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nostradamus week 6

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Posted: #51
mdc, gw -
 
ballpicker - the line does sound high on BC-VT (would have thought around 10 based on line based ratings), nice to get that many with teams with solid defenses, on the other hand pattern in series leans heavily towards home team and VT probably recalls last year at chestnut hill, BC could hang most of the way and then get dorked with a classic VT special teams or defensive TD, at least it's not a night game which helps BC chances as well, conflicting thoughts on that one, agree number seems high though
 
bustin - Malzahn photo in cubicle may have to come down if Auburn loses, confused co-workers not sure if it's my pop, brother or something more disturbing, good to see you on UW hopefully they're not hungover from ND loss, BOL bro
 
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Posted: #52
adding
 
BC-Va Tech under 44.5...teams combined for 51 last yr in Chestnut Hill with only combined 540 yds
 
Georgia-Tenn under 46.5...UGA offense slowing down last couple weeks, Vols offense slowing down last couple years
 
Mich-Iowa under 48.5....Hawkeyes not 30+ many times in B10 games last couple yrs (5 of 15), UM offense could be somewhat overrated from early season weaker defenses
 
Army under 14.5 (team)...hard to see one dimensional Army ground assault getting much done against disciplined Vandy defense
 
Kan St-Tex Tech over 58....sounds kind of low for TT game, TT avg 58.5 vs KSU last couple, Potts questionable backup probably just as good or better
 
remaining scores and updated card later, BOL
 
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Posted: #53
Nos,
 
How do you like Nevada at 10.5 now?
 
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Posted: #54
GL this week, Nos! 
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

all - thanks for the feedback, BOL
 
punisher - mainly went with Fres St even though difficult to lay wood anywhere with them, due to Alexander being out and not impressed with backup, plus FSU may recall 32-29 loss last year, held 522-342 yds edge and 318 on the ground, figure FSU in 30's and not sure Hawaii can keep up with new QB
 
streetsmart - not much read on Troy or MTSU, Middle Tenn playing pretty well so might shade the points, on the other hand Troy had the better of recent matchups 3-0 ATS
 
placin - looks like Tenn was 1.5 now, had not heard any injuries or know why that is other than early TN money, agree difficult to say on totals maybe 55-57 range for Aub-Ark
 
damn these numbers are still moving, would have a lot of middling opportunities except not much on playing those, would rather take any edge and move along in most cases although comes in handy if wanting to layoff some later and get middle anyway
 
hopefully some projected scores and any comments tomorrow


Nos, make that Fresno play large. They will run it down their throats. that is all.
 
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Posted: #56
Nos GL this week, like Auburn also  
 
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Posted: #57
gl this week buddy
 
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Posted: #58
SC is a better dog than fav, That being said  I firmly believe that SC has more talent than Kentucky. I don't believe  they are that much better in a game that is early (12:30) and Bama looming next week!
Kentucky +9.5 ....SC wins by 7 or less.
NCST over 55 should be a high scoring game.
ARK +2 at home Ark wins straight up.....Aub is vastly overrated and as the season plays out that prediction will be justified.
Va Tech - 13.5 BC is not a good cfb team.
Houston +2.5 are u kidding me Houston is just better than Miss St.
Baylor +26 Baylor keeps this much closer than normal...
I am a few games over 500 thus far. Have missed posting a few weeks sorry working like a dog!
 
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Posted: #59
like your thoughts on Auburn---not sure why everyone loves Arkansas around here.  at least Auburn can play some defense.  just because Arky smokes a very, very bad TAMU team (that was almost my game of the year and i'm kicking myself)---they are jumping on them as a small home dog.
 
everyone looks at Mallett but haven't seen anyone post something positive against porous Arky defense.
 
 
 
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Posted: #60
On 3 (Wash/Bama/Auburn). Only opposite on Utah. I'll give you 4-0 if I can go 3-1.   
 
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Posted: #61
gl nos on other of that vt bc total i would recommend looking at wyo nm total
 
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Posted: #62
all -
 
bastard - would still lean Nevada, might be tempted to look around for 10 or buy 1/2
 
kroch - true many that hit Arky against A&M were recouping from piling on them vs UGA anyway, QB play is much improved with Mallett rest of team not that much different than last year, upset is very possible, still like the war eagle chances
 
kaplan - i'd always take 3-1 as well
 
shakey - agree that NM-Wyo total sounds interesting, probably will look some more at that and one other today
 
remaining scores
 
Nevada 34 La Tech 20 - Wolfpack strong home fav over the years, LT not great road team
Washington 23 Arizona 21 - favor points with two fairly even teams, surface change
Bowling Green 31 Kent St 17 - not sure why this line dropped so much, maybe KSU found some more players around campus
Utah 30 Colo St 17 - having second thoughts about this game
Ariz St 38 Wash St 10 - WSU won't have much luck against pretty solid ASU defense, as long as Sullivan is mediocre or better ASU should roll
LSU 23 Florida 21 - doubt Tebow will play, even so believe LSU in this spot can play with them most of the way, not an easy team to blowout
Ohio St 27 Wisconsin 17 - Badgers usually play OSU pretty tough and possible the running games shorten the game some may help
NC State 38 Duke 17 - Duke could have trouble matching good showing last week and NCS offense and Wilson picking up 
Fres St 38 Hawaii 21 - Bulldogs looking pretty good on offense so far, remember home loss to UH last year, not convinced UH backup can match points
 
 
updated week 6
 
Kansas -19 (large)
Auburn -2 (large)
Alabama -5.5 (1.5 u)
Oklahoma -23 (1.5 u)
Utah -6.5
UConn +10.5
Bowling Green -7
Nevada -6.5
Washington +3
Arizona St -19.5
LSU +10 (hook)
Wisconsin +15
NC State -14 (hook)
Fresno St -9
BC-Va Tech under 44.5
Georgia-Tenn under 46.5
Mich-Iowa under 48.5
Army under 14.5 (team)
Kan St-Tex Tech over 58
 
 
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Posted: #63
Good luck as always Nos...I'm going to add Fresno as well.
 
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Posted: #64
Anyone looking at Nebraska -3.5.  My thoughts are Gabbert was former Husker committment.  Mizzou has not seen a defense like Neb.  Looks like a good play.  Any thoughts?
 
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Posted: #65
Kansas -19 (large)
Auburn -2 (large)
Alabama -5.5 (1.5 u)
Oklahoma -23 (1.5 u)
Utah -6.5
UConn +10.5
Bowling Green -7
Nevada -6.5
Washington +3
Arizona St -19.5
LSU +10 (hook)
Wisconsin +15
NC State -14 (hook)
Fresno St -9
BC-Va Tech under 44.5
Georgia-Tenn under 46.5
Mich-Iowa under 48.5
Army under 14.5 (team)
Kan St-Tex Tech over 58

On 5 with ya, only against you on 2 this week.  I like Arkansas to get it done, and I think CSU plays Utah tight, possibly wins.  But thats just my opinion.  Good luck as always buddy, can't believe I hadn't been in here yet. 
 
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Posted: #66
NOS,
 
GL this week
 
Nevada's spread is up to 10.5 today o/u being 58.  You think that line went too high to still take Nevada?  Keep em coming, and GL for the season
 
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Posted: #67
Bama 

Nevada 

Utah = $ $ $ $ 


GL this weekend! 
 
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Posted: #68
Nostras...you been sniffin' grandads old model airplane glue?  Arkansas routes Auburn.
 
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Posted: #69
washington, fresno, wisconsin

thoughts on okie st? msu? georgia? indiana? if you have some free time, would love the input. Thanks, get some this week
 
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Posted: #70
OKST has very good value, Arkansas exposed them as a bad team vs. the pass and OKST even without one their WR's is still a good team to bet on this week GL 
 
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Posted: #71
here are 5 games i like for sat.
 
alab -4.5  (miss o line is horrible)
navy -11  (rice cant stop anyone)
mich st -4 (i live in illinois and they just suck)
wisc +16 (too many points for an undefeated team)
ariz -3.5 (let down spot after notre dame)
 
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Posted: #72
GL NOS....by the way i noticed you are often throwing auburn in the mix, and often as a large bet....you a fan or just impressed so far?
 
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Posted: #73
 
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Posted: #74
all Nevada backers
 
whodey - good to see we agree on a few, i'm offsetting Utah somewhat, BOL bro
 
ryguy - lean Okie St, Indiana, Mich St and UGA, held off play on OSU with Bryant out
 
USM - have been on the Tigers this year feeling they were underrated after last year, not a true fan however have had them quite a few times over the past 10-15 seasons and respected as tough team that gives a good effort most times over the years, not to mention the cool war eagle flying in
 
reduced (offset) Alabama to 1.25 units - Nutt tough in these spots and offset Utah -6.5 down to 0.75 units (CSU +8)
 
adding
 
Wyoming under 28.5 team (0.75 u) - seems high for a team with 3 TD passes, avg 1.5 ppg last two versus NM, possible snow and wind
 
few small plays (all for 0.25 u) - Wash St under 14 (team), Ponder -45.5 passing yds (-220) over Nesbitt (even with high price, like finding money in the street), AJ Green -34.5 rec yds over Hancock, ML parlay (even) - VT, NC St, NW, KS, Ohio St and Ariz St
 
updated week 6
 
Kansas -19 (large)
Auburn -2 (large)
Oklahoma -23 (1.5 u)
Alabama -5.5 (1.25 u)
UConn +10.5
Bowling Green -7
Nevada -6.5
Washington +3
Arizona St -19.5
LSU +10 (hook)
Wisconsin +15
NC State -14 (hook)
Fresno St -9
Utah -6.5 (0.75 u)
BC-Va Tech under 44.5
Georgia-Tenn under 46.5
Mich-Iowa under 48.5
Army under 14.5 (team)
Kan St-Tex Tech over 58 (0.75 u)
Wyoming under 28.5 (0.75 u)
 
small plays (all 0.25 u) - Wash St u14 team, ML parlay (even) - VT, NC St, NW, KS, Ohio St and Ariz St, Ponder -45.5 passing yds (-220) over Nesbitt, AJ Green -34.5 rec yds over Hancock
 
might check out couple write in games later, BOL all
 
 
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Posted: #75
BOL Nos
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