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TD Week 1

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Posted: #1
Hi everyone,
     Want to take a quick minute to re-introduce myself before I get to some week 1 plays & leans.  I started on Covers before the 2013 football season.  For several reasons I didn't post basically at all after October 1..... death in the family, moved twice in four months, worked extremely long hours between moves.  I grew up in a football family as my Dad coached 30+ years in the profession.  I'm an engineer, so personality wise I enjoy analyzing matchups, situations, numbers.  Wouldn't you know it that my job took me to Las Vegas about three years ago.  No longer there and miss betting cash, but still going elsewhere online.
 
I've mixed in a few of my early bets in other's threads when a game was being discussed, but wanted to start my own thread.
 
Week 1 bets locked in:
Eastern Illinois +35 (1U)
Mississippi -9.5 (2U)
Boston College -13 (1U)
LSU/Wisconsin Under 50.5 (2U)
 
Also locked in on one week 2 bet with Michigan State +14.
 
Leans:
Troy PK
Texas / North Texas Under 50.5
Kent State / Ohio U.  Under 50.5
 
There's several FCS vs. FBS games I will bet once lines are released.  Too many to list now, but I'll add plays going forward.  I've done well in the past on these games and FCS playoffs.
 
Looking forward to some good college football discussion on here.
 
TD
 
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Posted: #2
Looking forward to your input this season. cant argue with any of your early plays.
 
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Posted: #3
Michigan St will win straight up by 4 in Eugene
 
Legend
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Posted: #4
Like Bos. College and Wis / LSU un 
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Looking forward to your input this season. cant argue with any of your early plays.

Thanks Train,

     Been a long time reader, looking forward to your threads and picks as always.  You're a Mizzou fan, correct? 

 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by strippersnbens:

Michigan St will win straight up by 4 in Eugene

strippersnbens, I hope so.  And I think the Spartans have a realistic chance to win outright as well.  Will likely make a ML play as well.  Maybe even mix MSU ML into a ML parlay.

Best of luck to you this season. 

TD

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Thanks Train,

     Been a long time reader, looking forward to your threads and picks as always.  You're a Mizzou fan, correct? 

Yes sir
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Like Bos. College and Wis / LSU un 

WISE, Thanks for the feedback.  Great work on your contributions to the forum.  I can tell you're someone that the veterans trust and respect.  

TD
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Yes sir

Nice.  I follow the Tigers as well.  Know some of them on staff from years ago.  A real good group.  Hate to say it, but the Tigers could be in for a tough year.  7-5ish.  Maybe even 6-6.  But last year at this time I thought GP was on the hot seat and they exceeded my expectations by a mile.  Hopefully they'll surprise again.  Best of luck to you this season, Train.  
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


WISE, Thanks for the feedback.  Great work on your contributions to the forum.  I can tell you're someone that the veterans trust and respect.  

TD







TD, Thank you for your kind words.I'll try to offer my
        opinions as well a be an encouragement to others
        during the season , I hope we all do well this year.

        Best of Luck to you  
       
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #11
Death in the family, moved twice in four months, worked extremely long hours between moves.  I grew up in a football family as my Dad coached 30+ years in the profession.

NO excuses man......get your a-s-s in gear.................

good stuff from you TD.....BOL this year buddy............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #12
Love the Ole Miss pick...GL this season! 
LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

Death in the family, moved twice in four months, worked extremely long hours between moves.  I grew up in a football family as my Dad coached 30+ years in the profession.

NO excuses man......get your a-s-s in gear.................

good stuff from you TD.....BOL this year buddy............

10-4  BA.    Getting ready for the '14 season a little more every day.  BTW, I still managed to bet and have a winning season last year, but couldn't keep up with posting too.  Being a new guy, trying to earn some credibility I always felt like a matchup / writeup / long explanation was something to provide.  I now understand why many on here post plays only or plays and a brief writeup.  The time any of us puts into this makes a huge difference.  2012 was my best year in the short three years I've done this and I have to say it was b/c of being prepared, having a $ plan, being disciplined, watching a lot of football and putting the time in.
Thanks for dropping in and giving me a hard time.  Best of luck to you as well.   

TD
 
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Posted: #14
Week 1 bets locked in:
Eastern Illinois +35 (1U)
Mississippi -9.5 (2U)
Boston College -13 (1U)
LSU/Wisconsin Under 50.5 (2U)
 
Just added:
Ohio University at Kent State Under 50  (1U)
 
TD
 
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Posted: #15
nice looking card, you got a great number with EIU



 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Week 1 bets locked in:
Eastern Illinois +35 (1U)
Mississippi -9.5 (2U)
Boston College -13 (1U)
LSU/Wisconsin Under 50.5 (2U)
 
Just added:
Ohio University at Kent State Under 50  (1U)
 
again, love Mississippi!     
 
Can you give your rationale for BC...yes, I know UMASS sucks, and BC has a great coach who inspired his troops to play Fla St close last season.   What is your predicted score?    Thanks and Hook em
 
TD
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Posted: #17
Can you give your rationale for BC...yes, I know UMASS sucks, and BC has a great coach who inspired his troops to play Fla St close last season.   What is your predicted score?    Thanks and Hook em

LonghornHoosier,
     Rationale behind BC-13 is a combination of value and matchup IMO.  
     If BC had played UMass at the end of the '13 season, line would be approx 25-27.  In the thread about Why does a line move, Wise pointed out that Books always ask themselves 'How do we minimize risk when we hang a line?' From another thread with actual lines provided to Books by a linemaker, this game was at 18.  Thanks nickeydyme for sharing this info!  BC with heavy losses to graduation, so Books were clearly concerned that bettors would not back BC with only 9 returning starters and they adjusted from there what they felt was appropriate.  I suspect Offshore books just "overcorrected" slightly when they opened at -13.  BTW, when Vegas opened at -14.5 earlier this week, the offshore line quickly moved to -14.5 as well.  Just as an initial on-the-surface review, I had a hard time believing a line could change by 12-14 points from the end of one season to the start of the next, even with substantial personnel losses.
     From there went to Matchup review to see if it made sense.  Yes, overall for 2014, BC will be down from LY and UMass should improve.  But, for this specific matchup in week 1, the big mismatch I see is in the trenches.  Since he became a head coach Addazio has made it clear he wants his teams to play a physical brand of football and establish the running game.  Temple '11, 257 ypg rushing, Temple '12, 201 ypg rushing and BC '13, 212 ypg rushing.  BC rushed for only 93 ypg just one year before under their previous HC.  The one returning strength BC has is their interior O-line.  Three SR starters return at C, LG & RG.  And a Florida transfer could/should be plugged in at tackle.  I expect BC to pound the running game vs. UMass.  On defense UMass returns only 2 of 7 starters from their front 7 and is moving back to a 3-4 alignment.  UMass losses include the team's defensive MVP (a DT) and two more interior linemen in their regular rotation plus a starting DE.  Against decent running teams, UMass struggled to slow down the running game and with these graduation losses, I believe this will continue vs a team with BC's run heavy play calling.
Running out of time to go over UMass offense vs. BC defense....  but UMass does have a chance to be much improved on offense at some point in '14 as they learn the new offense.  Whipple said his offseason focus was to give his players some confidence as his predecessor's coaching style never built them up to have much of any confidence.  If I had to pick a score, I'd say around 35-14.

Best of luck to you this season Longhorn.  
TD
     
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Can you give your rationale for BC...yes, I know UMASS sucks, and BC has a great coach who inspired his troops to play Fla St close last season.   What is your predicted score?    Thanks and Hook em

LonghornHoosier,
     Rationale behind BC-13 is a combination of value and matchup IMO.  
     If BC had played UMass at the end of the '13 season, line would be approx 25-27.  In the thread about Why does a line move, Wise pointed out that Books always ask themselves 'How do we minimize risk when we hang a line?' From another thread with actual lines provided to Books by a linemaker, this game was at 18.  Thanks nickeydyme for sharing this info!  BC with heavy losses to graduation, so Books were clearly concerned that bettors would not back BC with only 9 returning starters and they adjusted from there what they felt was appropriate.  I suspect Offshore books just "overcorrected" slightly when they opened at -13.  BTW, when Vegas opened at -14.5 earlier this week, the offshore line quickly moved to -14.5 as well.  Just as an initial on-the-surface review, I had a hard time believing a line could change by 12-14 points from the end of one season to the start of the next, even with substantial personnel losses.
     From there went to Matchup review to see if it made sense.  Yes, overall for 2014, BC will be down from LY and UMass should improve.  But, for this specific matchup in week 1, the big mismatch I see is in the trenches.  Since he became a head coach Addazio has made it clear he wants his teams to play a physical brand of football and establish the running game.  Temple '11, 257 ypg rushing, Temple '12, 201 ypg rushing and BC '13, 212 ypg rushing.  BC rushed for only 93 ypg just one year before under their previous HC.  The one returning strength BC has is their interior O-line.  Three SR starters return at C, LG & RG.  And a Florida transfer could/should be plugged in at tackle.  I expect BC to pound the running game vs. UMass.  On defense UMass returns only 2 of 7 starters from their front 7 and is moving back to a 3-4 alignment.  UMass losses include the team's defensive MVP (a DT) and two more interior linemen in their regular rotation plus a starting DE.  Against decent running teams, UMass struggled to slow down the running game and with these graduation losses, I believe this will continue vs a team with BC's run heavy play calling.
Running out of time to go over UMass offense vs. BC defense....  but UMass does have a chance to be much improved on offense at some point in '14 as they learn the new offense.  Whipple said his offseason focus was to give his players some confidence as his predecessor's coaching style never built them up to have much of any confidence.  If I had to pick a score, I'd say around 35-14.

Best of luck to you this season Longhorn.  
TD
     
 
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Posted: #19
Love the Boston College -13 play. One of my week 1 favorites.
 
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Posted: #20
I will pass on Boston College, There are better games on the board for Week 1.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Week 1 bets locked in:
Eastern Illinois +35 (1U)
Mississippi -9.5 (2U)
Boston College -13 (1U)
LSU/Wisconsin Under 50.5 (2U)
 
Just added:
Ohio University at Kent State Under 50  (1U)
 
TD

Just bumped this Ohio U at Kent State Under 50 to 2U.

Also added several FCS games just now on 5dimes.  Yes, -120 and yes, lines are already jumping around even with them capping max bets.  This is what I have:
Old Dominion -22.5
Old Dominion -23.5
William & Mary +19
Northern Iowa +17
Iowa State +3.5
Jacksonville State +33.5
Middle Tennessee State -38
Cal POLY -3
Air Force -15.5
Air Force -16.5

TD





 
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Posted: #22
Side note, Eastern Illinois at Minnesota now at 15.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Side note, Eastern Illinois at Minnesota now at 15.


yeah....looks like decent value at 33'...............

like that AF.....Calhoun desperate...and will run it up when he can
  *Nichols St only 5/5 st back from 4-8.....
      KEY > TERRIBLE run D.....allowed 6.7/rush...........

Liberty is tough....but nobody...likes to beat the living h e l l outta FCS teams like Larry Fedora/UNC...last 3 he covered by 37 points/g
  *same thing at SMIss
Flames (bad mascot ha)....are coached by TGill.....about 8/4 st...bring back top QB but RB Rice is hurt (OFY maybe)
D was # 9 in FCS....but lose 6/10 tacklers
  *Flames lost to Old D 21-17....UNC beat Old D 80-20........  

Checking out TCU as well.....Patterson also not afraid to shred the less fortunate.....hey it's the American way so what.....
  Samford 5/8 st back from 8-5......D not bad but O loses AA RB and conf POY QB...........offense couldn't run vs FCS competition WITH those guys.....uh-oh
  KEY?....1)  Frogs with a bye before MInny....they absolutely cannot have a weak game here....players know the HORRIFIC practices they will have if Patterson is pissed
2)  Frogs putting in a new O....and will not pull starters....both QBs MUST have game reps
3) Frogs one of nation's best conditioned teams....they (often) work at the hottest times of the day..........................
Old D you bet....Jax St too.............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #24

like the Wisc/LSU Under 50.5 BC -13, and Miss -9.5

The Wisc/LSU under looks especially enticing...I don't normally play O/U, but I may have to make an exception in week 1.   I would appreciate any further guidance that you have on that play...

Cheers

LonghornHoosier
 
 
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Posted: #25
BA,
Like the analysis on Liberty / UNC and Samford / TCU. Neither of those were really on my radar. I was on Liberty +31 last year at Kent State. Pretty amazing the comparison of 31 vs. an average MAC team and now same team with less returning Def starters against UNC is 27.5. Hmmm....... Undervalued one year and overvalued the next.
I noticed TCU schedule with 2 byes in 5 weeks leading ino Oklahoma game. Going to their version of the Air Raid. Sanford has the transfer QB from ASU. Tall kid, his name escapes me off the top of my head posting this morning. Probably doesn't matter. The Patterson coaching angle is good to know. Thanks.
.... Yeah, Nicholls State last 5 or 6 games last year gave up on average like 290 ypg against Sourhland conf foes. Checked their offseason additions and did not see anything significant to shore up the D-line.

Any guesses on opening totals for W&M / Va Tech and Central Arkansas / Texas Tech?

TD
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