New Here, GOY plays and Week 1 plays

Quote Originally Posted by TheTotalHunter:

What do you like about Tulsa I was thinking Bowling Green and the over?

TotalHunter, Had a response all typed up and somehow lost it... Guess I'm starting over.  I took Tulsa +3.5 after the news came out that starting QB Cody Green did not have a significant injury.  The line was Tulsa -1 and over the course of about a week with the Green rumors moved as high as Tulsa +4.  I'm honestly surprised it did not move back closer to even.

I think Tulsa has enough firepower and balance on offense to score in this matchup.  BGSU defense was an Under machine last year, but as others have posted on here, the numbers are skewed based on a 5 game midseason stretch vs. subpar competition.  Rhode Island, Akron, Miami OH, UMass & Eastern Michigan scored 8, 10, 12, 0 & 3 in those five games.  The Falcons avoided some higher scoring offenses from the MAC West as NIU, Ball State, WMU & CMU were not on the schedule.  All four of these offenses averaged over 28 ppg in 2012.  Don't get me wrong, BGSU still has a strong D with 9 starters returning.  But the loss of production from MAC DPOY Chris Jones cannot be replaced.  He was a high energy, disruptive player that could change a game from his DT spot.  So, I think with their returning QB, RBs and WRs that Tulsa will put up enough points to win the game.... the question is how will their defense hold up.

I had Tulsa +3.5 before the news that projected starting DT Jack Jewell is ineligible.  That's a tough break since their D-line depth is made up of mostly underclassmen.  The Tulsa LB corps should be the strength of the D to start the year as new starters are found along the D-line and secondary both.  3 of 4 starters are new in the secondary with returning FS Nelson a 2nd team Conf USA selection in '12.  BGSU returns several starters on Offense as well, but they do lose both starting Tackles and RB A. Samuel (998 yards).  LT F. Cooper's departure was not expected, he would have been a returning Soph starter.  The key for BGSU's offense is Matt Schilz improving on an average junior campaign.  Overall BGSU's offense will be suitable, but needs to show further improvement before I can back them against a team of Tulsa's caliber.  So, overall I think the line is slightly off probably due to the returning starters/lost starters for both teams contributing to this perception.  0.5 unit play only for me.  Should be fun to watch.  I'm ready for some football already!

Best of Luck this fall! 

TD

Locked in three of the 1st half Totals listed previously, but with better numbers than expected in 2 of 3.

Under 27 NIU at Iowa (1 unit)

Under 31 WSU at Auburn (0.5 units)

Under 30 Northwestern at Cal (0.5 units)

.....and last but not least, risking 0.1 units to win 11.6 units:

Parlay:  Tulsa ML, Louisiana Lafayette ML, LSU -3, Temple at Notre Dame under 53, East Carolina -13.5 and NIU at Iowa 1st half under 27.

Let the games begin!!!  Less than half an hour to kickoff of the 2013 season!  Let's have some fun!

TD

Added Minnesota 2nd half team total under 17.  -120.  (0.2 units).

Added:

Under 48 (0.5 units) NDSU at KSU

Villanova +17 (0.5 units) at Boston College

Will continue to play some small 0.1 or 0.2 unit wagers in-game or 2nd half, but likely won't keep up on posting them all.  Only 1-2 last night on these types.  Hopefully will get the in-game "feel" going on some Friday, Saturday games.

TD

My goodness, I'm going to have to get off this board soon for the next couple hours.  Lots of people....  Been meaning to post a full week 1 card for tracking purposes.  I like to do an overall breakdown, as well as by Type (ATS, O/U, etc) and by Unit (0.5 vs. 1.0, etc.)  We'll get to that later.  Here's the full card locked in as of this morning for week 1:

Liberty +30.5 (0.5 units)

Tulsa +3.5 (0.5 units) 

Under 23 2nd half, Tulsa at BGSU (0.2 units -115) 

Under 17 2nd half team total Minnesota (0.2 units -120)

*Towson +8, 2nd half (0.1 units) 

*North Dakota State +7.5 1st half (0.1 units) 

North Dakota State +15 (0.5 units) 

Under 48, NDSU at Kansas State (0.5 units)

Villanova +17 at Boston College (0.5 units)

Under 54, NIU at Iowa (0.5 units)

Under 27 1st half NIU at Iowa (1 unit)

Iowa -3 vs. NIU (1 unit)

Over 66.5 Rice at Texas A&M (0.2 units)

East Carolina -13.5 vs. Old Dominion (0.5 units at -120)

Marshall -16 vs. Miami (OH) (1 unit)

ULM +24 at Oklahoma (1 unit)

Rice +28.5 at Texas A&M (0.5 units)

ULL +11 at Arkansas (0.5 units)

Under 53 Temple at Notre Dame (0.5 units)

LSU -3.5 vs. TCU (0.5 units)

Under 30 (1st half) Northwestern at Cal (0.5 units)

Under 31 (1st half) WSU at Auburn (0.5 units)

Iowa 1st half team total under 14.5 (0.2 units -120)

Parlay:  Tulsa ML, ULL ML, LSU -3, ECU -13.5, Under 27 1st half NIU at Iowa, Under 53 Temple at ND. (0.1 to win 11.6 units) 

* denotes not posted on covers prior to kickoff so people can ask questions. I missed a couple of these small 0.1 to 0.2 unit plays with some other "priorities" going on.

Best of luck to all.  Everyone enjoy their first full Saturday of college football!

Some updated outcomes below.

Added:

Under 23 2nd half, Syracuse vs. Penn State (0.5 units)

Temple under 7.5 2nd half team total. (0.2 units @ +120)

Iowa +0.5 2nd half (0.2 units @-120)

Week 1 Recap:

Overall:  Win/Loss: 14-12.  Units: -0.96 units.

Breakdown:

1 unit plays: Win/Loss:  1-3.  Units:  -2.3 units.  Ouch!  Had some strong thoughts on the Iowa vs. NIU game which did not work out.

0.5 unit plays: Win/Loss: 9-5.  Units: +1.75 units.

small plays (0.1 or 0.2 units):  Win/Loss: 4-4.  Units: -0.31 units.

parlays: Units: -0.1 units.

Overall I'm really not discouraged despite the average at best record & 1 unit loss.  It's a long season.  Will need to reign in the small plays.  Too many. But early in the season I prefer to play more 0.5 and less wagers since we have a lot of assumptions going into a new season. Biggest regret for week 1 is jumping on the Penn State vs. Syracuse 2nd half Under.  In this thread you'll see my full game Under and 1st half Under leans from a few weeks ago.  I ended up not playing either.  When the halftime score was only 6-3, I grabbed the 2nd half number instead.  Mistake there.

On to week 2!