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OFFICIAL WEEKLY SUCKER BETS OF THE WEEK

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by DAWGPRINT:

Mike...you must have gotten a lot of participation trophies growing up, LOL

I admire your ignorance....BOL an_cheers




Im not connecting the dots the dots.........I am 41, they didnt give out participation trophies back in the day - I had to settle for back to back CONF champion trophies......


I am just making a real common sense argument.

NOBODY knows for sure the final score or margin of victory before the game is played........There is just too many variables........Too many freak plays - fumbles, penalties, tipped passes INTS, ETC


I see you guys might be just be identifying "sucker bets" by what team the public is on and then fade - or if it looks too good then fade...........Thats a different argument.

Agree to disagree




 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by Matt3174:

I hate people that think they know it all but are just ignorant. You are a pathetic sheep if you can’t see traps! I do nothing but look for games that fit three things. 1. Public has a high percentage on one side. 2. People on the forum say are “locks”. 3. Teams that I think are great plays. If a team is all three fade it. Why wouldn’t the odds makers want games that the public will be heavy on? That juice 10% on every game is bull. Of course they say that. Look at Wednesday and Thursday. I’ve been up money ever since I quit betting greedy parlays. If you think I’m an idiot watch Auburn, Wake, IU, Michigan St., San Jose St., and Costal Carolina. Obviously all will not cover but most will, plus I’m already 4-0 to start the week. 



Are you saying that if you think a team is a great play - you fade them?

I think you will find its not that simple to fade the public - or people on the forum who use the word "locks"   If it were that simple and that basic it would be common knowledge - "just fade the public and cash your tickets" - Its not that easy......

I dont think you are an "idiot" - I dont bash people like that based on their statedgy...........GL Matt



 
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Posted: #53
So you are picking Kansas and Mich. State???
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by MikeMed:


They set the line and adjust the line in an attempt to get an = amount of action on each side so they can collect as much juice as possible........They make their money on that 10%.........Vegas does not like to gamble  - they play the locked percentages....A so called "trap line' is suggesting they want people to load up on one side.......That would be simply bad business.


John Kelly would disagree.
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by MikeMed:

I have seen more threads that are suggesting traps or sucker bets this week than ever before.


Traps dont exist.........To suggest so you are assuming the line makers/Vegas knows the outcome of the game before they set the line............They do not.

They set the line and adjust the line in an attempt to get an = amount of action on each side so they can collect as much juice as possible........They make their money on that 10%.........Vegas does not like to gamble  - they play the locked percentages....A so called "trap line' is suggesting they want people to load up on one side.......That would be simply bad business.

Games are decided by forced turnovers, dropped passes, fluke plays, kickers, missed tackles, penalties, inspired performances, dumb mistakes. coaching, etc.........

Nobody can accurately predict the above factors that decides who covers on a regular basis.......................Vegas is happy with their locked in millions and millions they rake in every week from juice.........

They make all their money from gamblers and not from gambling themselves.


I know its not popular or juicy and I know it makes a lot of you guys feel better to blame someone or something and declaring some sort of conspiracy but these games are decided by the factors I stated above.




8-0 so far on sucker bets and week 9 alone all dogs won outright.....out of those 4  in week 9 games where they set the line as road favorites..... they had the wrong teams favored? Why were they even favored if they all lost outright?  If you don't believe perception plays a role in linesmakers decisions then best of luck to you 

They are in the business in making as much money as they possibly can and if you don't believe that then there's nothing I can possibly do to persuade you on your beliefs but at some point you got to wake up..... 

This pertains to sports business and life in general....Your whole life you've been told ZERO tolerance on racism. Yet, Yuli Gurriel gets to play in the world series? 

Always do the right thing.....they tell you as a kid.....Yet, Pete Carroll USC scandal gets a super bowl ring  I can go on and on with college football with Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin.....

In college basketball.....Shall we continue with RIck Pitino and Louisville with Adidas?  

What do all these have in common? Money......


 
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Posted: #56
How about this ONE........I was listening to a sports podcast where a host had a guest that sets the lines at a certain casino.  They were discussing Week 10 in the NFL and the host brought up Rams at the Giants game.  This Schmuck was glamourizing the Rams as Super bowl contenders.  How Goff should be MVP only as his second year in the NFL its amazing! Giants are tanking as they went from super bowl contenders to a joke of a team.  He literally said " A JOKE OF A TEAM".  What pisses me more off is the host didn't even ask "then why he only set the line at +3.5 if giants are a joke of a team?"

Poor suckers who listen to the podcast will unload their bankroll on the rams because a car salesman lines maker sold the Rams.

You don't see that as sick that these people in the business do this!? 
 
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Posted: #57
Thanks bud! With you all the way 
 
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Posted: #58
Any chance you will be adding tomorrow or is it just the 2 plays for this week...thansk
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

How about this ONE........I was listening to a sports podcast where a host had a guest that sets the lines at a certain casino.  They were discussing Week 10 in the NFL and the host brought up Rams at the Giants game.  This Schmuck was glamourizing the Rams as Super bowl contenders.  How Goff should be MVP only as his second year in the NFL its amazing! Giants are tanking as they went from super bowl contenders to a joke of a team.  He literally said " A JOKE OF A TEAM".  What pisses me more off is the host didn't even ask "then why he only set the line at +3.5 if giants are a joke of a team?"

Poor suckers who listen to the podcast will unload their bankroll on the rams because a car salesman lines maker sold the Rams.

You don't see that as sick that these people in the business do this!? 
That's what I was saying...lmao!  you can lead em to the water...but you can't make em drink my friend!

 
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Posted: #60
AFN - based on your picks last week, I found some similarities on several games this week:

KY-4
LA Tech -4.5

Your thoughts?

 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:

So you are picking Kansas and Mich. State???

    

Man, it took a while for that generator/brain of yours to start working..   
"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by DAWGPRINT:

AFN - based on your picks last week, I found some similarities on several games this week:

KY-4
LA Tech -4.5

Your thoughts?


So some of my criteria checklist I follow to spot these sucker games did not tingle my sucker bet alert on those games.  For example the book I use didn't even have the Baylor Kansas game available till Thursday.  Kinda odd the game wasn't available till Thursday? 

Plus the numbers I look at stat wise did not fit the criteria for those games......bol 


 
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Posted: #63
 
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Posted: #64
AFN,

So pick is Kanas +7.5 
And
Michigan State +9.5????


I like 
UL Monroe +8.5  any though on this???

 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:

AFN,

So pick is Kanas +7.5 
And
Michigan State +9.5????


I like 
UL Monroe +8.5  any though on this???



Kansas +8

MSU +10 

bought the half points on those key numbers 

UL Monroe barely won against coastal Carolina in fact it was a shootout and their defense allowed 43 points to Coastal Carolina  would never touch that team goodluck if you decide to play 
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:


8-0 so far on sucker bets and week 9 alone all dogs won outright.....out of those 4  in week 9 games where they set the line as road favorites..... they had the wrong teams favored? Why were they even favored if they all lost outright?  If you don't believe perception plays a role in linesmakers decisions then best of luck to you 

They are in the business in making as much money as they possibly can and if you don't believe that then there's nothing I can possibly do to persuade you on your beliefs but at some point you got to wake up..... 

This pertains to sports business and life in general....Your whole life you've been told ZERO tolerance on racism. Yet, Yuli Gurriel gets to play in the world series? 

Always do the right thing.....they tell you as a kid.....Yet, Pete Carroll USC scandal gets a super bowl ring  I can go on and on with college football with Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin.....

In college basketball.....Shall we continue with RIck Pitino and Louisville with Adidas?  

What do all these have in common? Money......





I wish you continued success..........Im not one to name call or bash people although the last couple days people have been all over me - distorting my record and name calling.............I like positive healthy coversation........Are their games that are fixed?  YES but a lot of people in here think every time they lose a close cover the game was fixed...............

As far as who and how the games are fixed you have to look at risk/reward.........For example Nick Saban is making over 11 million a season - he has 10+ years left of coaching - over 100 million in future earnings......He is not going to risk in job, reputation and all that money to fix games...........Lane Kiffin is making 2 million a year and a lot more in a year or 2 when he goes back to a power 5 CONF as he has been very successful last season and so far this season......

I am convinced QBS who are not going pro and refs fix games have fixed games but not on any kind of regular basis..........They have little to lose and lots to gain

I will be tuning into your picks and maybe you are on to something......I have been doing this for 23 years and have yet to see anybody hit over 60% on a year to year consistent basis......The best in the world hit around 57% consisently.

Good luck AFN


 
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Posted: #67
My line is Baylor -8
Penn -8
Still good bud
 
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Posted: #68
Thanks AFN...i will leave monroe..

I have played $900 parlay on 
Kanas +7.5
Mich state +10 - (this fit into my system)

I hope we wins... If i win im going big on NYG +3.5....
BOL 
 
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Posted: #69
Always interesting reading about the contrarian plays. Good luck guys.
 
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Posted: #70
What are the identifiers to spot a sucker play?
 
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Posted: #71

Maybe mich st , simply because now we all forget about psu, seriously they should score at ease vs MSU def.   you actually think MSU defense is better then mich and Ohio st?  They certainly didn’t stop psu offense.

 
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Posted: #72
Ahhhhh!  Home DAWG!  got it!  BOL
 
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Posted: #73
Bol bud
 
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Posted: #74
Kansas quarterback Stanley looks like a guy that use to sell burnt CD's on campus  also the minute I saw Kansas run a double reverse on their own 15 game was done with that clueless playcalling.....

Adding sucker bet Oklahoma +1 for the few that read I'm taking Oklahoma state -1 
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

Kansas quarterback Stanley looks like a guy that use to sell burnt CD's on campus  also the minute I saw Kansas run a double reverse on their own 15 game was done with that clueless playcalling.....

Adding sucker bet Oklahoma +1 for the few that read I'm taking Oklahoma state -1 
yeah bud! Look like the best sucker bet was Ohio st
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