Have not done one of these in a long time and today is as good as any. Trying to discipline myself and not bet on a lot of games especially after the first month of the season(1-3) picks maybe 4 a week, I'll see how it goes. First wager is on a GOY line Michigan St.(+13.5)@ tOSU on 10-5-19. I feel like this is good spot for Sparty. Buckeyes will be fresh off trip @ Nebraska. Not saying the Buckeyes will lose but if they possibly do I don't think the line will be +13.5 the following week. This seems like the type of game Dantonio will have his team up for seeing that OSU has handled them the last two times they have played. MSU is expected to have a strong defense this year as is OSU which I'll be relying on to cash this wager. I know MSU struggled on offense last year and have a new OC and will 5 games under there belt when these teams meet. OSU has a lot of new faces on offense as well and some time to work it out but MSU is more experienced team and I hope it shows when they play. I'm also going to put a little on the ML.
MSU+13.5_1.65(-110) to win 1.50 units
MSU+400_.35 units to win 1.40
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Have not done one of these in a long time and today is as good as any. Trying to discipline myself and not bet on a lot of games especially after the first month of the season(1-3) picks maybe 4 a week, I'll see how it goes. First wager is on a GOY line Michigan St.(+13.5)@ tOSU on 10-5-19. I feel like this is good spot for Sparty. Buckeyes will be fresh off trip @ Nebraska. Not saying the Buckeyes will lose but if they possibly do I don't think the line will be +13.5 the following week. This seems like the type of game Dantonio will have his team up for seeing that OSU has handled them the last two times they have played. MSU is expected to have a strong defense this year as is OSU which I'll be relying on to cash this wager. I know MSU struggled on offense last year and have a new OC and will 5 games under there belt when these teams meet. OSU has a lot of new faces on offense as well and some time to work it out but MSU is more experienced team and I hope it shows when they play. I'm also going to put a little on the ML.
It will be the battle of two former Michigan alumni as MSU(Wheatley) and BGSU(Loeffler) take over programs in their first year. Morgan St had a very poor offense last year and ranked in the bottom of FCS in offense. The defense on the other hand was the strength of the team and they retained the DC as well as most of the starters from last year. Bowling were terrible last year all around and have no were to go but up. They gave up an average of 40 points per game but seemed to settle down after the coach got fired last year on that side of the ball. Still no word on who the starter is going to be at QB for BG and some injuries and players missing reps in practice has this looking like the first one 20 wins the game. Morgan is also getting +21.5 which I considered but going to stick with total.
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Under 49.5(-110) Morgan St. @ Bowling Green
.75 units to win .6825
It will be the battle of two former Michigan alumni as MSU(Wheatley) and BGSU(Loeffler) take over programs in their first year. Morgan St had a very poor offense last year and ranked in the bottom of FCS in offense. The defense on the other hand was the strength of the team and they retained the DC as well as most of the starters from last year. Bowling were terrible last year all around and have no were to go but up. They gave up an average of 40 points per game but seemed to settle down after the coach got fired last year on that side of the ball. Still no word on who the starter is going to be at QB for BG and some injuries and players missing reps in practice has this looking like the first one 20 wins the game. Morgan is also getting +21.5 which I considered but going to stick with total.
Like the Mich St bet. They matchup very well to the Buckeyes.
Ohio State's D should be vastly improved under Mattison and Sparty's is always good.
When looking at Sparty's offensive coaches "switch-a-roo" I see this;
Salem as OC is a step back. Imagine he will receive a lot of help, expect Dantonio to be right there calling plays or assisting.
Bollman moved from co-OC to offensive line coach a big step forward for the O-line. This is what requires the most attention, the O-line. Two starters were under 300 lbs end of season LY but all have since gained weight, as instructed.
All five offensive assistants had their contracts reduced from rolling two-year contracts to rolling one year contracts.
Sparty just needs to end their 4th quarter meltdowns!
GL
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Like the Mich St bet. They matchup very well to the Buckeyes.
Ohio State's D should be vastly improved under Mattison and Sparty's is always good.
When looking at Sparty's offensive coaches "switch-a-roo" I see this;
Salem as OC is a step back. Imagine he will receive a lot of help, expect Dantonio to be right there calling plays or assisting.
Bollman moved from co-OC to offensive line coach a big step forward for the O-line. This is what requires the most attention, the O-line. Two starters were under 300 lbs end of season LY but all have since gained weight, as instructed.
All five offensive assistants had their contracts reduced from rolling two-year contracts to rolling one year contracts.
Sparty just needs to end their 4th quarter meltdowns!
Sam Houston St.(+10) @ New Mexico_1.1 units to win 1.0
SHSU(ML+285)_ .40 to win 1.14
James Madison(+7) @ West Virginia_1.15 units to win 1.0465
JMU(ML+2.35)_.35 to win .8225
I'm gonna play a lot of the FCS vs FBS matchups in the early weeks I usually do good in those matchups. Also you may start seeing a common theme here +points and underdogs. I don't like laying points especially anything over -3 unless it's a matchup I really like.
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Sam Houston St.(+10) @ New Mexico_1.1 units to win 1.0
SHSU(ML+285)_ .40 to win 1.14
James Madison(+7) @ West Virginia_1.15 units to win 1.0465
JMU(ML+2.35)_.35 to win .8225
I'm gonna play a lot of the FCS vs FBS matchups in the early weeks I usually do good in those matchups. Also you may start seeing a common theme here +points and underdogs. I don't like laying points especially anything over -3 unless it's a matchup I really like.
Illinois St.(+5.5) @ Northern Illinois_ 1.05 to win .9545
ISU ML(+200)_.45 to win .90
This line actually moved to +4 but at some places have not adjusted yet, not that big of difference still more than a FG and less than a TD unless you get some odd scoring going on missed XP or safety 1.5 pts. shouldn't come into play.
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Illinois St.(+5.5) @ Northern Illinois_ 1.05 to win .9545
ISU ML(+200)_.45 to win .90
This line actually moved to +4 but at some places have not adjusted yet, not that big of difference still more than a FG and less than a TD unless you get some odd scoring going on missed XP or safety 1.5 pts. shouldn't come into play.
Couple breaks here and there I would've had a positive weekend, rain before rainbow I guess.
Marshall(+12) @ Boise St._1(-110) unit to win .91
Like the Herd here to cover Boise coming off a comeback win vs FSU in little bit of hectic week for them after having to sites for the game. Both sides are pretty solid on the defensive side of the ball Marshall has the more experienced QB and a very good O-line things you need to compete vs teams on the road. I think this is more of one score game than a DD game taking the points for now.
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Week 1 (2-4-1) -.5665 units
Couple breaks here and there I would've had a positive weekend, rain before rainbow I guess.
Marshall(+12) @ Boise St._1(-110) unit to win .91
Like the Herd here to cover Boise coming off a comeback win vs FSU in little bit of hectic week for them after having to sites for the game. Both sides are pretty solid on the defensive side of the ball Marshall has the more experienced QB and a very good O-line things you need to compete vs teams on the road. I think this is more of one score game than a DD game taking the points for now.
Sharps are on Maryland banged them from +3 to -2. Yes they scored 79 against Howard but HU did not look interested in that game and the talent gap was HUUUGE. Liked Cuse when they were a favorite and even more now that they are a dog. Clemson next on deck for the Orange but I think coach Babers will have them focused for this game.
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Syracuse(+116) @ Maryland_1 unit to win 1.16
Sharps are on Maryland banged them from +3 to -2. Yes they scored 79 against Howard but HU did not look interested in that game and the talent gap was HUUUGE. Liked Cuse when they were a favorite and even more now that they are a dog. Clemson next on deck for the Orange but I think coach Babers will have them focused for this game.
The final four IN FBS....... Clemson. Alabama, Georgia and the Ohio State Michigan winner... Other hopefuls, Oklahoma, Washington, L.S.U.. WHAT DO YOU THINK ?
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The final four IN FBS....... Clemson. Alabama, Georgia and the Ohio State Michigan winner... Other hopefuls, Oklahoma, Washington, L.S.U.. WHAT DO YOU THINK ?
The final four IN FBS....... Clemson. Alabama, Georgia and the Ohio State Michigan winner... Other hopefuls, Oklahoma, Washington, L.S.U.. WHAT DO YOU THINK ?
To early to tell but I don't think we will get Clemson v Bama for the umpteenth time again. tOSU and Washington have a lot of moving parts on offense but will be most likely clicking by the end of the season. Michigan and UGa are two teams I can see get far.
Nightshft pick
Stony Brook(+33) @ Utah St.
SBU has the ability to hold Utah St. under 33 but there offense is a different story. Line started at -23.5 went to -33 huge oppurtunity for someone to middle, hopefully and catch the back half of it.
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Quote Originally Posted by TOPGUN23300:
The final four IN FBS....... Clemson. Alabama, Georgia and the Ohio State Michigan winner... Other hopefuls, Oklahoma, Washington, L.S.U.. WHAT DO YOU THINK ?
To early to tell but I don't think we will get Clemson v Bama for the umpteenth time again. tOSU and Washington have a lot of moving parts on offense but will be most likely clicking by the end of the season. Michigan and UGa are two teams I can see get far.
Nightshft pick
Stony Brook(+33) @ Utah St.
SBU has the ability to hold Utah St. under 33 but there offense is a different story. Line started at -23.5 went to -33 huge oppurtunity for someone to middle, hopefully and catch the back half of it.
Probably going to be a high scoring game both defenses nothing to write home about but I like the Beavs ability to run the ball and possibly control the pace of the game. Hopefully can get something at the end of the day after picking two teams that gave up 60+ pts.
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Oregon St.(+7) @ Hawaii_.75U to win .6825
ML(+195) .25 to win .4875
Probably going to be a high scoring game both defenses nothing to write home about but I like the Beavs ability to run the ball and possibly control the pace of the game. Hopefully can get something at the end of the day after picking two teams that gave up 60+ pts.
Week 2 (3-3) .5425 units Total (5-7-1) -.0240 units
Washington St. @Houston(+7)_1(-110)unit to win .91
Finally get to take a home dog.Both these teams are seem like they are similar but have a few differences. Both teams like to spread other teams out but Wazzu is a little pass happy or dare I say one dimensional with a low rated rushing attack where as UH averages 238 per game and ran for 241 vs Oklahoma. WSU does have the better defense as UH is near the bottom in total defense, and this goes against everything I believe in as far as capping a game. This will be WSU first real comp this year, and UH had that game @ Ok. WSU pass happy attack will hurt them in games like this, as it's easier to defend an one dimensional team than one who hurt you both ways.
Citadel(+37.5) @ Georgia Tech_.90(-110)unit to win .819
Didn't we just see what an option team can do when they get that type of offense moving and chewing clock? Don't want jinx myself again but let's just say I'm going to take an "prove it" approach with GT.
Weber(+10) @ Nevada_.85(-110)unit to win .7735
Weber got shutout by San Diego St but only gave up 6. Nevada just got pounded by Oregon and has one of the worst defenses in this young season. I believe these two lie somewhere in the middle. Weber will put some points on the board and Nevada wont make the mistakes SDSU made and get the fair share of offense also. The only problem I see is most FCS schools don't really take these games serious and just play to come out unharmed as there OOC portion of the schedule comes to an end. If not for an Purdue collapse the Wolfpack would be looking like a totally different team. I think coming so close to a FBS scalp will motivate Weber.
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Week 2 (3-3) .5425 units Total (5-7-1) -.0240 units
Washington St. @Houston(+7)_1(-110)unit to win .91
Finally get to take a home dog.Both these teams are seem like they are similar but have a few differences. Both teams like to spread other teams out but Wazzu is a little pass happy or dare I say one dimensional with a low rated rushing attack where as UH averages 238 per game and ran for 241 vs Oklahoma. WSU does have the better defense as UH is near the bottom in total defense, and this goes against everything I believe in as far as capping a game. This will be WSU first real comp this year, and UH had that game @ Ok. WSU pass happy attack will hurt them in games like this, as it's easier to defend an one dimensional team than one who hurt you both ways.
Citadel(+37.5) @ Georgia Tech_.90(-110)unit to win .819
Didn't we just see what an option team can do when they get that type of offense moving and chewing clock? Don't want jinx myself again but let's just say I'm going to take an "prove it" approach with GT.
Weber(+10) @ Nevada_.85(-110)unit to win .7735
Weber got shutout by San Diego St but only gave up 6. Nevada just got pounded by Oregon and has one of the worst defenses in this young season. I believe these two lie somewhere in the middle. Weber will put some points on the board and Nevada wont make the mistakes SDSU made and get the fair share of offense also. The only problem I see is most FCS schools don't really take these games serious and just play to come out unharmed as there OOC portion of the schedule comes to an end. If not for an Purdue collapse the Wolfpack would be looking like a totally different team. I think coming so close to a FBS scalp will motivate Weber.
This is line that has moved from +2 to -1 for TCU. I would have bet them earlier if ML was available as I had this game pegged weeks in advance. Once again we have a team who cant run(Purdue) but this match-up has them going against a team and coach that is known to get his team ready on the defensive side of the ball. Vandy ran for a wopping 38 yards but yet won 42-24 against Vandy. TCU's defense has been good against the run the past 2 years and have been known as a good unit overall under coach Patterson. Purdue's defense is ranked 108 so TCU should be able to move the ball against the Boilers. HC Patterson is 30-16 off a bye. My only concern is TCU has some new faces on defense and only one game under there belt vs. an inferior opponent. TCU may also rotate QB's which I'm not a fan of but I believe they will grind out victory here.
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TCU(+2) @ Purdue_1(-110) unit to win 91
This is line that has moved from +2 to -1 for TCU. I would have bet them earlier if ML was available as I had this game pegged weeks in advance. Once again we have a team who cant run(Purdue) but this match-up has them going against a team and coach that is known to get his team ready on the defensive side of the ball. Vandy ran for a wopping 38 yards but yet won 42-24 against Vandy. TCU's defense has been good against the run the past 2 years and have been known as a good unit overall under coach Patterson. Purdue's defense is ranked 108 so TCU should be able to move the ball against the Boilers. HC Patterson is 30-16 off a bye. My only concern is TCU has some new faces on defense and only one game under there belt vs. an inferior opponent. TCU may also rotate QB's which I'm not a fan of but I believe they will grind out victory here.
These to have not met since 1974 when some hippies, now a days known as SJW's, threw things at cadets in their disgust of the Vietnam War. When looking at AFA look undersized especially on defense. When looking at there game vs Colgate they looked smaller against Colgate but where much quicker especially at LB position. Colorado DC has faced AFA before when he was at CSU, but him knowing how to defend the option and players actually executing it are two different things, especially coming off an roller coaster game vs. Nebraska. Colorado's D is ranked 118 in total d' with a week to prepare for the Falcons, while AF has two weeks to prepare for the "real" start of their season. HC Calhoun is 2-8 off bye weeks but I believe AF stays close or ahead and nips the Buffs in the end.
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Air Force(+4) @ Colorado_.80 unit to win .7280
AFA ML(+143)_.40 to win .5720
These to have not met since 1974 when some hippies, now a days known as SJW's, threw things at cadets in their disgust of the Vietnam War. When looking at AFA look undersized especially on defense. When looking at there game vs Colgate they looked smaller against Colgate but where much quicker especially at LB position. Colorado DC has faced AFA before when he was at CSU, but him knowing how to defend the option and players actually executing it are two different things, especially coming off an roller coaster game vs. Nebraska. Colorado's D is ranked 118 in total d' with a week to prepare for the Falcons, while AF has two weeks to prepare for the "real" start of their season. HC Calhoun is 2-8 off bye weeks but I believe AF stays close or ahead and nips the Buffs in the end.
Week 3 (5-0-1) 3.8250 units Total(10-7-2) 3.7785 units
Would of had a huge weekend if I played The Citadel ML, but focused more on trying to middle, ended up just sticking with spread. Also lucked up on UH spread so it evens out kinda.
Bowling Green(+9.5) @ Kent St._.90(-110)units to win .8190
This is more of a fade on Kent than a play on BGSU, here is some of Kent's rankings, Rush Off 103, tackles for loss allowed 123, total O 125, rush D last, and total D 125. So a team with those rankings is just under 10 point fave . When Kent played Kennesaw St. that line started at a PK and went to 4.5, I think BGSU is better than Kennesaw. Even though the record does not show BGSU is much improved from last year and needs to win games like this to show it. Might add ML but spread for now.
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Week 3 (5-0-1) 3.8250 units Total(10-7-2) 3.7785 units
Would of had a huge weekend if I played The Citadel ML, but focused more on trying to middle, ended up just sticking with spread. Also lucked up on UH spread so it evens out kinda.
Bowling Green(+9.5) @ Kent St._.90(-110)units to win .8190
This is more of a fade on Kent than a play on BGSU, here is some of Kent's rankings, Rush Off 103, tackles for loss allowed 123, total O 125, rush D last, and total D 125. So a team with those rankings is just under 10 point fave . When Kent played Kennesaw St. that line started at a PK and went to 4.5, I think BGSU is better than Kennesaw. Even though the record does not show BGSU is much improved from last year and needs to win games like this to show it. Might add ML but spread for now.
These two teams are very similar statistical wise but CSU has played a tougher schedule playing two P5's and were tied with Arky going into the 4th. I'll take the homedog in that elevation.
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Toledo @ Colorado St.(+9)_.90 to win .8190 units
These two teams are very similar statistical wise but CSU has played a tougher schedule playing two P5's and were tied with Arky going into the 4th. I'll take the homedog in that elevation.
Michigan(+3.5) @ Wisconsin_1.1(-110) to win 1.001 unit
Very tricky game with lots of line movement, UM-6.5(GOY), UM-1.5, and now+3.5 up from +2.5 opening. All this because Army took them to OT, did we forget they did the same to Oklahoma last year and they made it to the Final 4. Wisconsin has looked dominating in 2 wins but they are vs. less than stellar competition. Wisky always has a big O'line and depth at RB, but QB play is what keeps them from reaching that upper echelon. Jack Coan is putting up great numbers but I still have that memory of his game vs PSU were he struggled to make plays the entire game it may have been his 1st game so I'm not going to hold it against him too much. Was reading how UM DC said was glad to be able to get back to playing regular D after playing Army. He has a history of doing well against Bucky, a little over 14 pts p/g in 3 games since '16. UM offense has to hold on to the ball they have literally been turning over the ball since the beginning of the season. I expect a classic B10 type of matchup low scoring grind out football, so I'll take the points. Also a lot of trends point toward Badgers, UM's record as an underdog and they haven't won at Camp Randall in like 20 years but trends are meant to be broken.
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Michigan(+3.5) @ Wisconsin_1.1(-110) to win 1.001 unit
Very tricky game with lots of line movement, UM-6.5(GOY), UM-1.5, and now+3.5 up from +2.5 opening. All this because Army took them to OT, did we forget they did the same to Oklahoma last year and they made it to the Final 4. Wisconsin has looked dominating in 2 wins but they are vs. less than stellar competition. Wisky always has a big O'line and depth at RB, but QB play is what keeps them from reaching that upper echelon. Jack Coan is putting up great numbers but I still have that memory of his game vs PSU were he struggled to make plays the entire game it may have been his 1st game so I'm not going to hold it against him too much. Was reading how UM DC said was glad to be able to get back to playing regular D after playing Army. He has a history of doing well against Bucky, a little over 14 pts p/g in 3 games since '16. UM offense has to hold on to the ball they have literally been turning over the ball since the beginning of the season. I expect a classic B10 type of matchup low scoring grind out football, so I'll take the points. Also a lot of trends point toward Badgers, UM's record as an underdog and they haven't won at Camp Randall in like 20 years but trends are meant to be broken.
Colorado St has a backup QB playing today Patrick O'Brien who is transfer out of Nebraska. Watched some Youtube film of him in HS and against Minny, he is very consistent in his delivery and seems comfortable throwing from the pocket. Might actually be better than the starter. They also have a transfer from Auburn at WR Nate Craig-Myers who was highly rated at his position in HS making his 1st start. Taking a chance on some players hoping they gel together but Toledo also will have deal with players with limited film on them.
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Michigan ML(+138) @ Wisconsin_.40 to win .552
Toledo @ Colorado St.ML(+260)_.30 to win .78
Colorado St has a backup QB playing today Patrick O'Brien who is transfer out of Nebraska. Watched some Youtube film of him in HS and against Minny, he is very consistent in his delivery and seems comfortable throwing from the pocket. Might actually be better than the starter. They also have a transfer from Auburn at WR Nate Craig-Myers who was highly rated at his position in HS making his 1st start. Taking a chance on some players hoping they gel together but Toledo also will have deal with players with limited film on them.
Think there is good value on Irish, lot of people look at past efforts vs top tier competition and think this is gonig to be the same. Need N.D. to salvage a rough day.
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Notre Dame(+15.5) @ Georgia_.90 to win .819
Think there is good value on Irish, lot of people look at past efforts vs top tier competition and think this is gonig to be the same. Need N.D. to salvage a rough day.
Don't know if this is available at most books and forgot about till just now. Over is is possible play whenever the total comes out, as both teams are terrible at defense but I believe TexSt. is just a little better.
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Nicholls St @ Texas St.(+3.5)_1 unit to win .91
Don't know if this is available at most books and forgot about till just now. Over is is possible play whenever the total comes out, as both teams are terrible at defense but I believe TexSt. is just a little better.
I know all the reasons not to bet the Bows, not good on the mainland, climate, elevation, and have not played well in Reno. Hawaii should have a boost with some players coming back on defense and I believe the Bows are better.
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Hawaii ML(+106) @ Nevada_.85 unit to win .911
I know all the reasons not to bet the Bows, not good on the mainland, climate, elevation, and have not played well in Reno. Hawaii should have a boost with some players coming back on defense and I believe the Bows are better.
Usually bad month for me coming up(October) dogs don't bark as much and I start giving back some of my winnings. Already off to bad start with MSU now getting +20 when I'm locked in at GOY line +13.5 for a larger bet than usual, oh well lets see how it plays out.
UCF @ Cincinnati(+4)_1 unit to win .91, ML(+150)_.4 to win .6
Got to watch a good portion of the UCF v Pitt game and UCF looks like a team that takes a while to adjust if you can get the early jump on them. Cincy looked bad in their game against the Buckeyes, but nobody has looked good against them. They had some injuries also when they played that game and seem to be back in the groove of things. UCF is not like teams of the past years. If the Knights struggled with Pitt I think those sames issues show up in this game, just more problematic.
Oklahoma @ Kansas under 67_.8 to win .728
Boomer has Red River Rivalry on deck so I think they will just worry about doing enough to get the win and get out unharmed. Surprisingly both teams are ranked in the 100's in plays per game. I think in Okie's case it's due to their quick strike ability.
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Week 5(5-4) +1.53 units
Total (17-14-2)+5.193 units
Usually bad month for me coming up(October) dogs don't bark as much and I start giving back some of my winnings. Already off to bad start with MSU now getting +20 when I'm locked in at GOY line +13.5 for a larger bet than usual, oh well lets see how it plays out.
UCF @ Cincinnati(+4)_1 unit to win .91, ML(+150)_.4 to win .6
Got to watch a good portion of the UCF v Pitt game and UCF looks like a team that takes a while to adjust if you can get the early jump on them. Cincy looked bad in their game against the Buckeyes, but nobody has looked good against them. They had some injuries also when they played that game and seem to be back in the groove of things. UCF is not like teams of the past years. If the Knights struggled with Pitt I think those sames issues show up in this game, just more problematic.
Oklahoma @ Kansas under 67_.8 to win .728
Boomer has Red River Rivalry on deck so I think they will just worry about doing enough to get the win and get out unharmed. Surprisingly both teams are ranked in the 100's in plays per game. I think in Okie's case it's due to their quick strike ability.
Home team usually wins this matchup, should be a close game. Navy is much improved from last year and gave Memphis a good run until falling apart late. Game is a sellout so it should a very live atmosphere. Most ratings I've looked at have Navy as a slight favorite, but bettors are mostly siding with AFA. Both these teams are similar in style and statistically so I'll take the home-dog in a possible coin flip game that they will need to stay over .500 and move closer to becoming bowl eligible following last years debacle of a season.
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Air Force @ Navy ML(+133)_1 unit
Home team usually wins this matchup, should be a close game. Navy is much improved from last year and gave Memphis a good run until falling apart late. Game is a sellout so it should a very live atmosphere. Most ratings I've looked at have Navy as a slight favorite, but bettors are mostly siding with AFA. Both these teams are similar in style and statistically so I'll take the home-dog in a possible coin flip game that they will need to stay over .500 and move closer to becoming bowl eligible following last years debacle of a season.
I see this being the first of two match-ups between these two as they are in the drivers seat to meet each other in the SBC championship game. I'll take the the home team as they have the better defense and running game also a chip on there shoulder after being swept last year by this team.
Virginia @ Miami(PK)_1 unit to win .91
This game could get ugly as both teas are 13th and 15th place in ypg defensively. Miami coming off an embarrassing loss vs VT should be a desperate team going into this game as one more loss pretty much will cancel any dreams of winning the Coastal division. Coach Mendenhall is 19-11 off a bye but I think Miami is at fork in the road moment in there season and should be more focused and have a sense of urgency to win this game.
Ole Miss(+12.5) @ Missouri_1 to win .91
Ole Miss QB Plumlee has added some life into the Rebs season and the team is coming off a 413 yards rushing performance vs Vandy. Missouri QB Braynt was dinged up last game but will play in this game. I don't expect OM to duplicate what they did against Vandy, but Missouri struggled against a mobile QB when they played Wyoming the 1st week.
Nebraska(+7.5) @ Minnesota_.90 to win .792
Minnesota is probably the least impressive undefeated team in the country.They lean on there defense to win them games and it has worked out fine for them so far. Nebraska has unimpressed all season and barely snuck by N'western last game out. Similar to Miami the Huskers can still salvage the season with win here or continue spiral downward, I think Minny is team they can bounce back on and change there season.
Arkansas(+7) @ Kentucky_1 unit to win .91, Arkansas ML(+200)_.4 to win .8
UK comes in with a banged up QB an have lost 3 in a row. Hogs have lost 2 in a row but looked better with Hicks at QB vs A&M in almost pulling off an upset. That was a contrast to what Starkel did at QB as he threw 5 picks the game before vs SJSU also in a loss. Not many winnable games after this for Arkansas with Auburn, Bama, LSU and Mizzou left on there schedule, I look for Arkansas to pull off a slight upset after nearly pulling one off.
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Week 6(4-2) +1.568 units
Total(21-16-2) +6.761 units
Appalachian St @ Louisiana(-2)_.90 to win .819
I see this being the first of two match-ups between these two as they are in the drivers seat to meet each other in the SBC championship game. I'll take the the home team as they have the better defense and running game also a chip on there shoulder after being swept last year by this team.
Virginia @ Miami(PK)_1 unit to win .91
This game could get ugly as both teas are 13th and 15th place in ypg defensively. Miami coming off an embarrassing loss vs VT should be a desperate team going into this game as one more loss pretty much will cancel any dreams of winning the Coastal division. Coach Mendenhall is 19-11 off a bye but I think Miami is at fork in the road moment in there season and should be more focused and have a sense of urgency to win this game.
Ole Miss(+12.5) @ Missouri_1 to win .91
Ole Miss QB Plumlee has added some life into the Rebs season and the team is coming off a 413 yards rushing performance vs Vandy. Missouri QB Braynt was dinged up last game but will play in this game. I don't expect OM to duplicate what they did against Vandy, but Missouri struggled against a mobile QB when they played Wyoming the 1st week.
Nebraska(+7.5) @ Minnesota_.90 to win .792
Minnesota is probably the least impressive undefeated team in the country.They lean on there defense to win them games and it has worked out fine for them so far. Nebraska has unimpressed all season and barely snuck by N'western last game out. Similar to Miami the Huskers can still salvage the season with win here or continue spiral downward, I think Minny is team they can bounce back on and change there season.
Arkansas(+7) @ Kentucky_1 unit to win .91, Arkansas ML(+200)_.4 to win .8
UK comes in with a banged up QB an have lost 3 in a row. Hogs have lost 2 in a row but looked better with Hicks at QB vs A&M in almost pulling off an upset. That was a contrast to what Starkel did at QB as he threw 5 picks the game before vs SJSU also in a loss. Not many winnable games after this for Arkansas with Auburn, Bama, LSU and Mizzou left on there schedule, I look for Arkansas to pull off a slight upset after nearly pulling one off.
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. When Kent played Kennesaw St. that line started at a PK and went to 4.5, I think BGSU is better than Kennesaw. Even though the record does not show BGSU is much improved from last year and needs to win games like this to show it. Might add ML but spread for now.
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