Ohio State/Northwestern breakdown

I had the Bucks teased down last week over Wisky....but I did not like what I saw out of the defense at home.  That was a situation that should have been a "shut down" type of atmosphere, and yet they gave up right at 400 yds of offense.

Northwestern can attack  in a multitude of different ways, with Cain Kolter running read option, and Trevor Simien throwing the ball.  I think that Simien is the dark horse in this game......he has the ability to light it up if need be, and should have success against OSU through the air..they leaked 295 to Stave for Wisconsin.  Strikes me as a bit much to give up at home.

This Game could develop into a shootout.  One has to figure that Braxton Miller is going to get his #'s....Northwestern is going to need to have a gameplan in place to stick the wood to him when he runs, or it will be a 42-35 type of shootout.

I think Fitzgerald is up to the task, but NW is going to have to let it all hang out to win; and Fitz has a tendency to go conservative in spots and trust his D a little too much....and that is not good when your D is ranked 119th vs the pass.  Not good at all.

Of course, the D numbers for NW are skewed a bit because they have boatraced weaker opposition thus far, and have gone to a baggy zone early on in games, and also played everybody on the roster.

There is value here, but I have to go deeper to find if it is worth my money.

Any input is welcomed.....

I'll offer you what I can.....

**  Ohio State offense can, and will score on NW defense.  NW will not be as tough on the run game, LB'ing is not the same caliber as Wisky

**  Ohio State will be able to pass effectively aganst NW also, as you stated NW pass defense is definately a weak spot.

**  NW will have the advantage of knowing that CJ Barnett is out for the year at Safety, and Roby is coming off the worst week of his career.  But does NW have a receiver the quality of Abroditis to take advantage of the relatively weak OSU d backfield.  Don't know for sure, but I think Abro is all big 10.  I think the buckeye D backfield might look a bit stronger in this game.

**  How can you say that Ohio State's defense was poor at home?  They held the BEST running team in the Big 10 to slightly more than 100 yards rushing...I think you discount the quality of team that Wisky has, they are good and they always play well in Columbus.

This is going to be a good and tough game.  In the end, the key factor for me is that I dont think NW is going to be able to keep up scoring with Ohio State.  Haven't looked at the over on this game yet, but I might be tempted to take it....

Personally, I will have something on the buckeyes to cover this....but will likely wait until gametime to see the line...and might even buy the points down like I did last week against wisky...couldn't take the 7 points, bought it down to 5, and won my bet....

Good luck this week....

Thanks for the input....interesting points. I agree with nearly all of them that you made for Ohio State....they will score, running and throwing.  NW will be flying early vs the run, but they will wear down, and eventually begin to leak.   "Eventually" means mid 2nd quarter.

I am not really interested in recapping last Saturday's Wisconsin game, but I do think that Wisconsin was forced out of the run game because they got behind...10pts at half, and 17 in the 3rd quarter.  Situationally, Wisconsin wasn't allowed to pound it.  I think that if the game was closer, or Wisky got a lead, then the rushing yards would be substantially higher.

Wisconsin is a good football team, I am not arguing that point. But OSU was playing essentially a National Title Quarterfinal game....at home, vs a respected opponent as the Game of the Week.  For a squad that has not lost a game in nearly a season and a half, the defense did not blow me away...I was expecting to see Wisky get stoned, much like Ole Miss did in Bama (not an SEC idiot Homer making the comparison of OSU to Bama, just using Bama shutting out Ole Miss as an example of a high ranked team playing dominate defense at home.)

In my humble opinion, the situation will never be better to play defensively for OSU than it was in the Wisky game....and they still gave up 400yds of O and 24 pts. 

And if that is the best that OSU can play on defense, then yes I have questions about them holding up on the road vs a team that will attack in many different ways, enter NW.

A few more things on OSU D....they gave up 503 yds vs Cal, but dominated vs SDSU, Buffalo, and the other cupcakes...in my eyes that could be why the defensive stats look pretty good for OSU.

In any case, thanks for the input and discussion...still sorting threw all of this stuff, and it may fall into a no-play or a shot on the over.