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NCAA wk 14

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Posted: #76
The line is 0.5 picks this week from Mega - I am on the under. Leans do not qualify!
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by Julespussy:

The line is 0.5 picks this week from Mega - I am on the under. Leans do not qualify!

Smart bet buddy !  I always knew you were sharp.
 
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Posted: #78
JP 

BWS 


MW CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP 

San Diego St 6.5 Air Force (50)

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin 7

San Diego St has been playing like a well-oiled machine for quite a while now - 8 straight games with 200Y rushing - and the D has only given up 7 14 7 14 17 3 15 14 in those 8 games that is pretty remarkable regardless of the soft schedule.....What they do best is pound the running game and pumphrey and price are quite the combo....Penny to mix it up...This is one solid team. 

Now of course - there had to be a catch, right? Well SD St is without their starting Qb and while he was really just a game manager - he only threw 2 int all year and we like the way he just stayed out of the way - Now what is interesting is that rFR Chapman got into the game last wk - looked ok enough - but the vegas line IMO tells me that the expectation is for no drop-off at qb. we had the line at -7 before the injury and so does Sagarin. Why would that be? Well the AF run D is not that great and SD should be able to impose their will. that is the key. AF we feel will not be able to stop that nasty ground attack.

Air Force offensively has been a juggernaut the last month. say what you want about Boise - they took them behind the woodshed racking up over 600Y - 378 rush and 279 passing - The key to us has been the emergence of a legit passing game....The D has still shown holes - 28 30 47 last 3 games - but they have been so explosive on offense that it has not mattered. They are going to have to earn every point in this one. 

SD HC Long has a well documented history of stopping option teams. Last 5 games alone vs AF won them all and last yr in the bowl game held Navy to 17 while losing by 1 and should have won that game if they were not point shaving but we digress. Not bitter at all.

AF missing a couple of RB but Owens, McVey and QB had 285/328 rushing yards vs Boise and they are all healthy. McVey also had 5 total TD last wk vs NM.

SD St dealing with some depth issues on the DL only 6 healthy bodies according to our MW INSIDERS.

Summary. Lean to AF TT under 23 or better. it is a broken record by now - but cannot fade the team with the much better D. (to be fair - AF has given up the 3rd fewest pts in conf)

mega

 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

THREAD SUMMARY

No picks yet. Sorry guys slim pickings. 


Write-ups appear here....

MAC Championship - post 5
SEC Championship - post 32
BIg10 Championship - post 46
ACC Championship - post 52
MW Championship - post 78


 
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Posted: #80
Just want to say that you do a fantastic job of teaching bettors to be very discriminating in the number of bets they make Mega. 


I know some bookies and they just love the customers that are action junkies, they always lose. Your write ups are insightful and funny 


oh and last not not least you're  winner 
 
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Posted: #81
Good calls Mega ... one thing that you may want to re-look at about MSU is that they are playing very good football right now (last two weeks).  I can't speak about iowa but MSU is really confident, Cook played his best game last week, defensive secondary is healthier and playing much better than earlier in the year when they had two true freshman starting at the safeties.   And the OL is healthy and in rhythm for the first time all year.   

I know nothing about iowa but as a follower of everything MSU, i can tell you this team (and Dantonio --> talked about playing in two bowl games) is really confident and the players are loose.   

 
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

Dan LeFevour had the second-longest stint of anyone in CFB history, starting at QB for an entire decade for CMU.  He trails only Carlos Huerta, who kicked for the Canes for an astounding 13 years.    Hell, Huerta may still be kicking in Coral Gables for all I know. 




wish LeFevour had played another 10. Dude was . Took the books years to catch on that Directional Michigan (Central) didn't suck as per their historical norm.
 
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Posted: #83
Good luck this week mega
 
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Posted: #84
brilliant work man. thanks for all the work you put in!
 
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Posted: #85
Mega, curious if theres an under play in that s.miss game. s.miss backer in me says its gunna be a M.F'in TD BO-NAN-ZAAAA...but miss d also held strong lw at LaT, and L-T has driskel!!!....um....what i meant was there was a 21 pt flurry in 1st min of Q4..., 28 in that first 5 mins...and s.miss has held quite a few to pretty low totals TY albeit it's been with the doldrummer boys..  i had to deal w the OM's point flurry on that under 66 last week and still didn't hate the bet, just don't put alot of stock in flurrys... except DQ flurrys, love those.
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:


 hilarious !! thanks man

i wish i had enough insight to make a freaking pick

GL this wk pal 

Well, as you and your Mega-minions are well aware, sometimes having insight means having the discipline to not make a pick.
By the way, I used to make 10-15 plays weekly, but have learned (mostly from you--THANKS!!!) to be disciplined, which is why I am having my best season ever. Now if my (4X defending champion) Bison can beat Montana, everything will be wonderful!
 
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Posted: #87
MEGA

Not surprised to see no plays yet at this board.  The lines are solid, and LV doesn't put up many bad numbers this time of year on a short list like this.  

I can tell you that Crowd will be rockin' guy should love the ACC Championship but it will be pretty even with orange and powder blue tomorrow at B of A Stadium.  Great spot for this game with lots of fans of both programs in attendance.  Even the UNC 'whine and cheese' crowd will be ready for their 1st really big football game in a long time (maybe the biggest in program history?). Hot Carl and the research team can tell me if there's ever been a bigger one?  
For some reason I think Clemson wins this by at least 7, just b/c they have been on the big stage like this a few times in the last couple of years. (orange bowl win vs T-OSU, games vs. FSU every year, bowl win vs OKL LY, etc).

Like you, I can't wait to watch it

Looking forward to Bowling season buddy!  let's get our team ready 'Big Lebowski' style with some white Russians this weekend....

 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

Dan LeFevour had the second-longest stint of anyone in CFB history, starting at QB for an entire decade for CMU.  He trails only Carlos Huerta, who kicked for the Canes for an astounding 13 years.    Hell, Huerta may still be kicking in Coral Gables for all I know. 




SPIT OUT MY MORNING COFFEE 2 days in a row now ...

train yesterday and now this ..



BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #89
PAC 12 Championship 

Stanford 4.5 USC (58.5)

Megalocks line 3

Sagarin 2

It seems to us that there should be a way to take advantage of perception in this one. The problem is that we typically have a hard time with PAC12 games. I might just be perception - but it seems like the ups and downs of these teams is a bit more erratic and harder to predict unless you are one of the MEGALOCKS INSIDERS that know your PAC12 football. We are getting there but still a lot to learn. What we are getting at is 1) Stanford is much better on offense than you think - scored over 30 points in every game since week 1...Their D has given up the most points/game since their 2008/2009 stretch in which they went 13-12 over a 2 yr span. It is not just their pass D - Kizer was great on the last drive last week but ND ran for 299Y and basically did whatever they wanted all game not sure how they did not score 50....and then in true NFL STYLE - remembered that they were supposed to LOSE like the league office told them - so ACCIDENTALLY let Stanford magically get into FG range with ease to win the game. But we digress. 2) USC is not as explosive as years past but their D is actually not horrible. Ranked #4 in pac12 in yds per play D - Stanford is #6....They also are #2 in sacks/game and Stan is #11. Sooooooooooooo ??? Before we even get into the matchup - seems to us like USC is worth at least a small potatoes lean in this one.

We are at a crossroads tho. We love betting on teams that ESPN tells you have crappy QBs. Ya hogan is sooooooooo bad 68% 9.2/attempt - 23 TD 7 int. Not to mention their freak RB. But their D is just too bad for us to play them. Do we play USC ? This is one of our 3-4 nemesis teams we never seem to get right. Beat UCLA handily but were at home and +3 in turnovers. Before that looked pretty avg against arizona and colorado wtf and then gave up over 400 PASSING Y to oregon. 

FWIW - Stanford off a big win. motivation is not the issue - but letdowns do happen. USC playing a lot looser in this one??

Summary. Lean to USC at +4 or more. Not sure if we are going to play this one officially. Stanford is more reliable overall and have already beat them by 10 this year. Tough call. Also lean over USC TT 27 or better.

mega
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:

Just want to say that you do a fantastic job of teaching bettors to be very discriminating in the number of bets they make Mega. 


I know some bookies and they just love the customers that are action junkies, they always lose. Your write ups are insightful and funny 


oh and last not not least you're  winner 


thanks man - really appreciate it ! BOL this week
 
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Posted: #91
Thanks everyone  Appreciate your patience. Lines just look so perfect hate it ! But trust us - we have done a lot of work so we will post it up maybe you can make heads or tails of the games - NOT TO MENTION there are so many great cappers on here i am sure you can get some good selections as per usual.


green-night - agree Sparty peaking right now ....what would worry me is their running game is not great and we think iowa will be able to run on Sparty. As good as Cook is - recipe for disappointment if you cannot be balanced - GL this wk - enjoy the game! 

skipster 

moody 

Nilshu - thanks ! GL buddy 

Bridge great post ...DQ Flurrys.....One of the few teams we have not seen play at least once is S Miss so just have no feel for what they are all about. Appreciate the heads up as always - intel posted in here is always appreciated !!!

johnny ....Looking forward to bowl season no greater handicapping challenge for me hope to do ok !

Bison ....congrats on your excellent season....The cool thing about Covers is that you see people winning betting few games - or a lot - it all depends on your personal preferences. just win baby. GO BISON

Double 
 
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Posted: #92
THREAD SUMMARY

No picks yet. Sorry guys slim pickings. 


Write-ups appear here....

MAC Championship - post 5
SEC Championship - post 32
BIg10 Championship - post 46
ACC Championship - post 52
MW Championship - post 78
PAC12 Championship - post 89
 
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Posted: #93
Mega, great writeups so far and hoping for at least one succulent pick :)- Keep up the superb work!!
 
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Posted: #94
Like your Usc lean, i hate Stan. How bout revenge from Usc win outright
 
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Posted: #95
Hey Mega do you think that playing on turf will affect the MSU/Iowa game? I'm thinking it favors the passing game and MSU
 
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Posted: #96
Mega - Baylor vs Texas thoughts?
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

PAC 12 Championship 

Stanford 4.5 USC (58.5)

Megalocks line 3

Sagarin 2

It seems to us that there should be a way to take advantage of perception in this one. The problem is that we typically have a hard time with PAC12 games. I might just be perception - but it seems like the ups and downs of these teams is a bit more erratic and harder to predict unless you are one of the MEGALOCKS INSIDERS that know your PAC12 football. We are getting there but still a lot to learn. What we are getting at is 1) Stanford is much better on offense than you think - scored over 30 points in every game since week 1...Their D has given up the most points/game since their 2008/2009 stretch in which they went 13-12 over a 2 yr span. It is not just their pass D - Kizer was great on the last drive last week but ND ran for 299Y and basically did whatever they wanted all game not sure how they did not score 50....and then in true NFL STYLE - remembered that they were supposed to LOSE like the league office told them - so ACCIDENTALLY let Stanford magically get into FG range with ease to win the game. But we digress. 2) USC is not as explosive as years past but their D is actually not horrible. Ranked #4 in pac12 in yds per play D - Stanford is #6....They also are #2 in sacks/game and Stan is #11. Sooooooooooooo ??? Before we even get into the matchup - seems to us like USC is worth at least a small potatoes lean in this one.

We are at a crossroads tho. We love betting on teams that ESPN tells you have crappy QBs. Ya hogan is sooooooooo bad 68% 9.2/attempt - 23 TD 7 int. Not to mention their freak RB. But their D is just too bad for us to play them. Do we play USC ? This is one of our 3-4 nemesis teams we never seem to get right. Beat UCLA handily but were at home and +3 in turnovers. Before that looked pretty avg against arizona and colorado wtf and then gave up over 400 PASSING Y to oregon. 

FWIW - Stanford off a big win. motivation is not the issue - but letdowns do happen. USC playing a lot looser in this one??

Summary. Lean to USC at +4 or more. Not sure if we are going to play this one officially. Stanford is more reliable overall and have already beat them by 10 this year. Tough call. Also lean over USC TT 27 or better.

mega

Mega, I like your take on this game.  Wanted to add something that I am sure you probably already thought about but doesn't hurt to mention.  Oregon absolutely torched USC 2 weeks ago and I was very surprised UCLA couldn't repeat with Rosen and Perkins.  Reason Oregon had the success (other than the fact that their offense has been rolling) was because USC was without their top 2 LBs and Oregon was able to maintain a well balanced game plan with Adams and Freeman.  I give Oregon credit but watching the game there were TONS of missed assignments by USC.  Their defense looked ALL out of sorts against a veteran QB and Hogan is even more battle tested.  I think Stanford faced the healthiest USC of the year earlier in the year too.  Like I said, I was shocked that UCLA played so poorly but I think Rosen's inexperience came into play a bit because UCLA's defense is bad bad bad so he was forced to put up too many points. I DO NOT think it is because USC is already adjusted to playing without those 2 experienced LBs.

I am not sure what to do with the line so might play the over.  Just thought I'd add my two cents for the masses.
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:



Summary. Lean to AF TT under 23 or better. it is a broken record by now - but cannot fade the team with the much better D. (to be fair - AF has given up the 3rd fewest pts in conf)

mega



My books is at 7 right now so I'll wait to see if the lines move anymore. If I can get it at 6 or 6.5 I'll probably go w/ SDSU. Or I'll just lean towards your under TT suggestion. I think what I like most about this match up is that SDSU has one of the best running game in all college football right now. They move the chains and get big chunks of yards. As we saw last week teams that run the ball at this time of the year (when it's cold and weather can be questionable at best) they usually win AND cover the spread convincingly (ahem Ohio State @ Michigan anyone?) In addition if they had their QB healthy I can see this spread being the exact same thing at roughly -7 to -8.5 at the highest which leads me to believe that the QB situation isn't all that of a situation. Thanks for confirming my original thoughts on the game along with some cautionary warnings that the AF defense should hold true in this championship game so perhaps I'll just go a smaller wager than usual.
 
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Posted: #99
Hey Mega. Hope all is well. Will you be looking into the AAC Championship between Temple and Houston? I think that one is slated for Noon tomorrow. 
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by GoBison:

MEGA, you always do good/great work, but your analysis of the ACC champ. game was so insightful and informed that it damn near brought tears to my eyes. Great stuff!



Fukkkkk that's funny hahahahah
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