I will take the other side of that in 2 ways. First I think its a bold call, everyone else is expecting huge drop from these teams. Second I really think Houston gets smoked by OU in week 1 and I think Iowa does not cover vs Miami Ohio. I would expect 8-9 win seasons from both.
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I will take the other side of that in 2 ways. First I think its a bold call, everyone else is expecting huge drop from these teams. Second I really think Houston gets smoked by OU in week 1 and I think Iowa does not cover vs Miami Ohio. I would expect 8-9 win seasons from both.
I think Phil has done a great job with his surprise teams over the years, and I think they typically are very good versus the spread early in the season. I will not be betting against Houston and Iowa in week 1 though.
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I think Phil has done a great job with his surprise teams over the years, and I think they typically are very good versus the spread early in the season. I will not be betting against Houston and Iowa in week 1 though.
That was meant to be will be betting against Houston and Iowa. OU-10 vs Houston is actually my 2nd highest rated bet of week 1.
So I guess you forgot what UH did to FSU in the Peach Bowl last year and thats a team that is highly regarded this season as a national title contender........ Also that game vs OU is in HOUSTON. I would not bet against UH and wouldn't be surprised with an outright win for UH.
Also the are like 10 games that are more appealing before falling on a side in this one from a pure moneymaking perspective....
WVU -10, SMU -11.5, Clemson -7.5, UCLA +2, UGA -3 just to name a few
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Quote Originally Posted by VEGASJASON:
That was meant to be will be betting against Houston and Iowa. OU-10 vs Houston is actually my 2nd highest rated bet of week 1.
So I guess you forgot what UH did to FSU in the Peach Bowl last year and thats a team that is highly regarded this season as a national title contender........ Also that game vs OU is in HOUSTON. I would not bet against UH and wouldn't be surprised with an outright win for UH.
Also the are like 10 games that are more appealing before falling on a side in this one from a pure moneymaking perspective....
WVU -10, SMU -11.5, Clemson -7.5, UCLA +2, UGA -3 just to name a few
You know Phil Steele, use to be an amazing capper he fell off 5 years ago or so and I started to use other guys and my own capping instead. Congrats to him for his passion and work ethic (getting espn to come up with the FPI and now so openly talk about point spreads the past 2 years against the desires of the college football bosses). I have nothing but respect for Phil Steele. I have a website I will not disclose that to be is the gold standard of sports handicappers. Now talking about Iowa , they did only outgain opponents by 45 yards a game, benefited by +11 turnover margin, only blowout wins North Texas and Pudue. Not a huge fan of the skill position guys all 3 put up mighty average numbers last year. Leading Rb and WR not big play threats.
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You know Phil Steele, use to be an amazing capper he fell off 5 years ago or so and I started to use other guys and my own capping instead. Congrats to him for his passion and work ethic (getting espn to come up with the FPI and now so openly talk about point spreads the past 2 years against the desires of the college football bosses). I have nothing but respect for Phil Steele. I have a website I will not disclose that to be is the gold standard of sports handicappers. Now talking about Iowa , they did only outgain opponents by 45 yards a game, benefited by +11 turnover margin, only blowout wins North Texas and Pudue. Not a huge fan of the skill position guys all 3 put up mighty average numbers last year. Leading Rb and WR not big play threats.
The Lucky I watched almost every play, I had Houston and the Over. (It was a great game bowl game win over FSU) The game being in Houston is little home field, OU will have between 30 to 50% of the crowd. Also in all games like this the lower bowl crowd matters more than the upper deck crowd. The deeper fan base teams always buy up more of the better seats. I have mad respect for the Houston coach and QB. I will stand by my stance that Houston overachieved last season, and OU is a much better team to start this season.
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The Lucky I watched almost every play, I had Houston and the Over. (It was a great game bowl game win over FSU) The game being in Houston is little home field, OU will have between 30 to 50% of the crowd. Also in all games like this the lower bowl crowd matters more than the upper deck crowd. The deeper fan base teams always buy up more of the better seats. I have mad respect for the Houston coach and QB. I will stand by my stance that Houston overachieved last season, and OU is a much better team to start this season.
On a semi related note. I am a Texas fan who would love Houston to be one of the expansion teams if the Big 12 goes back to 12 teams. Would love to ditch WV (but I'm getting off course). Just wanted you to know I have no disrespect for Houston.
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On a semi related note. I am a Texas fan who would love Houston to be one of the expansion teams if the Big 12 goes back to 12 teams. Would love to ditch WV (but I'm getting off course). Just wanted you to know I have no disrespect for Houston.
FSU looked defeated in that bowl game playing a Hou team that showed up ready to play really reminded me of L'ville Fla a couple years back... Different story this game so I give a little less credence to the bowl game other than they can show up and play when it counts.
The key matchup I'm going to spot in this one is that Hou run D vs Okla's rush.... Hou held every team under 4ypc LY and FSU <1ypc ... when cook couldn't get going early the team collapsed....
When Okla got the run going LY the O went gangbusters, but UT, Clem, Tenn they were held to 1,2,3 ypc respectively and they had to eek out that Tenn win.. There seems to be enough continuity here to say this pattern could carry over if the matchup is favorable for Houston, especially 1st half with the fresh D legs. Noted though Okla Mixon and Perine should be a pretty great duo this year.
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FSU looked defeated in that bowl game playing a Hou team that showed up ready to play really reminded me of L'ville Fla a couple years back... Different story this game so I give a little less credence to the bowl game other than they can show up and play when it counts.
The key matchup I'm going to spot in this one is that Hou run D vs Okla's rush.... Hou held every team under 4ypc LY and FSU <1ypc ... when cook couldn't get going early the team collapsed....
When Okla got the run going LY the O went gangbusters, but UT, Clem, Tenn they were held to 1,2,3 ypc respectively and they had to eek out that Tenn win.. There seems to be enough continuity here to say this pattern could carry over if the matchup is favorable for Houston, especially 1st half with the fresh D legs. Noted though Okla Mixon and Perine should be a pretty great duo this year.
You know Phil Steele, use to be an amazing capper he fell off 5 years ago or so and I started to use other guys and my own capping instead. Congrats to him for his passion and work ethic (getting espn to come up with the FPI and now so openly talk about point spreads the past 2 years against the desires of the college football bosses). I have nothing but respect for Phil Steele. I have a website I will not disclose that to be is the gold standard of sports handicappers. Now talking about Iowa , they did only outgain opponents by 45 yards a game, benefited by +11 turnover margin, only blowout wins North Texas and Pudue. Not a huge fan of the skill position guys all 3 put up mighty average numbers last year. Leading Rb and WR not big play threats.
Iowa plays bend don't break defense and mainly plays their base defense. They don't care about giving up yardage. They force offenses to drive down the field without giving up big plays. Doing so forces the offense to make mistakes. +11 turnovers is directly related to the yards surrendered.
Skill players- QB- CJB played banged up pretty much the whole year and still had a great season. He will be 100% with a top 5 OL in the nation if not the best.
RB- Will be running back by committee. They will have the pounder in Daniels (who is now healthy), Wadley who dominated a good NW defense last year when he was the main guy and Mitchell who is a great 3rd down blocker and pass catcher out of the backfield.
WR- Vandeburg might be the best possession WR in the nation. He was only one of two WR who did not have a dropped pass last year (65 receptions to boot)...There will be several young guys ready to step up and they have speed that they did not have last year. If they can get separation at the LOS the offense will be dominant. They also bring back Kittle at TE which will a mismatch vs most defenses and they have a stud 4* recruit coming out this year too in Fant.
Iowa is a lock to go over the 8.5 win total this year. Easiest total on board
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Quote Originally Posted by VEGASJASON:
You know Phil Steele, use to be an amazing capper he fell off 5 years ago or so and I started to use other guys and my own capping instead. Congrats to him for his passion and work ethic (getting espn to come up with the FPI and now so openly talk about point spreads the past 2 years against the desires of the college football bosses). I have nothing but respect for Phil Steele. I have a website I will not disclose that to be is the gold standard of sports handicappers. Now talking about Iowa , they did only outgain opponents by 45 yards a game, benefited by +11 turnover margin, only blowout wins North Texas and Pudue. Not a huge fan of the skill position guys all 3 put up mighty average numbers last year. Leading Rb and WR not big play threats.
Iowa plays bend don't break defense and mainly plays their base defense. They don't care about giving up yardage. They force offenses to drive down the field without giving up big plays. Doing so forces the offense to make mistakes. +11 turnovers is directly related to the yards surrendered.
Skill players- QB- CJB played banged up pretty much the whole year and still had a great season. He will be 100% with a top 5 OL in the nation if not the best.
RB- Will be running back by committee. They will have the pounder in Daniels (who is now healthy), Wadley who dominated a good NW defense last year when he was the main guy and Mitchell who is a great 3rd down blocker and pass catcher out of the backfield.
WR- Vandeburg might be the best possession WR in the nation. He was only one of two WR who did not have a dropped pass last year (65 receptions to boot)...There will be several young guys ready to step up and they have speed that they did not have last year. If they can get separation at the LOS the offense will be dominant. They also bring back Kittle at TE which will a mismatch vs most defenses and they have a stud 4* recruit coming out this year too in Fant.
Iowa is a lock to go over the 8.5 win total this year. Easiest total on board
Minimo are you the play by play guy for Iowa radio? I like Iowa this year and you have good points, but you sure your not overhyping a bit? The skill guys are pretty mundane.
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Minimo are you the play by play guy for Iowa radio? I like Iowa this year and you have good points, but you sure your not overhyping a bit? The skill guys are pretty mundane.
Minimo are you the play by play guy for Iowa radio? I like Iowa this year and you have good points, but you sure your not overhyping a bit? The skill guys are pretty mundane.
Or you have your Nebraska blinders on? Several websites have picked them to win the West. They have the best CB in the nation and a strong defense overall. Beathard is a dark horse Heisman candidate. They will be favored in 11 games and a 2 point home dog to Michigan. Even Cowherd says they have a shot to make the playoff and he hates Iowa.
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Quote Originally Posted by VEGASJASON:
Minimo are you the play by play guy for Iowa radio? I like Iowa this year and you have good points, but you sure your not overhyping a bit? The skill guys are pretty mundane.
Or you have your Nebraska blinders on? Several websites have picked them to win the West. They have the best CB in the nation and a strong defense overall. Beathard is a dark horse Heisman candidate. They will be favored in 11 games and a 2 point home dog to Michigan. Even Cowherd says they have a shot to make the playoff and he hates Iowa.
I happen to be a Nebraska fan, and will be taking Nebraska in week 1 to romp Fresno St. Otherwise I am pretty neutral on Nebraska this year. I expect t the West to be a wide open race this year. I agree Iowa is the best of the West with some margin, Nebraska-Wisconsin-Northwestern are a close bunch behind them.
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I happen to be a Nebraska fan, and will be taking Nebraska in week 1 to romp Fresno St. Otherwise I am pretty neutral on Nebraska this year. I expect t the West to be a wide open race this year. I agree Iowa is the best of the West with some margin, Nebraska-Wisconsin-Northwestern are a close bunch behind them.
Let me summarize this way on Iowa, I love the O-line and Defense. The schedule is very favorable. I think the Qb is overrated, think the Rb skill is middle of the pack for the Big 10 and WR position is near bottom of Big 10. Still adds up to a very good season and over 8.5 wins is a solid bet.
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Let me summarize this way on Iowa, I love the O-line and Defense. The schedule is very favorable. I think the Qb is overrated, think the Rb skill is middle of the pack for the Big 10 and WR position is near bottom of Big 10. Still adds up to a very good season and over 8.5 wins is a solid bet.
TheLuckyDc do you really think Houston will have a home field advantage on a Labor Day weekend versus Houston? Yes Houston looked great vs Florida St. The carry over hype from that game only focuses OU and takes away point spread value from Houston. Mad props to the Houston coach for his amazing turn around of that program. OU is a hell of a force this year on offense and defense both. Houston will have a drop off on both sides of the ball a bit from last season. Houston was an amazing +21 in Turnovers. Also Houston Game score grade out of 67.5 last season while OU was 77.5 not the same as a power ranking. this is on 100 pt basically a 100 is beating Alabama by 21 and a 0 is losing to Smu by 30.
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TheLuckyDc do you really think Houston will have a home field advantage on a Labor Day weekend versus Houston? Yes Houston looked great vs Florida St. The carry over hype from that game only focuses OU and takes away point spread value from Houston. Mad props to the Houston coach for his amazing turn around of that program. OU is a hell of a force this year on offense and defense both. Houston will have a drop off on both sides of the ball a bit from last season. Houston was an amazing +21 in Turnovers. Also Houston Game score grade out of 67.5 last season while OU was 77.5 not the same as a power ranking. this is on 100 pt basically a 100 is beating Alabama by 21 and a 0 is losing to Smu by 30.
you (some of) guys are killing me with this knee jerk analysis...."well the spring game !.....well the bowl game!...." >> EXHIBITION GAMES.....for the most part = MEANINGLESS
STEP BACK.......take a deep breath.....AX yourself WHAT TF....is really going on here?
eg. IOWA.....turn to page 99 in Steele mag *under O & D stats..... draw a line under 2012 for both O&D
Why?....because Ferentz changed coordinators then * getting BETTER or WORSE?
O- pts 5.3 19 > 26 > 28 > 31 rush 3.7 > 4.2 > 4.1 > 4.5 yds/play 4.7 > 5.3 > 5.5 > 5.8 yds/pt 16 > 14.3 > 14.2 > 12.5 *sacks worse 2016?.....QB back ... RB + receivers and OL look about the same.....any guesses as to how they'll be this year?....
2016?...lose a few key guys...but 8 guys back / 12/15 tacklers.....any clue as to how they'll play this year?
Ferentz's teams seem to play better when not much is expected...weak home favorite / strong when favored on the road....play great off a loss....look for teams that can exploit or be exploited by their O @ D styles $$ coming off a (huge) overachieving season...I would expect them to be a bit overvalued TY.....esp as a big home favorite....see Iowa St week 2...if lose at Minny....look to play on at Purdue the next week....etc.....etc........
ALL THAT OTHER CRAP......DOES NOT MATTER.....
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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you (some of) guys are killing me with this knee jerk analysis...."well the spring game !.....well the bowl game!...." >> EXHIBITION GAMES.....for the most part = MEANINGLESS
STEP BACK.......take a deep breath.....AX yourself WHAT TF....is really going on here?
eg. IOWA.....turn to page 99 in Steele mag *under O & D stats..... draw a line under 2012 for both O&D
Why?....because Ferentz changed coordinators then * getting BETTER or WORSE?
O- pts 5.3 19 > 26 > 28 > 31 rush 3.7 > 4.2 > 4.1 > 4.5 yds/play 4.7 > 5.3 > 5.5 > 5.8 yds/pt 16 > 14.3 > 14.2 > 12.5 *sacks worse 2016?.....QB back ... RB + receivers and OL look about the same.....any guesses as to how they'll be this year?....
2016?...lose a few key guys...but 8 guys back / 12/15 tacklers.....any clue as to how they'll play this year?
Ferentz's teams seem to play better when not much is expected...weak home favorite / strong when favored on the road....play great off a loss....look for teams that can exploit or be exploited by their O @ D styles $$ coming off a (huge) overachieving season...I would expect them to be a bit overvalued TY.....esp as a big home favorite....see Iowa St week 2...if lose at Minny....look to play on at Purdue the next week....etc.....etc........
I think spring games matter most on guys coming back from injury. I listen to more talk about certain guys dominating practice. Stanford coach mentioned a DL Solomon saying he would be a breakout national defensive player this year. When a coach says those sort of things I take notice.
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I think spring games matter most on guys coming back from injury. I listen to more talk about certain guys dominating practice. Stanford coach mentioned a DL Solomon saying he would be a breakout national defensive player this year. When a coach says those sort of things I take notice.
I think spring games matter most on guys coming back from injury. I listen to more talk about certain guys dominating practice. Stanford coach mentioned a DL Solomon saying he would be a breakout national defensive player this year. When a coach says those sort of things I take notice.
are you a HANDICAPPER?.....or a simple fan *you've mentioned more than once...you're a FAN of so and so....most guys here are simply fans....nothing wrong with that
UNBIASED INFO....is what you should be interested in *or maybe if you know the 'media strategies' of the coach.....here if Shaw NEVER compliments his players....well maybe you got something....or if Saban (always negative) says....."hey I think we're gonna be pretty good".....watch out
Spring stuff is TIGHTLY controlled.... *a few are open / honest.....most release only what they WANT YOU TO KNOW....if you can watch practice yourself and check out individual players....well sure
eg You think TEXAS is gonna let you know ANYTHING negative about their Offense?....if they can help it You think their O is gonna be highlighted in their spring game?.....sure You think Charlie is gonna limit the D to what they can do.....to make the O look good?.....you bet *didn't watch it > using Horns as an example as to how it works...when you see one unit dominating another....it is likely staged to be that way.....with a few exceptions sure
THEREFORE: a SERIOUS handicapper should ignore most of what he hears ....from those with ties to the team....including local reporters...a HC saying his guy is gonna be awesome.......?............ *later .....injury reports from local beat guys with access to practice.....are huge
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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Quote Originally Posted by VEGASJASON:
I think spring games matter most on guys coming back from injury. I listen to more talk about certain guys dominating practice. Stanford coach mentioned a DL Solomon saying he would be a breakout national defensive player this year. When a coach says those sort of things I take notice.
are you a HANDICAPPER?.....or a simple fan *you've mentioned more than once...you're a FAN of so and so....most guys here are simply fans....nothing wrong with that
UNBIASED INFO....is what you should be interested in *or maybe if you know the 'media strategies' of the coach.....here if Shaw NEVER compliments his players....well maybe you got something....or if Saban (always negative) says....."hey I think we're gonna be pretty good".....watch out
Spring stuff is TIGHTLY controlled.... *a few are open / honest.....most release only what they WANT YOU TO KNOW....if you can watch practice yourself and check out individual players....well sure
eg You think TEXAS is gonna let you know ANYTHING negative about their Offense?....if they can help it You think their O is gonna be highlighted in their spring game?.....sure You think Charlie is gonna limit the D to what they can do.....to make the O look good?.....you bet *didn't watch it > using Horns as an example as to how it works...when you see one unit dominating another....it is likely staged to be that way.....with a few exceptions sure
THEREFORE: a SERIOUS handicapper should ignore most of what he hears ....from those with ties to the team....including local reporters...a HC saying his guy is gonna be awesome.......?............ *later .....injury reports from local beat guys with access to practice.....are huge
Bookie I'm confused your point? I mention who I am a fan of as a measure of disclosure. Often you have people on here who are fans that message on this board with nonsense without disclosing that. I mention I'm a Texas fan, for instance though I have made a tireless case for taking OU over Houston, and I have made a strong case for taking ND over Texas. I think it is note worthy when a coach goes out of his way to talk up certain players in glowing terms. If they make a generic comment like I think our young offensive line is coming along and will be ready in week 1 (Then who the heck cares). If they say we are shattering weight room records and things like that you have to measure credibility for yourself. If they say so and so is playing like a man among boys or is unblock able in practice (I put stock in that)
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Bookie I'm confused your point? I mention who I am a fan of as a measure of disclosure. Often you have people on here who are fans that message on this board with nonsense without disclosing that. I mention I'm a Texas fan, for instance though I have made a tireless case for taking OU over Houston, and I have made a strong case for taking ND over Texas. I think it is note worthy when a coach goes out of his way to talk up certain players in glowing terms. If they make a generic comment like I think our young offensive line is coming along and will be ready in week 1 (Then who the heck cares). If they say we are shattering weight room records and things like that you have to measure credibility for yourself. If they say so and so is playing like a man among boys or is unblock able in practice (I put stock in that)
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