Hey, last week was a big winner here (10-5, .667)! Having no less than 7 winners in the top 9 (.778). Albeit, we can safely assume my sad overall record (82-87-2, .485) didn’t instill enough confidence for anyone to jump on those top nine. A tough season…..
I have supplied little value with my selections in 2023, and few replies to my periodic tech talk. Nonetheless, I will wrap up the latter with two subjects – both likely competing for top-rung on the forum boredom scale.
I will first capture the overall-season relative to category. That would be an analysis of the 726 games in my database (all non-neutral site FBS), with a handful (10) yet to play on Friday/Saturday. The away teams turned out to be king, but not so as you could make any money on them. Away Dogs had a slight edge in 2023 (.506, 226-221-7), while Away Favs had a more distinct showing (.536, 143-124-4). Alas, we all know that these kind of performance stats run to .500 in the long run.
Lastly, something with a bit more-teeth -- depending on your outlook. A revisit of SpreadMargin (SM); a quantitative measure of how efficiently the line is being set. SM being how much a team covers, or fails to cover. I formerly shared that my 2013-22 database (6114 games) had a SM mean of 12.3 (Std Dev 9.6). Those 12.3 points represented the level of predictability the linemaker achieved over those nine years. But the more compelling question -- is s/he getting better?
Well, the SM mean for this season was 11.9 points (Std Dev 9.1). So, The Man has produced a line in 2023 stronger than in the recent past by 3.25% (1 - [11.9/12.3]), and his variation complements that. Should cappers be worried? Is AI insidiously closing in on sports wagering, making it the next slot machine to gobble up Blackjack table floorspace? And, what are the chances it will grow stronger by 3% next year? And the next? Yours to ponder……..
Hopefully, we are not that contented-frog being boiled in a slow-warming pot. As for me -- I’ll be back in 2024 with a retooled system. Ready to take the challenge; for at least one more season. I hope you (somewhat) enjoyed my presence here in 2023.
Good luck,
TheKingfish
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