems a TD too high but they always get a bump when at home and often cover - not sure I will want to play that game - GL pal

lakerz

prophet - congrats and thx

WYNNWYNN - ya we lost the LSU total by half a point due to a blocked XP but that is life - The good news is that I know some guys got 45.5/46 and won ....GL

Papa - ya Ohio is really beat up; Have a write-up on that one now - I would not play them this week but that is just me. GL !

Nickel - thanks ! GL this week

Longhorn - thanks buddy. will add Tulsa to the request list should get to it tomorrow GL

BWS  I have no idea what to do with Cal games just avoid them really but will add Nevada game to the request list

Golden - I will add Iowa St game to the request list.  My gut tells me to take the points but that probably is insane. Thx for the comments

Blowout -  thanks man. Will add the Sooners game to the request line - It is piling up - My staff better get back from lunch .......BOL this wk pal !!

skanless - thanks

copag

Jamie - congrats on your scores

Dank - Ya NFL is beatable I suppose but we spend so much time on NCAA just cannot do it; But the real issue is that even if we had time - WTF goes on in that league Seems like your head should explode in anger after betting a week or two of that stuff......Have a NIU write-up. Not sure will be able to get to MTSU game but I might cycle back to it....GL !

slomotion  Welcome to the thread and thanks for the comments....Always a pretty safe place in here to talk about the games. GL

 

 



I guess Ohio was not THAT beat up after all! lol
I stayed away from it tho.
 
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Posted: #167
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:


THANKS buddy  appreciate the support and kind words....Hopefully the picks are ok this wk - GL

Been reading covers for 5 yeras, only read and follow Mega now, the bets!
 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by Nilshu:

Love reading your threads every week. Wish you nothing but the best this season. Just out of curiosity would you play the Mississippi State TT under 20.5 two way at 1.95 odds? Also have it Under 21.0 three way at 2.00 odds. Cheers buddy.  

why would do that ?if they score 20 you win both ways if they score 21 you lose both ways
 
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Posted: #169
Quote Originally Posted by dntn1202:


Been reading covers for 5 yeras, only read and follow Mega now, the bets!

THE BEST.
 
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Posted: #170
Quote Originally Posted by UP10:

Hi Mega 


How do I follow your picks



Is this post a joke?
 
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Posted: #171
Game request tennesse -40 and tcu-45
 
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Posted: #172
REQUEST LINE .......Megalocks...."Caring is what we do"

Ga Southern 6.5 Troy (65)

Megalocks line 4

Sagarin 6

Really interesting matchup....Dedicated SUBSCRIBER and FUNBELT expert Puffkit has been on the Troy uprising since forever....we missed out on some good plays....Since the return of QB Silvers after the Idaho DEBACLE they have gone 3-0 and check this out like for real they were +90 points ATS  in those 3 games....2 creampuffs and one tough game at App St in which they took em to OT....Now normally we do not like to jump on a team after a run like that but the difference here is they are not a "name" school - you know how it is - sometimes these under the radar teams go on epic runs ATS and just keep EATING....Their D is actually ranked 3rd in the Funbelt and GS is #2....Their run D has been good but GS brings a whole new level of HURT with the ground game to go with that D....Now it is true they are better generally at home - but GS has scored 37+ in every game other than the opening wk at WV and at App St......Intangibles going each way - GS has NOT played a Nov game yet - very rested - while Troy can point to a 3 game win streak to end the yr that would make them bowl eligible.....FWIW - GS is in trouble in conference title chase - Ark St in the driver's seat a game ahead with pretty easy schedule left.

Summary. Lean Troy at +7 tho or better. Slight outside shot this makes the final card.

mega




 
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Posted: #173
Thanks Megalock for last week
 
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Posted: #174
REQUEST LINE....Megalocks..."Your friend til the end"

Okie St 14 Iowa St (61)

Megalocks line 14

Sagarin 14.5

Classic handicapping dilemma

1. Take Iowa St. Okie St in a horrible SPOT after win vs TCU and have Baylor and Sooners on deck. Iowa St has an identity now with new QB Lanning. 

2. Take Okie St. Line is about right from a power rating perspective so you are not playing through the nose. And the Iowa St pass D is beyond horrible while the Cowboys' passing game has been WHITE HOT.

Just cannot justify a play on Iowa St even tho we love spots like this. Okie St has beaten them the last 3 years by 21 31 17 points and this Iowa St D is just too horrendous on paper to back at this price. Honestly we would want at least 18.

Summary. No leanage.

mega
 
 
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Posted: #175
MEGALOCKS 

New to the site but love what you're doing. Let me know if you're trying to team up and kill the last couple of weeks.

FYI play wmu ml tonight 
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