…. BOL numbers up finally, shoulda checked that before Covers this morning.
establishing a position now with JMU +6 (0.4u), might be the best we can get pregame. Was hoping for 7, but not happening I’d say. Would be surprised if it moves that way unless people are betting on the name / 10-year history.
Just tryin to have fun on some FCS .. any sense in pairing up that JMU +5.5 line or ML with the under 47.5 for a parlay or does that not quite correlate? .. usually take dog/under but seems like the ole Bizon Strangler play happens when NDSU is up a score and run it out grabbing one more not much back/forth .. maybe see them play a little faster in a tighter game you think or combo of NDSU/JMU just too much clock burnin going on to be thinking over? .. its fun money fun bet btw ..
thx!
@Bridge1
I hope that's sarcasm in Post #252, .... I'm a little slow tonight. Long day. 
Smartest thing to do is probably wait and see if Christian Watson is back and then play in-game accordingly (how effective he would be with a hamstring issue if he does play is another question). If he's out again, then the NDSU passing game will not be very effective and trying primarily to pound the running game against JMU may get some points, but they'll hold their own on run D if NDSU is one dimensional. Solid TE out too for NDSU. I think the JMU passing game gives them a chance to cover, maybe win SU. But Watson is a difference maker if he's fully healthy. 
@TD21
Word up brother .. oh yeah big time sarcasm .. would imagine the NDSU home playoff brand is about as big a fan fav as that Army / Navy total under was .. Yeah if I was into NFL i'd def want my team lookin at that guy saw him hits those afterburners in the spring a few times and whoah nellie sonic boom .. good call will wait and see whats up .. 
Week 16:
D3 championship: North Central IL vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor Under 63.5 -110 (0.3u)
Rain really never showed up, a little bit late in the game..... should have tried to middle, this was bet down to 48.5, pretty impressive. Then went way over!!
D2 championship (Saturday night in McKinney, TX): Ferris State -2 -110 (0.3u)
Added: Ferris State / Valdosta State Over 72.5 (0.15u)
FCS Semi-Finals:
South Dakota State at Montana State Under 47.5 -110 (0.75u)
James Madison at North Dakota State Under 47.5 -110 (0.4u)
James Madison +6 (0.4u)
In-Game: NDSU / James Madison Under 48 (0.2u)
@TD21
Love the under here. UT martin, SDSU, and Sam Houston were averaging 120 ppg prior to meeting the Bobcats. Cats allowed only 42 combined to those three in the playoffs. SDSU had -2 yards rushing in the second half and zero points this past weekend. Cats defense is absolutely the real deal.
Small action play for Christmas.... first number locked in yesterday, just put a little more on it today at -6. GLTA and Merry Christmas!
Bowl Games / Playoffs:
Notre Dame -2.5 (0.4u) & -2 (0.6u) — (1u overall)
Cincinnati / Alabama Under 58.5 (0.75u)
Virginia -2 (0.25u)
Added: Georgia State -5.5 -105 & -6 -105 (0.15u)
@Cooler999
Probably ok to still take the points, but keep in mind I went smaller on the side than the total and it's also some protection for my Futures (only team in the Semis that doesn't win me any $ for a title is Montana State of course - really needed SDSU to just advance for hedging as I had them at +2000). I'm seeing +8 at FD and DK if you're in a state that has approved sports betting.
NDSU WR Christian Watson may be back for the title game and could be a difference maker if truly healthy. But, elsewhere head to head the Montana State front 7 should match up reasonably well with NDSU's running game after what they did vs. SDSU in the 2nd half with shutting down the run.
For full season PR#s, I make the line 9.5, but NDSU's last two games for ATS margin are +1.0 & -1.7, so they (and their last two opponents) are currently playing very close to those PR#s. Montana State's last two weeks have graded out at +16.9 & +22.5 for ATS margin, so they are really peaking right now. Question is, can they keep it up with the time off.
NDSU will be the highest rated team that Montana State has faced all season, but against their top 6 opponents (ranked #53 thru #102 for all FBS & FCS teams), they grade out at 4-2 ATS (2-0 in the playoffs) with an average score of 22.5 to 18.5 and average ATS margin of +5.3 ...... this figure is a result of the big playoff wins - worse in regular season (2-2 ATS record and ATS margin of -1.9 with the other QB and average score was only 15.5 to 18.8, so higher scoring games after the QB change).
NDSU vs. their top 7 opponents (ranked #53 thru #97) are 3-4 ATS, but +1.02 for ATS margin.
@Cooler999
Short version is it should come down to whether or not Montana State can continue to peak with the improved play. If you ( / any bettor) thinks they can continue to peak, then I think you take them plus over a touchdown. Keep an eye on the in-game Under opportunities as well; both teams will play similar with a lead.
And I forgot, average score in those 7 NDSU games vs. their top competition was 29.4 to 17.4.
Bowl Games / Playoffs:
Notre Dame -2.5 (0.4u) & -2 (0.6u) — (1u overall)
Cincinnati / Alabama Under 58.5 (0.75u)
Virginia -2 (0.25u)
Mississippi State -9.5 -110 (0.25u)
Georgia State -5.5 -105 & -6 -105 (0.15u)
Air Force +1.5 (0.15u)
Added: Oklahoma -6.5 -115 (0.15u)
Added Teaser: Oklahoma +0.5, Utah +12, Cinci +21 (0.1u to win 0.13u)
and sittin' on a small in-game Minn-6.5 ticket FWIW
Bowl Games / Playoffs:
Notre Dame -2.5 (0.4u) & -2 (0.6u) — (1u overall)
Cincinnati / Alabama Under 58.5 (0.75u)
Virginia -2 (0.25u) - Canceled
Mississippi State -9.5 -110 (0.25u)
Added: Cincinnati Team Total Under 22.5 -120 (0.2u)
Georgia State -5.5 -105 & -6 -105 (0.15u)
Air Force +1.5 (0.15u)
Oklahoma -6.5 -115 (0.15u)
Teaser: Oklahoma +0.5, Utah +12, Cinci +21 (0.1u to win 0.13u)
Bowl Games / Playoffs:
Notre Dame -2.5 (0.4u) & -2 (0.6u) — (1u overall)
Cincinnati / Alabama Under 58.5 (0.75u) & bumped Under 58.5 in-game (0.25u) -- (1u overall)
Virginia -2 (0.25u) - Canceled
Mississippi State -9.5 -110 (0.25u)
Cincinnati Team Total Under 22.5 -120 (0.2u)
Georgia State -5.5 -105 & -6 -105 (0.15u)
Air Force +1.5 (0.15u)
Oklahoma -6.5 -115 (0.15u)
Teaser: Oklahoma +0.5, Utah +12, Cinci +21 (0.1u to win 0.13u)
Added some small action for tomorrow.....
Bowl Games / Playoffs:
Notre Dame -2.5 (0.4u) & -2 (0.6u) — (1u overall)
Cincinnati / Alabama Under 58.5 (1u overall)
Virginia -2 (0.25u) - Canceled
Mississippi State -9.5 -110 (0.25u)
Cincinnati Team Total Under 22.5 -120 (0.2u)
Georgia State -5.5 -105 & -6 -105 (0.15u)
Air Force +1.5 (0.15u)
Oklahoma -6.5 -115 (0.15u)
Added: Arkansas -2.5 -110 (0.1u)
Added: Iowa +3 -110 (0.1u)
Teaser: Oklahoma +0.5, Utah +12, Cinci +21 (Pushed w/ Cinci, so now 0.1u to win >>>> ?)
Based on what I saw from Bama today with Metchie out and Williams as more of a possession WR, taking this now, but will have to monitor in-game for the championship. Lines are tight.
Bowl Games / Playoffs:
Notre Dame -2.5 (0.4u) & -2 (0.6u) — (1u overall)
Cincinnati / Alabama Under 58.5 (1u overall)
Virginia -2 (0.25u) - Canceled
Mississippi State -9.5 -110 (0.25u)
Added: Alabama / Georgia Under 53 -112 (0.25u)
Cincinnati Team Total Under 22.5 -120 (0.2u)
Georgia State -5.5 -105 & -6 -105 (0.15u)
Air Force +1.5 (0.15u)
Oklahoma -6.5 -115 (0.15u)
Added: Arkansas -2.5 -110 (0.1u)
Added: Iowa +3 -110 (0.1u)
Teaser: Oklahoma +0.5, Utah +12, Cinci +21 (Pushed w/ Cinci, so now 0.1u to win
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