This write-up was done by a friend who has put together similar analysis for most of the LSU games this season. Typically pretty good, although there may be a little LSU bias... Enjoy!
- LSU, New Orleans Superdome, January 9, 2012. Pre-game.
Welcome to a very special Championship Edition prediction, complete with pictures, videos, links, and a bunch of random thoughts I've had since the SEC Championship game. Enjoy....
It's Almost Here
The Game of the Century Part II. A Matchup of Epic Proportions.
In one corner, the Undefeated SEC Champion, holding victories over the Champions of the PAC-12 Conference, the Champions of the Big East Conference, and the Champions of the SEC Eastern Division.
In the other corner, the SEC West Runner-Up, holding victories over the Runner-Up in the Big 10 Leaders Division and the team tied for 4th place in the SEC. Also a win over the winner of the I-AA Southern Conference. Oh, and they apparently won the good-trier award in a home loss to the other team.
continued...
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This write-up was done by a friend who has put together similar analysis for most of the LSU games this season. Typically pretty good, although there may be a little LSU bias... Enjoy!
- LSU, New Orleans Superdome, January 9, 2012. Pre-game.
Welcome to a very special Championship Edition prediction, complete with pictures, videos, links, and a bunch of random thoughts I've had since the SEC Championship game. Enjoy....
It's Almost Here
The Game of the Century Part II. A Matchup of Epic Proportions.
In one corner, the Undefeated SEC Champion, holding victories over the Champions of the PAC-12 Conference, the Champions of the Big East Conference, and the Champions of the SEC Eastern Division.
In the other corner, the SEC West Runner-Up, holding victories over the Runner-Up in the Big 10 Leaders Division and the team tied for 4th place in the SEC. Also a win over the winner of the I-AA Southern Conference. Oh, and they apparently won the good-trier award in a home loss to the other team.
In case you haven't guessed by my little intro, the point is moot now, but I'm going to complain about it anyway - Alabama does not deserve to be playing in this game. No one has had an easier path to playing for a National Championship since BYU in the 1984 season. Alabama played 2 teams this year that finished in the Top 20. Both were at home. They went 1-1. Bama's best win came against a team that beat 6-6 Texas A&M by 4, 6-6 Vandy by 3, 2-10 Ole Miss by 5, and lost by 24 points twice. Alabama had one other game against a team with more than 7 wins, a win over a Penn State team that got blown out yesterday by the Conference USA Runner-up. Bama failed to win their division, much less the conference.
I don't think there's ever been a non-undefeated team playing for a National Championship with a less impressive 3-best wins than this year's Arkansas, Penn State, and Auburn, and certainly not one with such a crap resume that failed to win its conference.
This isn't to say that I think Alabama is a bad football team and doesn't have a chance to beat LSU; to the contrary, I think Alabama probably has a better chance of beating LSU than any other team in the country (after watching OSU and Stanford last night, LSU would have at least 2, maybe 3, 100-yard rushers against those defenses). But up until now, the point of the BCS has never been to figure out which team presents the most difficult match-up for the #1 team and then put that team #2. Teams with crap schedules usually have to win all of their games, especially their big home games.
Close Games Don't Have Co-Winners
No, the LSU loss doesn't get to go in the "good" column when looking at Alabama's season. Winning by three is more than three points better than losing by three. I've just been amazed how the November 5 game has been turned into some sort of meaningless exhibition, as if its fantasy football and 30 yards is worth the same amount of points as a field-goal. I could've sworn that the inability to win close games was considered a bad thing, not something basically on par with winning. I guess it turns out Dinardo actually did pretty well his last two years at LSU.
Alabama lost to LSU by the same amount that Oregon, Northwestern, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Western Kentucky, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Georgia did...by one football game.
Bling
Every 4-year player from all of LSU's signing classes since 1998 has an SEC Championship ring. With a win on January 9, every 4-year player from all of LSU's signing classes since 2000 will have a National Championship Ring to go along with it.
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Bama's "Body of Work" is Crap
In case you haven't guessed by my little intro, the point is moot now, but I'm going to complain about it anyway - Alabama does not deserve to be playing in this game. No one has had an easier path to playing for a National Championship since BYU in the 1984 season. Alabama played 2 teams this year that finished in the Top 20. Both were at home. They went 1-1. Bama's best win came against a team that beat 6-6 Texas A&M by 4, 6-6 Vandy by 3, 2-10 Ole Miss by 5, and lost by 24 points twice. Alabama had one other game against a team with more than 7 wins, a win over a Penn State team that got blown out yesterday by the Conference USA Runner-up. Bama failed to win their division, much less the conference.
I don't think there's ever been a non-undefeated team playing for a National Championship with a less impressive 3-best wins than this year's Arkansas, Penn State, and Auburn, and certainly not one with such a crap resume that failed to win its conference.
This isn't to say that I think Alabama is a bad football team and doesn't have a chance to beat LSU; to the contrary, I think Alabama probably has a better chance of beating LSU than any other team in the country (after watching OSU and Stanford last night, LSU would have at least 2, maybe 3, 100-yard rushers against those defenses). But up until now, the point of the BCS has never been to figure out which team presents the most difficult match-up for the #1 team and then put that team #2. Teams with crap schedules usually have to win all of their games, especially their big home games.
Close Games Don't Have Co-Winners
No, the LSU loss doesn't get to go in the "good" column when looking at Alabama's season. Winning by three is more than three points better than losing by three. I've just been amazed how the November 5 game has been turned into some sort of meaningless exhibition, as if its fantasy football and 30 yards is worth the same amount of points as a field-goal. I could've sworn that the inability to win close games was considered a bad thing, not something basically on par with winning. I guess it turns out Dinardo actually did pretty well his last two years at LSU.
Alabama lost to LSU by the same amount that Oregon, Northwestern, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Western Kentucky, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Georgia did...by one football game.
Bling
Every 4-year player from all of LSU's signing classes since 1998 has an SEC Championship ring. With a win on January 9, every 4-year player from all of LSU's signing classes since 2000 will have a National Championship Ring to go along with it.
Alabama's kickers, for the year, are two for twelve in field goals of more than 37 yards. Let me repeat - Alabama has attempted twelve kicks from outside of the redzone this season, and only two of them have gone in. The one for four performance against LSU wasn't some kind of crazy statistical anomaly - they were one for eight in their other games, and the LSU game actually significantly improved their distance kicking average for the year. Based on their average for the entire season, it would take about 18 attempts for Bama to make 3 of the field-goals they attempted on November 5.
Remember this when they shank every mid-to-long range attempt in the Championship game and people act like its LSU getting lucky again.
"No Ceilings"
For those of you who don't keep up with such things, that's what Hard Hittin' Hilliard's celebration means. Hilliard got 2 carries for 2 yards against Alabama in November, from the fullback position if I'm not mistaken. Since then he's had 40 carries for 233 yards and 6 TD's, along with another TD receiving, with 174 yards and 4 TDs coming over the last 2 games, both against top-10 opponents. I expect him to be used a lot more this time around.
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2 for 12
Alabama's kickers, for the year, are two for twelve in field goals of more than 37 yards. Let me repeat - Alabama has attempted twelve kicks from outside of the redzone this season, and only two of them have gone in. The one for four performance against LSU wasn't some kind of crazy statistical anomaly - they were one for eight in their other games, and the LSU game actually significantly improved their distance kicking average for the year. Based on their average for the entire season, it would take about 18 attempts for Bama to make 3 of the field-goals they attempted on November 5.
Remember this when they shank every mid-to-long range attempt in the Championship game and people act like its LSU getting lucky again.
"No Ceilings"
For those of you who don't keep up with such things, that's what Hard Hittin' Hilliard's celebration means. Hilliard got 2 carries for 2 yards against Alabama in November, from the fullback position if I'm not mistaken. Since then he's had 40 carries for 233 yards and 6 TD's, along with another TD receiving, with 174 yards and 4 TDs coming over the last 2 games, both against top-10 opponents. I expect him to be used a lot more this time around.
Opponents of LSU in 2011 have attempted 38 25+ yard passes. Four were completed, with one going for a touchdown. Twenty-five were incompletions. NINE were intercepted.
LSU has given up 7 passing TD's this season. LSU defensive backs have scored 8 TD's this season.
LSU has scored 6 TD's while trailing this year. Tyrann Mathieu scored 3 of them. A fourth came after a Mathieu fumble recovery in the redzone.
LSU DBs have now won the Thorpe (Top DB) and Bednarik (Top Defensive Player) Awards two years in a row, and this was the first time ever that both 1st team AP All-Americans corner-backs were from the same school. Which leads us to......
The Awards
LSU had only had one guy on the preseason Coaches All-SEC First Team, putting them behind Alabama (7), Georgia (6), South Carolina (4), Arkansas (3), and Kentucky (2), and tied with Ole Miss, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. The Tigers had seven players total on the Coaches Preseason 1st, 2nd and 3rd team Offensive and Defensive teams, tied with Auburn for fifth in the league behind Arkansas (14), Alabama (13), South Carolina (9), Georgia (9). They ended up doing pretty well with postseason awards though.
Les Miles SEC Coach of the Year (Associated Press) The Home Depot Coach of the Year SEC Coach of the Year (SEC Coaches Award) SEC Coach of the Year (Rivals.com) Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year - Finalist Liberty Mutual Insurance Coach of the Year - Finalist
John Chavis Broyles Award SEC Coordinator of the Year (Rivals.com)
Greg Studrawa SEC Offensive Coordinator of the Year (Rivals.com)
Tommy Moffitt Strength Performance College Coach's Choice Award
Frank Wilson Running Backs Coach of the Year (FootballScoop)
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DB-U
Opponents of LSU in 2011 have attempted 38 25+ yard passes. Four were completed, with one going for a touchdown. Twenty-five were incompletions. NINE were intercepted.
LSU has given up 7 passing TD's this season. LSU defensive backs have scored 8 TD's this season.
LSU has scored 6 TD's while trailing this year. Tyrann Mathieu scored 3 of them. A fourth came after a Mathieu fumble recovery in the redzone.
LSU DBs have now won the Thorpe (Top DB) and Bednarik (Top Defensive Player) Awards two years in a row, and this was the first time ever that both 1st team AP All-Americans corner-backs were from the same school. Which leads us to......
The Awards
LSU had only had one guy on the preseason Coaches All-SEC First Team, putting them behind Alabama (7), Georgia (6), South Carolina (4), Arkansas (3), and Kentucky (2), and tied with Ole Miss, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. The Tigers had seven players total on the Coaches Preseason 1st, 2nd and 3rd team Offensive and Defensive teams, tied with Auburn for fifth in the league behind Arkansas (14), Alabama (13), South Carolina (9), Georgia (9). They ended up doing pretty well with postseason awards though.
Les Miles SEC Coach of the Year (Associated Press) The Home Depot Coach of the Year SEC Coach of the Year (SEC Coaches Award) SEC Coach of the Year (Rivals.com) Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year - Finalist Liberty Mutual Insurance Coach of the Year - Finalist
John Chavis Broyles Award SEC Coordinator of the Year (Rivals.com)
Greg Studrawa SEC Offensive Coordinator of the Year (Rivals.com)
Tommy Moffitt Strength Performance College Coach's Choice Award
Frank Wilson Running Backs Coach of the Year (FootballScoop)
Tyrann Mathieu Heisman Memorial Trophy - Finalist Walter Camp - Finalist Chuck Bednarik Winner Defensive Player of the Year (Associated Press) Defensive Player of the Year (FoxSports.com) First Team All-SEC (Associated Press) First Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches) SEC Player of the Year (Rivals.com) First Team Defense All-America Team (CBSSports.com) First Team Special Teams All-America Team (CBSSports.com) First Team Defense All-America Team (FoxSports.com) Second Team APB All-America Team (FoxSports.com) SEC Defensive Player of the Week (11/28/11) Walter Camp Player of the Week (11/28/11) Walter Camp Player of the Week (9/27/11) Thorpe Award Back of the Week (9/6/11) SEC Defensive Player of the Week (9/6/11)
Morris Claiborne SEC Defensive Player of the Year (SEC Coaches) First Team All-American (American Football Coaches Association) First Team All-SEC (Associated Press) First Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches) First Team Defense All-America Team (CBSSports.com) First Team Defense All-America Team (FoxSports.com) Jim Thorpe Winner Bronko Nagurski - Finalist Walter Camp - Semi-finalist Walter Camp Player of the Week (9/18/11)
Sam Montgomery First Team All-SEC (Associated Press) First Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches) Ted Hendricks - Finalist First Team Defense All-America Team (FoxSports.com) SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (11/8/11) SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (10/4/11)
Anthony Johnson Freshman All-SEC Team (SEC Coaches) Freshman All-America Team (CBSSports.com)
Michael Brockers Second Team All-SEC (Associated Press)
Benny Logan SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (9/18/11)
Eric Reid Second Team All-SEC (Associated Press) Nagurski Defensive Player of the Week (11/8/11) SEC Defensive Player of the Week (11/8/11)
Ryan Baker Second Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches)
Ron Brooks SEC Defensive Player of the Week (11/21/11)
Barkevious Mingo Second Team All-SEC (Associated Press) SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (10/25/11)
Will Blackwell First Team All-SEC (Associated Press) First Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches) First Team Offense All-America Team (FoxSports.com) Second Team Offense All-America Team (CBSSports.com) SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week (11/21/11) SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week (10/11/11)
Chris Faulk Second Team All-SEC (Associated Press) SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week (10/18/11)
La'El Collins Freshman All-America Team (CBSSports.com)
Rueben Randle Second Team All-SEC (Associated Press) First Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches)
Spencer Ware Second Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches)
Kenny Hilliard Freshman All-SEC Team (SEC Coaches) SEC Offensive Player of the Week (11/28/11)
Odell Beckham Jr. Freshman All-SEC Team (SEC Coaches) SEC Freshman of the Week (9/18/11)
Brad Wing First Team All-SEC (Associated Press) Second Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches) First Team Special Teams All-America Team (CBSSports.com) Freshman All-America Team (CBSSports.com) First Team Special Teams All-America Team (FoxSports.com) Freshman All-SEC Team (SEC Coaches) Ray Guy - Semi-finalist SEC Special Teams Player of the Week (10/25/11) SEC Special Teams Player of the Week (9/27/11)
Drew Alleman Lou Groza - Semi-finalist Second Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches) Second Team All-SEC (Associated Press) Lou Groza Star of the Week (11/8/11) Lou Groza Star of the Week (9/18/11)
James Hairston Freshman All-SEC Team (SEC Coaches)
Tyrann Mathieu Heisman Memorial Trophy - Finalist Walter Camp - Finalist Chuck Bednarik Winner Defensive Player of the Year (Associated Press) Defensive Player of the Year (FoxSports.com) First Team All-SEC (Associated Press) First Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches) SEC Player of the Year (Rivals.com) First Team Defense All-America Team (CBSSports.com) First Team Special Teams All-America Team (CBSSports.com) First Team Defense All-America Team (FoxSports.com) Second Team APB All-America Team (FoxSports.com) SEC Defensive Player of the Week (11/28/11) Walter Camp Player of the Week (11/28/11) Walter Camp Player of the Week (9/27/11) Thorpe Award Back of the Week (9/6/11) SEC Defensive Player of the Week (9/6/11)
Morris Claiborne SEC Defensive Player of the Year (SEC Coaches) First Team All-American (American Football Coaches Association) First Team All-SEC (Associated Press) First Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches) First Team Defense All-America Team (CBSSports.com) First Team Defense All-America Team (FoxSports.com) Jim Thorpe Winner Bronko Nagurski - Finalist Walter Camp - Semi-finalist Walter Camp Player of the Week (9/18/11)
Sam Montgomery First Team All-SEC (Associated Press) First Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches) Ted Hendricks - Finalist First Team Defense All-America Team (FoxSports.com) SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (11/8/11) SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (10/4/11)
Anthony Johnson Freshman All-SEC Team (SEC Coaches) Freshman All-America Team (CBSSports.com)
Michael Brockers Second Team All-SEC (Associated Press)
Benny Logan SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (9/18/11)
Eric Reid Second Team All-SEC (Associated Press) Nagurski Defensive Player of the Week (11/8/11) SEC Defensive Player of the Week (11/8/11)
Ryan Baker Second Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches)
Ron Brooks SEC Defensive Player of the Week (11/21/11)
Barkevious Mingo Second Team All-SEC (Associated Press) SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (10/25/11)
Will Blackwell First Team All-SEC (Associated Press) First Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches) First Team Offense All-America Team (FoxSports.com) Second Team Offense All-America Team (CBSSports.com) SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week (11/21/11) SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week (10/11/11)
Chris Faulk Second Team All-SEC (Associated Press) SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week (10/18/11)
La'El Collins Freshman All-America Team (CBSSports.com)
Rueben Randle Second Team All-SEC (Associated Press) First Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches)
Spencer Ware Second Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches)
Kenny Hilliard Freshman All-SEC Team (SEC Coaches) SEC Offensive Player of the Week (11/28/11)
Odell Beckham Jr. Freshman All-SEC Team (SEC Coaches) SEC Freshman of the Week (9/18/11)
Brad Wing First Team All-SEC (Associated Press) Second Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches) First Team Special Teams All-America Team (CBSSports.com) Freshman All-America Team (CBSSports.com) First Team Special Teams All-America Team (FoxSports.com) Freshman All-SEC Team (SEC Coaches) Ray Guy - Semi-finalist SEC Special Teams Player of the Week (10/25/11) SEC Special Teams Player of the Week (9/27/11)
Drew Alleman Lou Groza - Semi-finalist Second Team All-SEC (SEC Coaches) Second Team All-SEC (Associated Press) Lou Groza Star of the Week (11/8/11) Lou Groza Star of the Week (9/18/11)
James Hairston Freshman All-SEC Team (SEC Coaches)
This thread on the Rant was pretty sweet. Click through for highlights from each of the games.
2000 Season - 2000 Peach Bowl: LSU 28, Georgia Tech 14 2001 Season - 2002 Sugar Bowl: LSU 47, Illinois 34 2003 Season - 2004 Sugar Bowl: LSU 21, Oklahoma 14 2005 Season - 2005 Peach Bowl: LSU 40, Miami 3 2006 Season - 2007 Sugar Bowl: LSU 41, Notre Dame 14 2007 Season - 2008 BCSCG: LSU 38, Ohio State 24 2008 Season - 2008 Peach Bowl: LSU 38, Georgia Tech 3 2010 Season - 2011 Cotton Bowl: LSU 41, A&M 24
The Schedule
LSU finished undefeated against the toughest schedule anyone faced this season according to the NCAA rankings. To get an idea of just how impressive LSU's season was, here's a list of the bowl participation by teams that LSU defeated (Wins for each team listed in parentheses):
The BCS National Championship Game (BCS Game) (11 wins), the Rose Bowl (BCS Game) (11 wins), the Orange Bowl (BCS Game) (9 wins), the Outback Bowl (10 wins), the Cotton Bowl (10 wins), the Chick-Fil-A Bowl (7 wins), the Music City Bowl (6 wins), the Gator Bowl (6 wins)
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Bowl Dominance
This thread on the Rant was pretty sweet. Click through for highlights from each of the games.
2000 Season - 2000 Peach Bowl: LSU 28, Georgia Tech 14 2001 Season - 2002 Sugar Bowl: LSU 47, Illinois 34 2003 Season - 2004 Sugar Bowl: LSU 21, Oklahoma 14 2005 Season - 2005 Peach Bowl: LSU 40, Miami 3 2006 Season - 2007 Sugar Bowl: LSU 41, Notre Dame 14 2007 Season - 2008 BCSCG: LSU 38, Ohio State 24 2008 Season - 2008 Peach Bowl: LSU 38, Georgia Tech 3 2010 Season - 2011 Cotton Bowl: LSU 41, A&M 24
The Schedule
LSU finished undefeated against the toughest schedule anyone faced this season according to the NCAA rankings. To get an idea of just how impressive LSU's season was, here's a list of the bowl participation by teams that LSU defeated (Wins for each team listed in parentheses):
The BCS National Championship Game (BCS Game) (11 wins), the Rose Bowl (BCS Game) (11 wins), the Orange Bowl (BCS Game) (9 wins), the Outback Bowl (10 wins), the Cotton Bowl (10 wins), the Chick-Fil-A Bowl (7 wins), the Music City Bowl (6 wins), the Gator Bowl (6 wins)
I've figured out that the best way for me to accurately predict the score in LSU games this season is to come up with an initial prediction and then add 2-3 LSU scores and take away roughly 1 opponent score. So sticking with that formula, 17-13 turns into....can't believe this is my actual prediction....
LSU 30 Bama 10
Turns out I wasn't even close, off by several TDs, and the only thing I had right was LSU winning. I'd like to point out that I've been very close with all of my predictions since that game, predicting 42-6 against Western Kentucky (actual 42-9), 52-0 against Ole Miss (actual 52-3), 38-17 against Arkansas (actual 41-17), and 35-10 against UGA (actual 42-10).
This time, after careful consideration, and taking into account everything I learned from my completely wrong prediction for Round 1, I've decided to give LSU an additional point because the game is being played in Louisiana:
LSU 31 Bama 10
I think the emergence of Hilliard will make a difference, along with a healthy O-line (Lonergan played against Bama, but he missed the two games prior and wasn't at 100%, and T-Bob was banged up as well).
I also think Lee's second INT (the first play of the second drive of the second half) completely changed the dynamic of the game, allowing Bama to take a lead without having to move the football and taking away an LSU scoring opportunity, or at minimum, an opportunity to pound on Alabama's defense. It looked like we started controlling the line of scrimmage by the end of the fourth and in OT, but it could've been earlier than that if not for a wasted possession.
LSU also got some games in against a pumped up Arkansas team and a very good defense in the SECCG, while Bama hasn't played anyone even decent since November 5, and hasn't played in a hostile environment against a good team since their loss in Baton Rouge last season. I'm a little concerned about how terrible our O looked in the first half against UGA, but I've rationalized it by convincing myself that we were just attempting to over-power them with a very basic offense and didn't want to show any good plays we thought would work against a 3-4 because we knew Alabama was watching.
I expect a close game for over a half, and then LSU scores to go ahead by a score sometime in the third quarter, and then Alabama panics and makes a couple of mistakes and we go on one of our 21-0 runs over a 5 minute span, and then all is well in the world.
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The Prediction - Restoring Order
Me, week of November 5, 2011:
I've figured out that the best way for me to accurately predict the score in LSU games this season is to come up with an initial prediction and then add 2-3 LSU scores and take away roughly 1 opponent score. So sticking with that formula, 17-13 turns into....can't believe this is my actual prediction....
LSU 30 Bama 10
Turns out I wasn't even close, off by several TDs, and the only thing I had right was LSU winning. I'd like to point out that I've been very close with all of my predictions since that game, predicting 42-6 against Western Kentucky (actual 42-9), 52-0 against Ole Miss (actual 52-3), 38-17 against Arkansas (actual 41-17), and 35-10 against UGA (actual 42-10).
This time, after careful consideration, and taking into account everything I learned from my completely wrong prediction for Round 1, I've decided to give LSU an additional point because the game is being played in Louisiana:
LSU 31 Bama 10
I think the emergence of Hilliard will make a difference, along with a healthy O-line (Lonergan played against Bama, but he missed the two games prior and wasn't at 100%, and T-Bob was banged up as well).
I also think Lee's second INT (the first play of the second drive of the second half) completely changed the dynamic of the game, allowing Bama to take a lead without having to move the football and taking away an LSU scoring opportunity, or at minimum, an opportunity to pound on Alabama's defense. It looked like we started controlling the line of scrimmage by the end of the fourth and in OT, but it could've been earlier than that if not for a wasted possession.
LSU also got some games in against a pumped up Arkansas team and a very good defense in the SECCG, while Bama hasn't played anyone even decent since November 5, and hasn't played in a hostile environment against a good team since their loss in Baton Rouge last season. I'm a little concerned about how terrible our O looked in the first half against UGA, but I've rationalized it by convincing myself that we were just attempting to over-power them with a very basic offense and didn't want to show any good plays we thought would work against a 3-4 because we knew Alabama was watching.
I expect a close game for over a half, and then LSU scores to go ahead by a score sometime in the third quarter, and then Alabama panics and makes a couple of mistakes and we go on one of our 21-0 runs over a 5 minute span, and then all is well in the world.
wow. havent read the whole thing but just scrolled down. it looks like you have damn good write up and a damn good read on this game. i will read this whenever i have time but thanks for the insight! BOL
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wow. havent read the whole thing but just scrolled down. it looks like you have damn good write up and a damn good read on this game. i will read this whenever i have time but thanks for the insight! BOL
A little LSU bias, how about all LSU bias! You act like Alabama did not out play LSU in the first game! It missed four field goals, that game should have never been in overtime. It actually has a QB that can throw the ball! Who cares what awards whoever has won, that has nothing to do with this game! If you go soley off of the one game they played this year, I have no idea how you come out with LSU blowing the doors off of Bama! Alabama has just as good if not better D and is the only team that is close to LSU. There is a reason that Alabama is favored in the 2nd game also! Come up with some real reasons and not a bunch of B.S. by a homer LSU fan!
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A little LSU bias, how about all LSU bias! You act like Alabama did not out play LSU in the first game! It missed four field goals, that game should have never been in overtime. It actually has a QB that can throw the ball! Who cares what awards whoever has won, that has nothing to do with this game! If you go soley off of the one game they played this year, I have no idea how you come out with LSU blowing the doors off of Bama! Alabama has just as good if not better D and is the only team that is close to LSU. There is a reason that Alabama is favored in the 2nd game also! Come up with some real reasons and not a bunch of B.S. by a homer LSU fan!
When Alabama got a first and 10 at LSU's 30 and in, they ran 21 plays. (2 5 yard penalties were not included in these stats)
21 plays: (1) 8 yard gain (1) turnover - Maze's interception (5) negative plays (9) 0-1 yard plays (5) FG attempts. (The attempt in OT was from the 35. Total of -12 yards, not including the -10 from penalties. This is for the entire game!
Trent Richardson's touches in the second half and OT were as follows:
14 touches: 12 carries and 2 catches 12 carries: 10 for 3 yards or less with 2 negative carr. One for 24 and one for 9 yards. 2 catches: One for 2 yards and One for 17.
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When Alabama got a first and 10 at LSU's 30 and in, they ran 21 plays. (2 5 yard penalties were not included in these stats)
21 plays: (1) 8 yard gain (1) turnover - Maze's interception (5) negative plays (9) 0-1 yard plays (5) FG attempts. (The attempt in OT was from the 35. Total of -12 yards, not including the -10 from penalties. This is for the entire game!
Trent Richardson's touches in the second half and OT were as follows:
14 touches: 12 carries and 2 catches 12 carries: 10 for 3 yards or less with 2 negative carr. One for 24 and one for 9 yards. 2 catches: One for 2 yards and One for 17.
That shows you how much Alabama moved the ball against LSU! What did Jordan Jefferson do against Bama?! They misawell not even try to throw the ball, did you see how bad there passing numbers where? A.J. Mcarron at least had 199yds! Everyone is feeding into the hype machine that is ESPN, dont get me wrong LSU is a great team and has had a great season but as we have seen in the past there is no team in College that is unbeatable!
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That shows you how much Alabama moved the ball against LSU! What did Jordan Jefferson do against Bama?! They misawell not even try to throw the ball, did you see how bad there passing numbers where? A.J. Mcarron at least had 199yds! Everyone is feeding into the hype machine that is ESPN, dont get me wrong LSU is a great team and has had a great season but as we have seen in the past there is no team in College that is unbeatable!
That shows you how much Alabama moved the ball against LSU! What did Jordan Jefferson do against Bama?! They misawell not even try to throw the ball, did you see how bad there passing numbers where? A.J. Mcarron at least had 199yds! Everyone is feeding into the hype machine that is ESPN, dont get me wrong LSU is a great team and has had a great season but as we have seen in the past there is no team in College that is unbeatable!
Im not sure what hype machine you are watching, but ESPN has picked Bama over and over again to win this rematch.
JJ didnt do much at all through the air. 6/10 for a little under 70 I believe.
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Quote Originally Posted by sc8383:
That shows you how much Alabama moved the ball against LSU! What did Jordan Jefferson do against Bama?! They misawell not even try to throw the ball, did you see how bad there passing numbers where? A.J. Mcarron at least had 199yds! Everyone is feeding into the hype machine that is ESPN, dont get me wrong LSU is a great team and has had a great season but as we have seen in the past there is no team in College that is unbeatable!
Im not sure what hype machine you are watching, but ESPN has picked Bama over and over again to win this rematch.
JJ didnt do much at all through the air. 6/10 for a little under 70 I believe.
Let's not forget J. Lee wasn't benched until the second half. Jefferson's season has only gotten better since becoming the sole QB following the Alabama game.
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Let's not forget J. Lee wasn't benched until the second half. Jefferson's season has only gotten better since becoming the sole QB following the Alabama game.
Well if aynone in this thread wants to go with the prediction and take LSU -20, I'll bet you whatever you want.
I'm obviously a Bama homer and think they are going to win, but to predict Bama getting beat by 21 is crazy....Bama's D isnt going to give up 31 points.
I would type up some counter arguments, but the game is 4 days 8 hours 21 minutes away...I'll come back in 5 days and discuss.
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Well if aynone in this thread wants to go with the prediction and take LSU -20, I'll bet you whatever you want.
I'm obviously a Bama homer and think they are going to win, but to predict Bama getting beat by 21 is crazy....Bama's D isnt going to give up 31 points.
I would type up some counter arguments, but the game is 4 days 8 hours 21 minutes away...I'll come back in 5 days and discuss.
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