Seeing value in these games paying more ++ than they should! I have some 4 dog parlays as well as a few RRs: BOLTA
Syracuse +540 --> Syracuse beat Liberty at home and is wrecking opponents in the dome. Syracuse lost to Wake in OT last week, and Clemson lost to NC State. I see these teams as all having strong D and being in the same league.
Akron +710 --> Akron beat Bowling Green, who has decent defense. Miami, OH is 2-4. These are two bottom feeders. Akron could win this.
Duke +310 --> Virginia lost to UNC. Duke also lost to UNC. Duke's only other losses come at 4 points and 3 points. For teams with opposite styles of play (Virginia passing, Duke running) they have identical stats at ppg, 3rd down conversion, ypg, ppg on defense.
TCU +310 --> QB rated 159, running 5.7ypc, 54% 3rd down conversion, this is an offense that is in any game. Oklahoma will force the pass. I say, no problem. Oklahoma has pretty shabby pass D anyway.
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Seeing value in these games paying more ++ than they should! I have some 4 dog parlays as well as a few RRs: BOLTA
Syracuse +540 --> Syracuse beat Liberty at home and is wrecking opponents in the dome. Syracuse lost to Wake in OT last week, and Clemson lost to NC State. I see these teams as all having strong D and being in the same league.
Akron +710 --> Akron beat Bowling Green, who has decent defense. Miami, OH is 2-4. These are two bottom feeders. Akron could win this.
Duke +310 --> Virginia lost to UNC. Duke also lost to UNC. Duke's only other losses come at 4 points and 3 points. For teams with opposite styles of play (Virginia passing, Duke running) they have identical stats at ppg, 3rd down conversion, ypg, ppg on defense.
TCU +310 --> QB rated 159, running 5.7ypc, 54% 3rd down conversion, this is an offense that is in any game. Oklahoma will force the pass. I say, no problem. Oklahoma has pretty shabby pass D anyway.
Southern Miss +610 --> Long odds, I know. But UAB is an upper bottom feeder. Scoring 25p and giving up 22p, they don't give themselves much margin. Southern's D measures up to UAB. Southen has -8 TO ratio. If they have a clean game, they will be right in it.
Purdue +430 --> What amazing odds. For a team that gives up 15ppg, you will never see these odds. Purdue D keeps them in any game. A strong passing offense, they have a good shot. Iowa only runs 3.2/ypc and qb rates 133. With a TO margin of +14, they get 100 fewer yards per game than Purdue. How many yards will Purdue outdrive them in a clean game? Love the chances for that.
New Mexico +310 --> New Mexico numbers are terrible. They can't win a game. But, Colorado St is not good. New Mexico is at home and just outgunned slightly at each level of play. New Mexico has one break-out game each season. This could be it.
Arizona +250 --> Arizona outdrives Colorado 363y to 240y and outscores them 17p to 14p. Colorado only scores 14ppg and gives up 24. 3rd down percentage of 30%. 101 qb rating. Arizona is awful. Terrible. But these are two bad teams facing off, and it as anyone's game for the taking.
Hawai'i +470 --> Nevada looks a lot like Fresno St, who Hawai'i upset with aid of 6 TOS. This should be a passing battle. Both teams have terrible passing D. Interceptions should come into play, and anyone can win it.
50/50 Games paying more than +100:
--> Miami FL, South Florida, Eastern Michigan, BYU, Oklahoma St, Central Michigan, Kent St, Auburn, UTEP
Friends,
I love the long odds on these games this weekend. Not many will pay off, but throw a few darts out there and you may get lucky with a big big payday. I like the stories in the stats. Tail or fade, best of luck.
-Peacemaker
0
continued:
Southern Miss +610 --> Long odds, I know. But UAB is an upper bottom feeder. Scoring 25p and giving up 22p, they don't give themselves much margin. Southern's D measures up to UAB. Southen has -8 TO ratio. If they have a clean game, they will be right in it.
Purdue +430 --> What amazing odds. For a team that gives up 15ppg, you will never see these odds. Purdue D keeps them in any game. A strong passing offense, they have a good shot. Iowa only runs 3.2/ypc and qb rates 133. With a TO margin of +14, they get 100 fewer yards per game than Purdue. How many yards will Purdue outdrive them in a clean game? Love the chances for that.
New Mexico +310 --> New Mexico numbers are terrible. They can't win a game. But, Colorado St is not good. New Mexico is at home and just outgunned slightly at each level of play. New Mexico has one break-out game each season. This could be it.
Arizona +250 --> Arizona outdrives Colorado 363y to 240y and outscores them 17p to 14p. Colorado only scores 14ppg and gives up 24. 3rd down percentage of 30%. 101 qb rating. Arizona is awful. Terrible. But these are two bad teams facing off, and it as anyone's game for the taking.
Hawai'i +470 --> Nevada looks a lot like Fresno St, who Hawai'i upset with aid of 6 TOS. This should be a passing battle. Both teams have terrible passing D. Interceptions should come into play, and anyone can win it.
50/50 Games paying more than +100:
--> Miami FL, South Florida, Eastern Michigan, BYU, Oklahoma St, Central Michigan, Kent St, Auburn, UTEP
Friends,
I love the long odds on these games this weekend. Not many will pay off, but throw a few darts out there and you may get lucky with a big big payday. I like the stories in the stats. Tail or fade, best of luck.
My potential round robin selectikns: boston college bowling green Air force ok state CMU kent state texas state
In common, we have Boston College, Air Force, Oklahoma St, Kent St, and Texas St. I didn't mark BC and AF as I felt the odds were correct, not great. But I do think BC will knock out NC State, who is due for a bad game (even though they are in my top five favorite teams with Liberty, Wake, Coastal Carolina, Cincinnati). Air Force game is tough to cap as Boise has had rough schedule. But I am looking forward to that game.
Quote Originally Posted by Shylock504:
@PeAceMaKer7690 Was at that Southern Mississippi game last Friday and they stunk up the place. Rushed like 32 times for 15 yds. Buyer beware. Lol.
Southern Miss is terrible. Absolutely horrible. But ANY game vs an opponent that is weak you have a shot. The key is that Southern's DEFENSE measures up to UAB. So all it takes is one bad offensive game for UAB, and let's be honest, that is a real decent shot of happening. At +610 odds this bet is a steal.
1
Quote Originally Posted by steponaduck:
My potential round robin selectikns: boston college bowling green Air force ok state CMU kent state texas state
In common, we have Boston College, Air Force, Oklahoma St, Kent St, and Texas St. I didn't mark BC and AF as I felt the odds were correct, not great. But I do think BC will knock out NC State, who is due for a bad game (even though they are in my top five favorite teams with Liberty, Wake, Coastal Carolina, Cincinnati). Air Force game is tough to cap as Boise has had rough schedule. But I am looking forward to that game.
Quote Originally Posted by Shylock504:
@PeAceMaKer7690 Was at that Southern Mississippi game last Friday and they stunk up the place. Rushed like 32 times for 15 yds. Buyer beware. Lol.
Southern Miss is terrible. Absolutely horrible. But ANY game vs an opponent that is weak you have a shot. The key is that Southern's DEFENSE measures up to UAB. So all it takes is one bad offensive game for UAB, and let's be honest, that is a real decent shot of happening. At +610 odds this bet is a steal.
i have watched TONS of UAB vs USM football over the years, and watched these teams extensively this season...USM will not win vs UAB...no matter what happens on Saturday, there is not a bath to USM winning.
Until the wallet is full.
1
@PeAceMaKer7690
i have watched TONS of UAB vs USM football over the years, and watched these teams extensively this season...USM will not win vs UAB...no matter what happens on Saturday, there is not a bath to USM winning.
well there is this gem. thanks for your comments guys. I only have like $50 exposed here. If it hits in one of my parlays, I make thousands. Just a small risk. Just need a game like this:
well there is this gem. thanks for your comments guys. I only have like $50 exposed here. If it hits in one of my parlays, I make thousands. Just a small risk. Just need a game like this:
Hard enough to hit an ATS parlay let alone an UDML parlay. They are out there and fun when you hit that home run!!! So tough to do.
Too bad some idiots bashed Train69 for posting longshot UDML parlays. Guess a disclaimer is required like "don't touch stove when hot".
Anything can happen in college football, Akron beat Bowling Green, who beat Minnesota, who shutout Colorado, who hung within three of Texas A&M, who beat Bama by three. Guess that makes Akron better than Bama. Throw out the logic and find them UDML's.
Good Luck this week!!!!
1
Hard enough to hit an ATS parlay let alone an UDML parlay. They are out there and fun when you hit that home run!!! So tough to do.
Too bad some idiots bashed Train69 for posting longshot UDML parlays. Guess a disclaimer is required like "don't touch stove when hot".
Anything can happen in college football, Akron beat Bowling Green, who beat Minnesota, who shutout Colorado, who hung within three of Texas A&M, who beat Bama by three. Guess that makes Akron better than Bama. Throw out the logic and find them UDML's.
For sure, UDMLP are for entertainment and not core profitable betting. It's just cheaper entertainment than a bad movie rental. You can throw $50 in a 50-1 parlay each week. After 50 weeks, you have $0. BBUUUTTTTT, you also have the fun and excitement of all the weeks you hit 3/4 or 4/5 of your parlay and lose the last game. And, there is a 50% chance your parlay hits twice, and you are up $2500. Obviously, if you have an edge in picking underdogs, your expected value could be much higher than 0. But there really isn't enough games to bet in your life to really know if you have an edge or not. I've only bet underdogs in CFB for two years, and I am up $500 on $2000 risked. So 25% over two years, 12.5% return. So I have decent roi for now. But I'll assume I've gotten lucky and will be at 0% return eventually. But, I love the feeling of knowing I have $1k bet this weekend (even if it all loses I'm up the $500). It's a free ride. So fun.
0
@UNIMAN
For sure, UDMLP are for entertainment and not core profitable betting. It's just cheaper entertainment than a bad movie rental. You can throw $50 in a 50-1 parlay each week. After 50 weeks, you have $0. BBUUUTTTTT, you also have the fun and excitement of all the weeks you hit 3/4 or 4/5 of your parlay and lose the last game. And, there is a 50% chance your parlay hits twice, and you are up $2500. Obviously, if you have an edge in picking underdogs, your expected value could be much higher than 0. But there really isn't enough games to bet in your life to really know if you have an edge or not. I've only bet underdogs in CFB for two years, and I am up $500 on $2000 risked. So 25% over two years, 12.5% return. So I have decent roi for now. But I'll assume I've gotten lucky and will be at 0% return eventually. But, I love the feeling of knowing I have $1k bet this weekend (even if it all loses I'm up the $500). It's a free ride. So fun.
This game has nothing to do with this game. None of the southern miss players from that game are here, and they have had three coaching regime changes and 5 different starting QBs since then.
I don’t hate the UDML parlay and like many of your plays. But adding USM into it is simply lighting your money on fire. They will not win.
did you see how easily UTEP handled them?? UAB has a substantially better defense than UTEP. UTEP D is serviceable for c-USA and has played really well shutting down crappy offenses.
UAB front 7 could play in the acc. BIG differenxe.
Until the wallet is full.
0
@PeAceMaKer7690
This game has nothing to do with this game. None of the southern miss players from that game are here, and they have had three coaching regime changes and 5 different starting QBs since then.
I don’t hate the UDML parlay and like many of your plays. But adding USM into it is simply lighting your money on fire. They will not win.
did you see how easily UTEP handled them?? UAB has a substantially better defense than UTEP. UTEP D is serviceable for c-USA and has played really well shutting down crappy offenses.
UAB front 7 could play in the acc. BIG differenxe.
Roger that. Focusing on other plays. Not gonna cry over it. 6-1 on a matchup that has been 50/50 over the life is fine by me. If you always bet the underdog in this series, you would be $$$$.
On other UDML parlays, I am going to add some exposure to Duke/Auburn/Kent St and TCU/Purdue/Akron and Cal/New Mexico/Arizona. I just love all these teams getting +300 to +400. Usually I hate those odds as they never win, but these are some very good teams. Hell, you can take Kentucky for +1200 and they are undefeated. I've only got them in a couple longshots, but the point is, this week there will be a few longodd plays that hit. 1/1000 shot of naming it, but it will be there. Might even be a couple 4-way UDMP that hit this week for very long odds.
0
@steponaduck
Roger that. Focusing on other plays. Not gonna cry over it. 6-1 on a matchup that has been 50/50 over the life is fine by me. If you always bet the underdog in this series, you would be $$$$.
On other UDML parlays, I am going to add some exposure to Duke/Auburn/Kent St and TCU/Purdue/Akron and Cal/New Mexico/Arizona. I just love all these teams getting +300 to +400. Usually I hate those odds as they never win, but these are some very good teams. Hell, you can take Kentucky for +1200 and they are undefeated. I've only got them in a couple longshots, but the point is, this week there will be a few longodd plays that hit. 1/1000 shot of naming it, but it will be there. Might even be a couple 4-way UDMP that hit this week for very long odds.
Thoughts on San Diego State? Been looking at them.
They are actually undefeated and ranked top 25. They have the best or one of the best rush defenses in football at 50 yards per game. But this team was .500 last year (and San Jose St was 7-1 last year). I think the spread is accurate at -8.5. I like Sam Jose as a ML dog because QB is rated higher and average catch is longer. San Jose has turnover problems with -9 margin. If they turn it over, San Diego will cover. IF they don't, they could upset. Lot's of ways to look at this game, but the spread is probably right on the money.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Shylock504:
Thoughts on San Diego State? Been looking at them.
They are actually undefeated and ranked top 25. They have the best or one of the best rush defenses in football at 50 yards per game. But this team was .500 last year (and San Jose St was 7-1 last year). I think the spread is accurate at -8.5. I like Sam Jose as a ML dog because QB is rated higher and average catch is longer. San Jose has turnover problems with -9 margin. If they turn it over, San Diego will cover. IF they don't, they could upset. Lot's of ways to look at this game, but the spread is probably right on the money.
I didn't cap this game. I don't cap games when I think the better team will win by more than 1 score. The problem with these games is you have to calculate number of field goals, punts, and TDs and time of possession. Lot's of factors. I assume the books are very good at this and I tend to stay far away. Unless it is one of my top 5 favorite teams, who I will bet just because I like watching them play. Best of luck however you decide to bet this game.
1
@Shylock504
I didn't cap this game. I don't cap games when I think the better team will win by more than 1 score. The problem with these games is you have to calculate number of field goals, punts, and TDs and time of possession. Lot's of factors. I assume the books are very good at this and I tend to stay far away. Unless it is one of my top 5 favorite teams, who I will bet just because I like watching them play. Best of luck however you decide to bet this game.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Throw out the logic and find them UDML's.
Hot Forum Topics
