TD Week 2

I've been meaning to post since lines came out, but I'm very time poor these days.  Since I've been locking in games on & off since early summer, I decided not to post Week 1 plays.

My top 3 for week 2:

UTEP / NU Under

Charlotte / Maryland Under

Georgia Southern ATS

I locked in a worse number than the current line on the UTEP/NU total, so definitely would still take that.

I have a slightly better number on the Charlotte / Maryland total, but would still play this at the current total.  I think Charlotte is an "Under team" all season.  They should stay Under more often than not with their new HC's style of play.  Taking advantage early in the season before the books adjust is my approach here.

And I have quite a bit better number on Georgia Southern as I see it's crossed a key number, but this is still a play, maybe just less on units if you're getting in now.  I follow FCS football and in my opinion UAB's season opening cover vs. NC A&T was expected.  Won a small wager on UAB in fact......  NC A&T is considerably down from last year IMO and that's important because it gives a false sense of where UAB belongs for a power rating.  For the season I have UAB Under 4.5 wins and I think reality starts to set in this week for Coach Dilfer.  My power ratings do not have them favored in a game the rest of the season; and only South Florida and the last two games are close.  Perhaps my off season adjustments on UAB are too aggressive and too harsh compared to the market, but I would make Georgia Southern a 2 TD favorite.  When the season is over I think that is how the numbers will grade out.  It's early in the season, so they will still be playing hard I guess.  A few losses build up and I wonder how hard they will play for a new HC that is a little arrogant, may let on that he wants his own guys.

The two totals are my largest plays overall.

I have several other plays locked in.  If anybody wants those let me know.  Most I have a better line than currently available, but a few I do not (EMU, App State).

Hope everyone is doing well!  And GL to all in Week 2.  

Good luck this week pal. Love the plays. Like all three and going to play Charlotte under and GATA 

 Thanks for the post TD, and great to see you back again this year.

Would love to know what else you're on too, but only if you have time.

GL this season 

@TD21

 thx for the top 3 plays of the week you posted already. Can you post your other plays as well would be much appreciated with unit totals for each. been following you for a few years.

thx again

 Thanks for posting TD.

And good luck this season!

GL

Thanks TD. 

Utep wins 3-2 

so under 

@TD21

 TD21....BOL with your action this week buddy....indy

Thanks everyone!

........Had to go back and check the spreadsheet, see what the he!! I did to myself on Sunday and prior with a few GOY lines in play this week.

Here you go:

Week 1:

UTEP / Northwestern U37.5 (3U) & U38.5 (1u) -- would like to keep this around the original 3u play, so might play for a small middle on an in-game over for 0.75u or so.  As long as neither team scores on the 1st drive that would be the plan.

Charlotte / Maryland U52.5 (3u)

Georgia Southern -5.5 (1.5u) & -4 -112 (0.5u) -- (2u overall)

Ole Miss -6.5 (0.5u) GOY line actually took this before week 1.  Added -4.5 -115 on Sunday opener for another (0.25u)  -- (0.75u overall)

Connecticut +4.5 (0.75u)

Iowa / Iowa State U38.5 (0.4u) & U40.5 (0.3u)  dang book with the softer lines comes out after I lock in the 1st play a few times here.

Notre Dame -6.5  (0.7u)  couldn't pass this up, figured it would be a small middle opportunity.  Don't hate the play either, but definitely a key number play at the time.  Thought this would go up.

Eastern Michigan +20 (0.6u)

Appalachian State +15.5 (0.4u) & +17 (0.2u) -- (0.6u overall)  About the only one I really missed on for line value.  Good with that in this spot for both teams.

Kansas -2 (0.5u)  GOY line from just prior to week 1.  Hope the QB is healthy after resting last Friday night.  Oversight on my part.  The play was on matchup of secondary that loses basically everyone vs. the top returning production offense percentage wise.

Miami University -6.5  (0.5u)  Yes, the one in Ohio.  

Jacksonville State +13.5 -112  (0.5u)

Georgia Southern / UAB Under 59  (0.4u)  would play UAB team total Under 26 as well when available.

Sam Houston State +15 (0.4u)

Troy +16.5  (0.4u)

Texas / Alabama Under 57.5 -113  (0.4u)

Vanderbilt +13.5 -112 (0.3u)

Texas +7 -115  GOY line from 7/12/23..... eek, my recollection was all other books had moved to 6.5 at the time, so I took this.  Can't say I recommend it now, but its on the log, so listing everything here.  We'll see how it goes.  Should be a decent game.  Hopefully Ewers has developed his downfield accuracy some this offseason.  That would be huge for Texas futures.  Wouldn't shock me either if Alabama 'plays mad' and takes care of business.  Looking forward to watching this game.

That should say Week 2 in the last post.

I either need to get more sleep or tell people that my season starts in Week minus 1 instead of Week 0.  

GL this  season @TD21

21 

Week 2:

UTEP / Northwestern U37.5 (3u) & U38.5 (1u) 

Charlotte / Maryland U52.5 (3u)

Georgia Southern -5.5 (1.5u) & -4 -112 (0.5u) -- (2u overall)

Ole Miss -6.5 (0.5u) GOY line & -4.5 -115 (0.25u)  -- (0.75u overall)

Connecticut +4.5 (0.75u)

Iowa / Iowa State U38.5 (0.4u) & U40.5 (0.3u)  

Notre Dame -6.5  (0.7u)  

Eastern Michigan +20 (0.6u)

Appalachian State +15.5 (0.4u) & +17 (0.2u) -- (0.6u overall)  

Kansas -2 (0.5u)  

Miami University -6.5  (0.5u)

Jacksonville State +13.5 -112  (0.5u)

Georgia Southern / UAB Under 59  (0.4u)  

Sam Houston State +15 (0.4u)

Troy +16.5  (0.4u)

Texas / Alabama Under 57.5 -113  (0.4u)

Vanderbilt +13.5 -112 (0.3u)

Added:  Southern Miss +31.5 -120  (0.25u)

Texas +7 -115  (0.2u)  GOY line

Great looking selections for week 2.  

god luck

@TD21

@TD21

 Thanks for sharing TD! Great to see ya here buddy

Friday FCS degen small action: 

Stony Brook +25.5  (0.15u)

Small buy-back/middle attempt on Illinois +4 -112  (0.1u)

Indiana State QB Cade Chambers is still out.  I wanted to consider an in-game play on Indiana State if IU gets up a few scores quickly, but now I can't as the backup QBs are a big step down for the Sycamores.

Instead I think the next best approach is in-game Unders as Indiana State is not going to score much.  And I can't see IU running up the score against Coach Mallory who's dad was HC at Indiana years back.  Tom Allen likes the Mallory's.  Can't see him pushing it late in the game with a comfortable lead.

So far played U49.5 LIVE right after that 1st TD for IU.  Will be watching & posting for a few more minutes, then heading out to the local HS game.    Have a good Friday night everyone!

Indiana / Indiana State Under 55.5  (0.2u)  LIVE  (DK)

You know what to do.....

IU / Indiana State U56.5 -120 LIVE  (0.2u)

BONUS - favorite Coach Prime quote of the offseason.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6B5TInUkFhY

Good Stuff with total tonight...