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SEC Week 8

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Posted: #101
GL Younger on two of the large plays as well
 
Ark and LSU
 
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Posted: #102
There's nothing wrong with a little action on the ML, for Vanderbilt. If Georgia shoots themselves in the foot enough, maybe Vandy can pull it off....but I highly doubt that. Vandy should be happy that they are no longer the welcome mat for the SEC. no play, GLA
 
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Posted: #103
DY... what do you think about the MSU/Tenn game?
 
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Posted: #104
dyounger,
 
LSU is next for UGA. Be careful UGA fella.
 
I would not touch them this week. If I have to bet, it would be Vandy.
 
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Posted: #105
Dyounger,
 
We both have done pretty well this year on SEC games, most of them the on the same play.  Backing up from a game to game perspective, I think this is sort of a fav weekend on the board. 

With SEC lines I'm not as convinced fav's will prevail.  I am thinking that the dogs will go 3-2 ATS and 2-3 SU.  Based on that prediction who are the fav's most deserving of fading this week? LSU, Tenn, Bama, UGA, UK?  Of that group Tenn & UK stand out.  Must play Miss St and Arky spread and ML play.
 
After that I think the LSU line is low, so LSU becomes a fav play IMO.  Even though SC has a better chance of winning SU than Vandy and Ole Miss the odds dont make it worth the play. Neither does SC as a spread play, either play the ML or nothing.
 
That leaves Vandy and Ole Miss.  IMO either play both dogs ML or dont play either.  It would hurt too much to miss one and play the other.  As a spread play I would certainly have to lean towards Vandy.  Hard to fade Bama, but just to cover the unexpected and meet conf prediction results I might have to play Ole Miss spread and ML and Vandy ML. 
 
My ultra greedy SEC plays would be:
Arky spread and ML
Miss St spread and ML
Vandy spread play
Bama win ATS
LSU win ATS
 
I may just play every SEC dog ML and SU and hope for the 3-2 ATS dogs and dogs 2-3 ATS.
 
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Posted: #106
i like your reasoning behind your UGA pick..statistically enticing

GL this weekend
 
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Posted: #107
Bama covers this spread, Saban has two weeks to prepare for Ole Miss, that is a recipe for a beatdown.  Besides, your logic for betting Georgia seems to be an excellent reason to bet Bama.  An Ole Miss team that beat the mighty gators on the road isn't gonna be a trendy public pick.....CMON....Don't be a lemming......The masses are asses
 
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Posted: #108
 Good looking card Dyounger, I'm with you on all of your SEC plays except UGA of course. I just think all of the injuries are catching up to them and also think they might play a little conservative with a trip to Tiger Stadium coming up. Vandy is also a better team with Adams at qb, he's a game changer similar to Tim "I hate him so much" Tebow. Also wanted your thoughts on Mizzou/Texas. I think Chase Daniels and Maclin are gonna eat up the Longhorns secondary. Thinking about playing Mizzou (ML). And I still think LSU is a top 10 team. They have a bunch of talent on that team and you don't have to take my word for it, just watch the NFL draft next year and you'll see. I think the departure of Ryan Perrilloux really set them back a year or two in the national title race but they still have enought talent to compete in the other BCS bowl games. Just my opinion though.
 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by jp1lsu:

Dyounger,
 
We both have done pretty well this year on SEC games, most of them the on the same play.  Backing up from a game to game perspective, I think this is sort of a fav weekend on the board. 

With SEC lines I'm not as convinced fav's will prevail.  I am thinking that the dogs will go 3-2 ATS and 2-3 SU.  Based on that prediction who are the fav's most deserving of fading this week? LSU, Tenn, Bama, UGA, UK?  Of that group Tenn & UK stand out.  Must play Miss St and Arky spread and ML play.
 
After that I think the LSU line is low, so LSU becomes a fav play IMO.  Even though SC has a better chance of winning SU than Vandy and Ole Miss the odds dont make it worth the play. Neither does SC as a spread play, either play the ML or nothing.
 
That leaves Vandy and Ole Miss.  IMO either play both dogs ML or dont play either.  It would hurt too much to miss one and play the other.  As a spread play I would certainly have to lean towards Vandy.  Hard to fade Bama, but just to cover the unexpected and meet conf prediction results I might have to play Ole Miss spread and ML and Vandy ML. 
 
My ultra greedy SEC plays would be:
Arky spread and ML
Miss St spread and ML
Vandy spread play
Bama win ATS
LSU win ATS
 
I may just play every SEC dog ML and SU and hope for the 3-2 ATS dogs and dogs 2-3 ATS.

I totally agree that Arky & Miss St are the SEC dogs of the week, and both have a decent shot of pulling outright wins.  Getting more than 7 in these two games is

The only SEC favorite I can back this week is LSU.  This is an absolute MUST WIN for the Bayou Bengals.  I don't think Spurrier will make it easy for them however.

FREAK OUT!!!

 
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Posted: #110
HEY DY , remember UGA always warms up crappy if this were boxing UGA would trail on every card all 7 of Richts years.
02' - Clemson 31-30 and 13-9 So car then vroom.
06 07 slow starts great closers .....
 
 
that being said Uga -15 prob but with LSU next another 12 pointer possible.
 
LOve ARK too many points for def minded KENT
OLe Miss can score but cant defend bet over
so CAr rolling now that there out of it  M?LINE
tenn -7  big
 
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Posted: #111
Great read SEC guys...
 
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Posted: #112
I was playing poker with one of the top sports bettors in Vegas tonight. He loves Arkansas, but he is also on South Carolina and Miss St. Are you going to add a bet on Miss St?
 
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Posted: #113
Away Teams 35-16-0 68.63%
Home Teams 16-35-0 31.37%
Favorites 24-27-0 47.06%
Dogs 27-24-0 52.94%
Away Favorites 14-6-0 70.00%
Away Dogs 21-10-0 67.74%
Home Favorites 10-21-0 32.26%
Home Dogs 6-14-0 30.00%

I think theres something to this evening out

 
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Posted: #114
Gocougs- I am leaning towards Miss st., having trouble pulling the trigger on it.  Miss St off a upset win over 13th ranked Vandy and Tenn of a disappointing loss (and season) to UGA.  If the line gets below a TD i may get on Tenn.  Tenn's offense looked a little better without Crompton behind center.
 
tazzman- Glad we got the loss out of the way early, maybe we can start the run now..I think after this week im going to start fading UGA though, too many injuries to the O line to compete with top programs IMO.
 
AlexJR- LSU is good in the trenches (although they didnt do well in the trenches vs Florida) but they should dominate the good teams, but will be in trouble vs the great ones.  There QB is what will hold them back IMO.
 
Sagsmore- Ole miss had 2 weeks to prepare also, Ole miss is also coming off a loss to SC(not off a win to the Gators). My thoughts are that this is a high spread for a Bama team going against a SEC team.  Ole miss is good in the trenches.  I think they can do enough to keep it close.
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #115
AlexJR- I like Mizzou, but i dont think i will be playing it. 
 
JP1lsu- We have been on the same page for almost all of our games it seems like. I just have a gut feeling about this spread, It seems to obvious to take Vandy +15.  They knew when they made this line people would be pouring in on Vandy catching 15.  Vandys defense is pretty bad, they can get turnovers, but statistically they have given up alot.  There offense WILL NOT run the ball for 100+ yards in this game.  After this game i think people will wonder why Vandy was ever ranked in the top 25.  Like i said earlier in the year, Vandy is a good suprise team this year, they wont be contending for the SEC title, but also wont be bringing up the rear. UGA just too powerful for them IMO, Vandy has yet to play a top notch SEC team this year.
 
Arky  and LSU i like.  Dont like Bama laying this much points to a team that is better than Kentucky by far.  Also a team coming of a home loss who plays the same type of football Bama does.  Both of these teams just run run run and that makes for a close game.  14 points is too many IMO. Dont like the ML on Ole miss in this one because i think there is a 0 % chance they win it.
 
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Posted: #116
What do you think about the BYU game guys?
 
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Posted: #117
Dyoung - Dont you think Bama tries to play to the writers to make sure they stay #2.  Penn St is breathing down their neck.  Doesnt Bama after a week off try to run up the score on Ole Miss? Would take the total over 49.5 be a better bet?
 
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Posted: #118
Nice call on Florida last week man

I guess that is why I never bet on my own team, I have too much emotion into the game and let it cloud my judgment. I was sure they would not cover that number.

I really like Ark and Ole Miss this week. GL to you and your Dawgs. I am excited for the Cocktail Party and want both teams to go in with only 1 loss.
 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by bravarian:

What do you think about the BYU game guys?


Someone missed the title of the thread. 
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by sagsmore:

Bama covers this spread, Saban has two weeks to prepare for Ole Miss, that is a recipe for a beatdown.  

Nutt has had two weeks to prepare as well.  Also Bama seems to come out fired up for the big away games (beating Clemson by 24 and Georgia by 11) while simply “showing up” as a big home favorite (beating Tulane by 14 and Kentucky by 3).

 

I will gladly take the Rebels + 2 TDs

 
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Posted: #121
 
Like the Ole Miss play, differ on the Georgia play hard to turn down DD SEC dogs.
 
 
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Posted: #122
anyone liking the under on the Tenn & Miss St. game?
 
-doc
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by dyounger:

Jimmy- Your welcome to trash my thread as much as you like as long as your not bashing me
 
Ok on to UGA vs Vandy:
Couple of things that stand out to me.  For 1 considering how Vandy is ranked in the top 25 and was just ranked in the top 15 before last week i would have expected this line to be around 7-10 points.  I think the way they set the line was to encourage the money on Vandy because like you said Vandy has played them tight last 3 games and Vandy's team has been outstanding this year, top 25, blah blah all that. Now on to the meat and potatoes of this game.
 
Vandys primary offensive weapon is the run game.  They are basically nothing if they cant run the ball as you saw against Miss st last weekend.  UGA's rushing defense is there strength BY FAR. They only give up 2.2 yards per rush. Vandy will be better suited to pass the ball against UGA, but im not so sure they are set up to do that because they havent been able to pass the ball all year long. Vandy has played 6 games so fafr this year and out of those only 1 game have they passed for more than 100 yards. BTW that was for 150 yards against Auburn.  That 1 sided attack doesnt stand a chance against UGA.  UGA has been VERY good against the run all year and there is no way they can win or even stay close running the ball in this game.
 
UGA's offense is suprisingly doing very well passing the ball. They lead the SEC in passing offense and Vandy is among the bottom 3 in passing defense giving up over 6 yards per pass. Vandys total defense is among the worst in the SEC and will be exposed vs UGA this weekend. 
 
The way i think this game plays out is UGA comes out to an early lead which forces Vandy away from there game plan of running the football.  They are forced to pass the ball which isnt going to turn out well for them because there is a reason they have had only 1 game with over 100 yards passing.  I think UGA wins this game in a blow out, UGA needs some statement wins after the tough loss to Bama and this right here is where it will start.
 

You are spot on with your analysis of this game. UGA rolls by 30+!!! Good luck to you my friend

 
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Posted: #124
Beaver_Liquor- if thats how you feel take Bama.  Not going to try and talk you out, i feel good about Ole miss catching 14.  They havent come out yet this year against these types of team this year fired up, so im sticking with Ole Miss.
 
D Town- GL to you to
 
Straight shooter- very good points, everything you say is reasons why i take Ole miss.
 
Bustinpiles- i can see why people like DD dogs in the SEC, GL on your plays this week
 
doctorcarta- The total on Tenn/Miss st is really low. Both teams offenses are starting to take off, could be the week they score 3 tds?  No play for me, but i would lean over 36, and for the record my documented totals record speaks for itself
 
 
 
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Posted: #125
Adding:
Arkansas +260 ML
 
 
line is down to a TD now
 
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