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NEVADA @ PURDUE: I'll be DAMNED if I lead my Covers Brothers to slaughter with 2 losses in a row.

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Posted: #1
2016 Record: 14-6-1 (70% albeit a small sample)

The pick: 

PURDUE -3 over Nevada 

I know you may think we are committing betting suicide here laying points with a team that has gone 7-31 under Darrell Hazell's tenure.

We are not.

I know you think I am making this play because I have to, that is, because I have Purdue over 4.5 wins on the season.

I am not.

This game has been capped on its individual merits.

The line opened at -3.5 and 2 hours later moved to 3. That is a huge line move. I have to take Purdue now. If it gets to 2.5, screw me, but 3 as a push line is what I am taking on a Monday. If you guys want to wait feel free.

We are laying points but we are actually going against the squares who herded on Nevada as soon as this opened. 

Purdue can win and cover this game. I know you don't believe it after watching Cincinnati get 18 straight 3rd down conversions (yes that really did happen), but Purdue is the play here. If they do not, the season will go to hell right now and everyone's head will roll. That is a good thing for our bet. I may not bet on Purdue the rest of the year because I don't know how they will respond against to superior conception (and all of it is superior) except this team in this spot.

I know you don't like the pick but I am not here to please posters. I am here to make money and share that with others.

I will provide the succinct write-up later in the week. We will not lose two in a row.






 
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Posted: #2
Good Luck buddy 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Purdon't is more and likely gonna make my card, prior to your posting I had very similar thoughts about this game for the Boilermakers, I don't see the Wolfpack traveling well in this one 

BOL brotha 
 
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Posted: #4
Purdue opened -5 1/2 (BetOnline) about 3:30 pm yesterday, then most offshore sportbooks opened -3, about 3 hrs later, I see it has risen to -4 1/2  this morning, looks like you got the good number

GL
 
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Posted: #5
Good lord: I always post the line I see on 5Dimes. Literally at 10:38am, the time of this post it was -3.

Now 1/2 hour later we are at -4.5. You are correct 

5/5.5 are dead numbers and you won't have to worry about it getting to 6 so I'd let this number rise and fall between 4.5 and get my number if you can. 

If not, we'll comment on that towards the end of the week.


 
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Posted: #6
Great info thanks for sharing. In leaning Nevada here but may have to reconsider. Good post thanks!
 
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Posted: #7
Game is scheduled for Noon local time.

so, 9am for Nevada players
 
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Posted: #8
But there a basketball school! 
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by dytide:

Game is scheduled for Noon local time.

so, 9am for Nevada players

Great addition. 

Purdue is also coming off its bye week.

Folks if you are in the Big 10 (and yes Purdue is among the worst if not the worst in conference), and you can't beat an out of conference opponent like Nevada off a bye week and after a game where you got shredded in Cincinnati, then you are worthless. 

I'm serious when I say this: the entire net worth of Hazell and crew and Purdue as a program is on the line if they lose to Nevada and they know it.

If they win not much is gained by if they lose, everyone should go. Blow it all up. ALL of it.

You need that pressure from fans and employers to lay points with Purdue. 

There is a new AD in town and he will axe Hazell. In fact, that is why he was brought in.

If they lose here the fans will be on the verge of rioting. Season over after game 3. I can't even express the disdain and dismay the fan base has for this team right now.

Win and get a reprieve for two weeks. Lose and Perish.

Nevada is coming in off an impressive win (for them) against borderline FCS Buffalo (so in reality it's not much of a win at all) has NONE of this pressure.

And who else did Nevada beat? Nothing Cal Poly. This team has proven nothing.

Neither has Purdue but this is Purdue a program that dates back to the 1800's.

If you can't beat Nevada...off a bye...as a power 5 school...as a team that has gone 7-31 in four years...folks, it's all on the line here. The schedule CAN'T get any easier than this. That is why we lay the points with lowly Purdue!




 
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Posted: #10
Love this play. 

Always scary betting on bad teams laying points but sometimes its gotta be done (SMU/Tulane). If Purdue loses this game at home coming off a bye week and playing this Nevada team dealing with the timezones then they might as well fire every employee involved with the team.

I'm seeing -4.5 at my book as well so I'm gonna wait in hopes that it drops. 

GL as always 

 
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Posted: #11
you got a good deal @ "Old P U" -3, scalabrine. -4 1/2 now in Las Vegas BUT the Boilers are pretty stinky. Wolf Pack really not much either BUT they did beat SUNY-Buffalo last week 38-14 after getting smacked @ Notre Dame 10-39. I guess the Boilers could be "the dog with the least fleas" BUT I will just stay away
 
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Posted: #12
I am on Nevada ML for small .... 

No idea why you like this Purdue squad ???

If anything it might be a great spot to hedge ....





BEST OF LUCK BROTHER= MUCH RESPECT
 HOPE THEY WIN 6+ AND GO BOWLING 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

you got a good deal @ "Old P U" -3, scalabrine. -4 1/2 now in Las Vegas BUT the Boilers are pretty stinky. Wolf Pack really not much either BUT they did beat SUNY-Buffalo last week 38-14 after getting smacked @ Notre Dame 10-39. I guess the Boilers could be "the dog with the least fleas" BUT I will just stay away

If Buffalo isn't the worst team in the FBS they certainly are very close to it.

So for my money, Nevada has two wins over FCS opponents which bodes well for me because it falsely inflates their confidence and lowers this line.

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

I am on Nevada ML for small .... 

No idea why you like this Purdue squad ???

If anything it might be a great spot to hedge ....





BEST OF LUCK BROTHER= MUCH RESPECT
 HOPE THEY WIN 6+ AND GO BOWLING 

Nevada is undersized and overvalued Double, even as a dog. Purdue can beat this team. Purdue has to beat this team.
 
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Posted: #15
Good luck on the play!!! 
 
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Posted: #16
Good luck this week Broham!
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


If Buffalo isn't the worst team in the FBS they certainly are very close to it.

So for my money, Nevada has two wins over FCS opponents which bodes well for me because it falsely inflates their confidence and lowers this line.



Hey thanks for the input. I have been looking @ Army -14 @ SUNY-Buffalo and was hookey about the line . gonna BET the CADETS now
 
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Posted: #18
Dilemma Mike


I found that army line quite attractive. Not a fan of laying 14 points on the road but army has been impressive this year and the option teams offer steady scoring to run it up.
 
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Posted: #19
Purdue now at -6 blows my mind. Never did I think it would get there after it plummeted upon opening.

Are squares now herding on.....Purdue???? How is that possible for a team of such low caliber???
 
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Posted: #20
I REALLY want to bet on Purdue here but Bodog doesn't even have the game what in the fuk?
 
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Posted: #21
2nd week in a row I come into your thread and will say I like the over more than the side, you were on the right side last despite the result



BOL to all
 
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Posted: #22
Scal, great write up as always. Do you expect this line to drop back down?
 
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Posted: #23
You already move the line up to 6 now.  

Good Luck!

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Coin86:

I REALLY want to bet on Purdue here but Bodog doesn't even have the game what in the fuk?

Gotta get off bodog. Bookmaker is where it's at.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Like the O58 much better than a side.....both offenses much better than defenses.....
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