All Forums | College Football

TD Week 1

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 3610
Posts: 53
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 26658
Posted: #26
Good luck td
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by shakey12381:

Good luck td

Thanks shakey,

Good luck to you this season as well.  

TD
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2008
Posts: 49
Posted: #28
THE CAPPIN IN HERE IS ON FIRE RIGHT NOW

TD excellent stuff on the BC breakdown.  Don't know if I have ever read any of your post, as I read more than I post obviously, but you have the exact same picks as my leans though i'm taking E. Ill off now.  Planning on hittin a six teamer opening weekend. 

Bookie = always great;  I greatly appreciate info you provide as you confirm my cappin but consistently add something i didn't see

Wise = rock solid

Outside of these leans
Mississippi -9.5 
Boston College -13
LSU/Wisconsin Under 50.5

My others are:
Temple +16
Texas A&M +10.5
W Kentucky +8
Arizona St -43.5


 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #29
Jayharp10,
Good to hear from you. Hope we're on the right track and start the year strong in week 1. I'm confident in these plays. BOL on your six teamer. I like the Temple +16 and WKU +8 as well, but have not yet done complete due diligence on both sides of each game to consider a play. .... Know more about BGSU & Vandy at this point.

Again, BOL and I look forward to talking some college football with you this season.

TD
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 34171
Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Can you give your rationale for BC...yes, I know UMASS sucks, and BC has a great coach who inspired his troops to play Fla St close last season.   What is your predicted score?    Thanks and Hook em

LonghornHoosier,
     Rationale behind BC-13 is a combination of value and matchup IMO.  
     If BC had played UMass at the end of the '13 season, line would be approx 25-27.  In the thread about Why does a line move, Wise pointed out that Books always ask themselves 'How do we minimize risk when we hang a line?' From another thread with actual lines provided to Books by a linemaker, this game was at 18.  Thanks nickeydyme for sharing this info!  BC with heavy losses to graduation, so Books were clearly concerned that bettors would not back BC with only 9 returning starters and they adjusted from there what they felt was appropriate.  I suspect Offshore books just "overcorrected" slightly when they opened at -13.  BTW, when Vegas opened at -14.5 earlier this week, the offshore line quickly moved to -14.5 as well.  Just as an initial on-the-surface review, I had a hard time believing a line could change by 12-14 points from the end of one season to the start of the next, even with substantial personnel losses.
     From there went to Matchup review to see if it made sense.  Yes, overall for 2014, BC will be down from LY and UMass should improve.  But, for this specific matchup in week 1, the big mismatch I see is in the trenches.  Since he became a head coach Addazio has made it clear he wants his teams to play a physical brand of football and establish the running game.  Temple '11, 257 ypg rushing, Temple '12, 201 ypg rushing and BC '13, 212 ypg rushing.  BC rushed for only 93 ypg just one year before under their previous HC.  The one returning strength BC has is their interior O-line.  Three SR starters return at C, LG & RG.  And a Florida transfer could/should be plugged in at tackle.  I expect BC to pound the running game vs. UMass.  On defense UMass returns only 2 of 7 starters from their front 7 and is moving back to a 3-4 alignment.  UMass losses include the team's defensive MVP (a DT) and two more interior linemen in their regular rotation plus a starting DE.  Against decent running teams, UMass struggled to slow down the running game and with these graduation losses, I believe this will continue vs a team with BC's run heavy play calling.
Running out of time to go over UMass offense vs. BC defense....  but UMass does have a chance to be much improved on offense at some point in '14 as they learn the new offense.  Whipple said his offseason focus was to give his players some confidence as his predecessor's coaching style never built them up to have much of any confidence.  If I had to pick a score, I'd say around 35-14.

Best of luck to you this season Longhorn.  
TD
     




TD, Just wanted to say " Well Done " on your analysis of
this matchup and I hope others realize how important it
is to do this if they wish to be successful this season.
BC's strength is it's running game, and to have a running
game, you need a superior O Line.You compared this
strength to UMass weakness at D Line. This is where
we find our edge.
You also mentioned your assessment of your perception
of what the line should be.This is how bettors find value
in a matchup.
I hope those who wish to be successful this season use
this strategy to gain an edge that will cash more wagers

Thanks again, and Best of Luck to you this season

TD    
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #31

Thanks Wise,

     Appreciate the kind words.  Best of Luck to you as well this year.

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


Just bumped this Ohio U at Kent State Under 50 to 2U.

Also added several FCS games just now on 5dimes.  Yes, -120 and yes, lines are already jumping around even with them capping max bets.  This is what I have:
Old Dominion -22.5
Old Dominion -23.5
William & Mary +19
Northern Iowa +17
Iowa State +3.5
Jacksonville State +33.5
Middle Tennessee State -38
Cal POLY -3
Air Force -15.5
Air Force -16.5

TD

Thought I saw this elsewhere buried in a thread, but wanted to point out that last Thursday night's Cal POLY -3 play took a hit a couple nights later with 5 players being suspended including their leading rusher SR W-back Kristaan Ivory (1,113 yrds / 6.5 ypc).  Ivory also lead the team in receptions (33).   Also suspended are two more projected starters on offense; WR Cam Akins (8 for 68 yrds) and Jake Brito, a rFR slotback.  The two others suspended are both corners....  tough to find much info on 1 of 2, but did see that the other was competing for time at nickelback when they go to 5 DBs.

We'll see just how "plug & play" this rushing offense truly is with a few backups thrown into the fire.  Hopefully the 2 headed QB situation and four O-linemen with starting experience can carry the offense in week 1 vs. NMSU.

Just wanted everyone considering Cal POLY to be aware of this.  And BTW, this news doesn't make NMSU a good play suddenly.  They're still THAT bad IMO!

TD

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #33
Adding a small play, Cal +10.5 (0.5 units). I think Cal has a real chance to win this game outright.

.... Also looking into a small parlay with Cal ML, WKU ML, and probably another 2-3 straight plays I like.

TD
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #34
A couple updates, bumped each of the next two listed to 2.5 units:

Ohio U. at Kent State under 51 (previous bet under 50)  (2.5U)
LSU vs. Wisconsin under 50.5  (2.5U)
Mississippi State -9.5 (2U)
UMass -13 (1U)
Cal +10.5 (0.5U)

Adding a small play on:  Clemson vs. Georgia Under 57.5 (0.5U)


I also play alot of FCS vs. FBS games on the side.  Here's my lists of plays thus far.  Waiting on a couple totals to be released closer to gameday.

Eastern Illinois +35
Old Dominion -22.5
Old Dominion -23.5
William & Mary +19
Northern Iowa +17
Iowa State +3.5
Jacksonville State +33.5
Middle Tennessee State -38
Cal POLY -3
Air Force -15.5
Air Force -16.5
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #35
Any Ohioans know if Trayion Durham has practiced yet after a second offseason foot surgery?  From what I can find, he missed spring football with the second surgery and then as of 8/12 after fall practices had started, he was still not medically cleared to play.  Can't find much else for an update over the last week.  Kent State message boards aren't much help.
And on a related note, anyone know why the total went up since yesterday from 49 to 51.  Seems like an odd jump with Durham still out, presumeably, and the tragic news of Center Jason Bitsko passing away at such a young age.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #36
Clemson vs. Georgia under 57.5

Clemson D-line / front 7 will slow down the Georgia running game as their O-line is replacing three 3-year starters.

Not sold on Clemson QB Cole Stoudt.  I think it's only a matter of time before the highly rated true freshman gets a look at QB.  Possibly right after the first three games are over (includes at Georgia and at Florida State) so they don't risk hurting the young man's confidence.  Clemson also with two projected starters on the O-line suspended for this game.  And of course Clemson replacing some big #s from last year's skill players that have moved on.

The pace of last year's game slowed down in the second half of that game.  I think that's closer to what we'll see this season and then some; even further slowed down pace that is.

Slight concerns that lead me to a small unit play:

 1)  Hutson Mason did throw the ball well last year when he got his opportunity.... Georgia has good depth at WR with all the injuries last season.  Could pass early and often on this Clemson secondary.
2)  I expect storng defensive play from both teams.  Could lead to a short field for either offense.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 12805
Posted: #37
GL TD, I think BC covers as well and I prefer the under so far
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 3277
Posted: #38
Illinois -10 vs. ytown ..best play on board
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #39
Added:  North Texas / Texas Under 52.5. (0.5U)
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by knasty007:

Illinois -10 vs. ytown ..best play on board

Thanks knasty007,
     Will have to look into this game.

TD
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2004
Posts: 3733
Posted: #41
Nice thread TD, hope you kill em this year.


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2004
Posts: 4058
Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Added:  North Texas / Texas Under 52.5. (0.5U)

I like this one...wonder why it's going up?  Suppose I don't care...this is simply a bet against the Texas offense and a bet for the Texas defense at this point.

Probably wouldn't have noticed EIU/Minny if bookieassassin hadn't pointed it out...I'll be coat tailing that one (if my book ever posts a freakin' line).
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 3074
Posted: #43
TD,   That Illinois play may have some merit.  

GL,   Doc
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 3074
Posted: #44
TD,   That Illinois play may have some merit.  

GL,   Doc
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by ksuwins:


I like this one...wonder why it's going up?  Suppose I don't care...this is simply a bet against the Texas offense and a bet for the Texas defense at this point.

Probably wouldn't have noticed EIU/Minny if bookieassassin hadn't pointed it out...I'll be coat tailing that one (if my book ever posts a freakin' line).

ksuwins,
     Exactly, definitely a play against the Texas offense, along with some other reasons as well.  I've been double checking the donbest.com injury report the last couple days.  They list Texas OT Kennedy Estelle as dismissed.  That's not correct, just so everyone knows.  Plenty of Texas fans in here.  Can someone confirm regarding Estelle?  However, plenty of other missing pieces on Offense for UT in this game:  WRs:  Sanders - been gone since early August, Shipley  - does not appear to have returned to practice yet with the hamstring injury and is very questionable for the opener.  With this kind of injury that can linger, I would think they don't want to chance it vs. a non-conf team where they are heavy favorites and give him further rest.  Backup D. Johnson also out - suspended for just this game.  O-line - even with Estelle giving UT two returning starters, projected starter D. Harrison is also suspended this first game.

On the other side, North Texas strength for them is returning O-linemen as they must replace a three year starting QB and some other skill position players.  This plays right into the hands of a Texas D-line with some talent that should significantly slow down the NT offense.  I think both teams play calling will lean run first.  Lastly, coach Strong's teams at Louisville were an Under play, for the most part, throughout his tenure there (very heavy Under 2 of 4 seasons at Louisville).

And agree, no idea why this went up recently.

BOL this year.  

TD
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #46
Added:

Eastern Washington -4 (1st half) at -105. (0.5 units)

TD
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2014
Posts: 1050
Posted: #47
I'm with you on the EWU 1st half play.

For the full game It was -7 for -115 early this morning at 5Dimes. Now -7 for -120, or -7.5 for +100.

I like the Illinois game as well.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Added:

Eastern Washington -4 (1st half) at -105. (0.5 units)

TD

Well I over thought this game.  EWU first half 

EWU full game --- winner.  Congrats to those on this FG.


Also, nudged the NT / Texas Under to a full unit play.  Under 52 this time.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 34171
Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


Well I over thought this game.  EWU first half 

EWU full game --- winner.  Congrats to those on this FG.


Also, nudged the NT / Texas Under to a full unit play.  Under 52 this time.









TD. Plenty of opportunities lie ahead.Time to prepare for
       Thursday, Bud .

TD 
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 5298
Posted: #50
No Total from 5dimes on the William & Mary vs. Virginia Tech game is a real bummer!!!  That was more than likely going to be a big play for me.  Should be a low scoring game.
All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.