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#1
Cincinnati vs. San Diego State (-3, 56.5) (8 pm ET, ESPN)
My power ratings make this Hawaii Bowl game a Pick'em, but the matchup greatly favors San Diego State. Cincinnati actually opened as a -2 point favorite and moved to a +3 point underdog as QB Gunner Kiel will miss this game due to personal reasons.
This is not a good matchup for the Bearcats. Cincinnati and San Diego State are complete opposites. The Bearcats have a potent offense and a terrible defense. Cincinnati likes to throw the ball a lot; they average 373 passing yards per game. The Bearcats’ defense gave up 37 points per game on 6.2 yards per play against the eight bowl teams they faced this season. Backup quarterback Hayden Moore has plenty of experience, but he had weaker numbers overall this season compared to QB Gunner Kiel.
San Diego State will also be without their starting quarterback as Maxwell Smith will miss this game due to a knee injury. However, San Diego State runs the ball essentially on every play; they averaged 48 rushing attempts per game while running for 235 yards, compared to just 18 passing attempts per game. Overall, the Aztecs averaged 31.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. San Diego State has the superior defense as they allowed just 17.2 points per game on 4.7 yards per play this season (versus opponents that averaged 24.8 ppg and 5.4 yppl).
The Aztecs run the ball on 73% of their total offensive plays and they should have plenty of success on the ground against a terrible Cincinnati rush defense that allowed 191 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry this season (versus opponents that averaged just 151 yards and 4.0 ypr overall).
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My power ratings make this Hawaii Bowl game a Pick'em, but the matchup greatly favors San Diego State. Cincinnati actually opened as a -2 point favorite and moved to a +3 point underdog as QB Gunner Kiel will miss this game due to personal reasons.
This is not a good matchup for the Bearcats. Cincinnati and San Diego State are complete opposites. The Bearcats have a potent offense and a terrible defense. Cincinnati likes to throw the ball a lot; they average 373 passing yards per game. The Bearcats’ defense gave up 37 points per game on 6.2 yards per play against the eight bowl teams they faced this season. Backup quarterback Hayden Moore has plenty of experience, but he had weaker numbers overall this season compared to QB Gunner Kiel.
San Diego State will also be without their starting quarterback as Maxwell Smith will miss this game due to a knee injury. However, San Diego State runs the ball essentially on every play; they averaged 48 rushing attempts per game while running for 235 yards, compared to just 18 passing attempts per game. Overall, the Aztecs averaged 31.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. San Diego State has the superior defense as they allowed just 17.2 points per game on 4.7 yards per play this season (versus opponents that averaged 24.8 ppg and 5.4 yppl).
The Aztecs run the ball on 73% of their total offensive plays and they should have plenty of success on the ground against a terrible Cincinnati rush defense that allowed 191 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry this season (versus opponents that averaged just 151 yards and 4.0 ypr overall).
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