Public Indicator Calculations 2024

@HooAlum

 Friday Morning.  Not a lot of change. Some slight pullback but the favorites are still the calls across the board

Colorado (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Minnesota (6 units) - line movement, steam, low handle favorite, and sharp signal

Ole Miss (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and style points outweigh line movement

Georgia (2 units) -  lopsided wagering and low ticket and handle favorite and style points outweighs line movement and over/under squeeze

@HooAlum

Friday Night Update 

Clemson (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp signal and SKS

CHANGE: Vanderbilt-Tennessee (NO Bet) - low handle favorite balanced by sharp signal

Ohio State (3 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp signal and and style points outweighs over under squeeze

Baylor (3 units) - lopsided wagering, sharp signal and high handle on road favorite

Louisville (2 units) - line movement and sharp signal outweighs high handle on road favorite

North Carolina (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and lopsided wagering outweighs line movement 

Miami (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Arizona (2 units) -  road favorite with high handle and sharp signal

Cal (2 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

Arkansas-Missouri (No Bet) - low handle favorite and SKS balanced

Alabama (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement

Southern Cal (2 units)- road favorite with high handle and sharp signal

CHANGE: LSU (3 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal

Texas A&M (3 units) - sharp signal and high handle on road favorite

Saturday Morning (lot of new games but only one big play)

Saturday Morning (lot of new games but only one big play)

@HooAlum

Solid week where the big games hit.  Sort of opposite the results of the season but will take weekly wins where they can be found.

WEEKLY RECORD: 12-11

SEASON RECORD: 124-80 (60.78%)

WEEKLY REVENUE: 73.2 units won on 62 wagered

SEASON REVENUE: 868.4 units won on 787 wagered (10.34% profit)

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Indicator Performance

SKS: 66.67%

Sharp Signal: 66.01%

Over/Under Squeeze: 58.97%

Steam: 58.62%

Reverse Movement: 57.89%

Low Bet Favorite: 55.21%

Line Movement: 53.70%

Style Points: 50%

Early West Coast Start: 50%

Bye Week Return 49.09%

Low Handle Favorite: 48.98%

Lopsided Wagering: 48.04%

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Early Game Report

Western Kentucky-Jacksonville State (No Bet) - No indicators

Tulane (3 units) - SKS outweighs high handle favorite

UNLV (2 units) - sharp signal

Iowa St-Arizona St (No bet) - no indicators

Ohio (No bet) - no indicators

Texas (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Marshall-Louisiana-Lafayette (No Bet) - no indicators

Clemson-SMU (No bet) - no indicators

Penn State (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

 Tonight.  Literally no changes, though I am watching to see if the handle count does fall below 50% in UNLV-Boise which would be only a 1 unit play on UNLV.  I'll Give an update for tomorrow later.

Western Kentucky-Jacksonville State (No Bet) - No indicators

Tulane (3 units) - SKS outweighs high handle favorite

UNLV (2 units) - sharp signal

@HooAlum

 While UNLV pulled back due to low handle appearing it still was a 1 unit loss so 4 units wagered and 4 units into the ether.  not a positive start but only one game is junking out as the Big XII will likely determine the weekend as most of the others are cat and dogs.

Iowa St (5 units) - reverse movement and sharp signal

Miami(OH) (1 unit) - sharp signal

Georgia (1 unit) - sharp signal

Louisiana-Lafayette (2 units) - sharp signal

Clemson (2 units) - sharp signal

Penn State (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

 Well, after a run of great weeks definitely a disappointing end to the regular season (though maybe Army-Navy will turn up good).  There were some late adds that most saw but they were mainly negative.  Iowa State exploded as a 12 unit play (and then promptly exploded in the indicator's face).  You could see this as it jumped the fence so that is no surprise.  Penn State also had some late sharp movement that made that loss worse.  On the other hand Clemson got a nice play on the sharps late and Ohio-Miami went off teh board due to late sharp on the bobcats.  Here is how the season stand (lost the 10% profit level)

WEEKLY RECORD: 2-6

SEASON RECORD: 126-86 (59.43%)

WEEKLY REVENUE: 7.6 units on 25 wagered (ugh!)

SEASON REVENUE: 876 units won on 812 wagered (7.88% profit)

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Indicator Performance

Sharp Signal: 65.04%

SKS: 61.22%

Over/Under Squeeze: 58.97%

Steam: 56.67%

Reverse Movement: 56.41%

Low Ticket Favorite: 54.64%

Line Movement: 53.7%

Style Points: 50% (50.77% 5 year weighted average)

Early West Coast Road Start: 50% (65.44% 5 year weighted average)

Bye Week Return: 49.09% (52.09% 5 year weighted average)

Low Handle Favorite: 48.51% (53.08% 5 year weighted average)

Lopsided Wagering: 47.57% (53.33% 5 year weighted average)

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Army-Navy early projection: Navy (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Weekend Bowl

Western Michigan (3 units) - lopsided wagering with negative line movement

Sup Hoo .. love the posts way to stick w it and report to us ..

just wondering in all your experience tracking these do you find a certain profile of game where the indicators just seem to work better / worse?..  I'd kindof expect we'd find some value if we controlled for the magnitude and attention for a game like the BIIIG in season showdowns certainly conf champ games and also the relative uncertainty of some portions of the season week 1 / early non-cons, and probably even the late season dead spots teams missed their champ game lobsided or dual low motivation spots if its not a big rivalry game or something, and probably the entire bowl season just fraught with uncertainty too .. Just wondering if you've played around seems like the indicators would be better maybe just on yer run of the mill mid season conf game .. I get surprised when I look into things like that my hypothesis is often not only wrong but its the total opposite! lol .. anyway good luck rest of the way buddy!