Great stuff dude yeah hope I don't think im an FCS in game maestro all of a sudden and ship it back to the books today lol ..
Yeah tough to keep track of the rosters in the first place and value of the player just seems soooo team/opponent specific and lotta variance in how backups perform, etc .. crappy one week .. good next week .. back to crappy when I bet on them lol .. Im actually keeping track of FBS rosters this year using PFF first year doing that .. download each week every player by position group and have a summary page showing by game what % of the units' snaps played and see whats changing over time and drill into the player data see whose playing w the player stats / PFF grades for a game .. big irky jerky file .. wouldn't rely on the grades either but can see what they think was good / bad vs which opponents .. anyway jury still out on whether its making me any better but saves a ton of time when I want some info whose been playing and how many snaps, how healthy the units look, etc .... PFF does have FCS player by game data too, think its everyone but can't say for sure .. unfortunately I gotta cut FCS data out to save space but def a tool I woulda wanted in the spring w that info so scarce and not many eyes on what's going on .. anyway long winded reply on the substitute player question .. first tool I'd need: who the hell played lol ..
Good luck today brother!
0
@TD21
Great stuff dude yeah hope I don't think im an FCS in game maestro all of a sudden and ship it back to the books today lol ..
Yeah tough to keep track of the rosters in the first place and value of the player just seems soooo team/opponent specific and lotta variance in how backups perform, etc .. crappy one week .. good next week .. back to crappy when I bet on them lol .. Im actually keeping track of FBS rosters this year using PFF first year doing that .. download each week every player by position group and have a summary page showing by game what % of the units' snaps played and see whats changing over time and drill into the player data see whose playing w the player stats / PFF grades for a game .. big irky jerky file .. wouldn't rely on the grades either but can see what they think was good / bad vs which opponents .. anyway jury still out on whether its making me any better but saves a ton of time when I want some info whose been playing and how many snaps, how healthy the units look, etc .... PFF does have FCS player by game data too, think its everyone but can't say for sure .. unfortunately I gotta cut FCS data out to save space but def a tool I woulda wanted in the spring w that info so scarce and not many eyes on what's going on .. anyway long winded reply on the substitute player question .. first tool I'd need: who the hell played lol ..
It's a few posts back, but here is what I took early in the week,.... plus this morning's small hedge.
FCS Quarterfinals:
NDSU -21.5 (1.5u) & ETSU +26 (0.2u)
SDSU -6.5 (1u)
Montana State / Sam Houston State Under 50 (0.5u)
Sam Houston State -6 -105 (0.4u)
Montana State's starting QB left the team via transfer portal about 3-4 days before their 1st playoff game (seriously, who does that, but maybe I'm just old school in terms of commitment to a team). They were fortunate to get Tennessee-Martin from the OVC in the 1st round. Tennessee-Martin beat a heavily favored Missouri State from the nation's best conference (MVFC). Missouri State had like 6 turnovers I believe and it lead to a 1 point loss. So, Montana State rallied around the backup QB and used their running game and defense to win their first game without their QB vs. an easier opponent in Tennessee-Martin. Montana State's HC is the former NDSU and Wyoming OC (Under HC Bohl at Wyoming and NDSU when they won their first couple national titles). So, his blue print is running game on offense, play tough defense, control time of possession. That worked well against Tennessee Martin. Sam Houston is talented but plays in an average conference. They're good on run D and should match up there with Montana State. SHSU doesn't mind shootouts (see last week) but can also play uglier low scoring games. Most of their recent playoff games including the spring have been close, one score games. Montana State late in the regular season wasn't scoring as much as they did earlier in the season and that was with the starting QB. My man BA has taught us all (and reminded me earlier this year in the Kansas State vs. Nevada game) that team's typically rally around the backup QB in the first game without the starter, but that's not typically sustained for several weeks. So, that angle is what I was seeing here in taking SHSU -6 -105. I can't see Montana State scoring more than 14 to 17 points, possibly less. SHSU likely mid 20s. 27-17, 24-14, something like that is what I'm expecting. Line move to SHSU makes it tougher to bet at -7 / -7.5. Total has also moved slightly in my favor, but still like the Under. Both are smaller plays than the first two games, but this game has more to discuss and someone else in another thread had asked about this game, so here you go. Good luck today!
1
@green33
It's a few posts back, but here is what I took early in the week,.... plus this morning's small hedge.
FCS Quarterfinals:
NDSU -21.5 (1.5u) & ETSU +26 (0.2u)
SDSU -6.5 (1u)
Montana State / Sam Houston State Under 50 (0.5u)
Sam Houston State -6 -105 (0.4u)
Montana State's starting QB left the team via transfer portal about 3-4 days before their 1st playoff game (seriously, who does that, but maybe I'm just old school in terms of commitment to a team). They were fortunate to get Tennessee-Martin from the OVC in the 1st round. Tennessee-Martin beat a heavily favored Missouri State from the nation's best conference (MVFC). Missouri State had like 6 turnovers I believe and it lead to a 1 point loss. So, Montana State rallied around the backup QB and used their running game and defense to win their first game without their QB vs. an easier opponent in Tennessee-Martin. Montana State's HC is the former NDSU and Wyoming OC (Under HC Bohl at Wyoming and NDSU when they won their first couple national titles). So, his blue print is running game on offense, play tough defense, control time of possession. That worked well against Tennessee Martin. Sam Houston is talented but plays in an average conference. They're good on run D and should match up there with Montana State. SHSU doesn't mind shootouts (see last week) but can also play uglier low scoring games. Most of their recent playoff games including the spring have been close, one score games. Montana State late in the regular season wasn't scoring as much as they did earlier in the season and that was with the starting QB. My man BA has taught us all (and reminded me earlier this year in the Kansas State vs. Nevada game) that team's typically rally around the backup QB in the first game without the starter, but that's not typically sustained for several weeks. So, that angle is what I was seeing here in taking SHSU -6 -105. I can't see Montana State scoring more than 14 to 17 points, possibly less. SHSU likely mid 20s. 27-17, 24-14, something like that is what I'm expecting. Line move to SHSU makes it tougher to bet at -7 / -7.5. Total has also moved slightly in my favor, but still like the Under. Both are smaller plays than the first two games, but this game has more to discuss and someone else in another thread had asked about this game, so here you go. Good luck today!
Welp .. NDSU/ETSU H2 UNDER 23.5 was the best deal out there went w it .. better than the 21's that are floatin around .. hope were on the same side .. good luck!
0
Welp .. NDSU/ETSU H2 UNDER 23.5 was the best deal out there went w it .. better than the 21's that are floatin around .. hope were on the same side .. good luck!
We are. I missed it earlier in-game when it was in the mid 40s. And skipped 37.5 after they didn't get the 2 point conversion because of the heavy juice @ -125. Equivalent to 24.5 now, so that extra 1 point at a key number would have been nice.
I held off on the 2nd half line, but will be monitoring it closely for in-game in the 3rd qtr if/when they score again and widen the gap.
0
@Bridge1
We are. I missed it earlier in-game when it was in the mid 40s. And skipped 37.5 after they didn't get the 2 point conversion because of the heavy juice @ -125. Equivalent to 24.5 now, so that extra 1 point at a key number would have been nice.
I held off on the 2nd half line, but will be monitoring it closely for in-game in the 3rd qtr if/when they score again and widen the gap.
Yeah I never feel confident enough to get buy a juiced out number .. could be worth it but I won't know / won't play it .. -115 is the limit and would only ever take that on in game and TT's .. just too easy to throw money away gambling lol ..
0
Yeah I never feel confident enough to get buy a juiced out number .. could be worth it but I won't know / won't play it .. -115 is the limit and would only ever take that on in game and TT's .. just too easy to throw money away gambling lol ..
Never a doubt, right Bridge!?, ...... its a good thing I wasn't even watching then, NDSU games like that typically are a sweat. My wife pulled a fast one and asked if I could run the boys to a birthday party. I was initially pissed at the lack of communication (as in, I'd have just taken the 2nd half Under 23.5 if I'd have known the plans ).
Never did get on the in-game Under. Did add ETSU +24.5 -200ish when NDSU was in the redzone on offense before that final touchdown, so tacked on a little more to the successful middle there.
I only caught a couple plays from the SDSU / Villanova game; including the long TD pass with the guy wide open to go up 21-14. The drive before that I was monitoring the gamecast, looked like a couple separate Pass Interference penalties. The SDSU pass D appears to be struggling thus far. Perhaps that gauntlet schedule and long travel is catching up with them. Still really like their running game on offense if they can score early 2nd half and not remain down & have to play from behind. Just checked, Villanova ball first, ughhh, this one is going to be an uphill battle.
0
@Bridge1
Never a doubt, right Bridge!?, ...... its a good thing I wasn't even watching then, NDSU games like that typically are a sweat. My wife pulled a fast one and asked if I could run the boys to a birthday party. I was initially pissed at the lack of communication (as in, I'd have just taken the 2nd half Under 23.5 if I'd have known the plans ).
Never did get on the in-game Under. Did add ETSU +24.5 -200ish when NDSU was in the redzone on offense before that final touchdown, so tacked on a little more to the successful middle there.
I only caught a couple plays from the SDSU / Villanova game; including the long TD pass with the guy wide open to go up 21-14. The drive before that I was monitoring the gamecast, looked like a couple separate Pass Interference penalties. The SDSU pass D appears to be struggling thus far. Perhaps that gauntlet schedule and long travel is catching up with them. Still really like their running game on offense if they can score early 2nd half and not remain down & have to play from behind. Just checked, Villanova ball first, ughhh, this one is going to be an uphill battle.
Missed the start of the last FCS game. Not a good start for SHSU I see. I'm actually ok with them losing SU for Futures. If they win & don't cover would be annoying if they come back. Futures on NDSU, SDSU, & JMU still alive and well! SHSU only real threat to my Futures, nothing on them.
Good day so far, lean on Navy +7.5 shoulda pulled the string. Oh well.
Might have to take an in-game Under soon here with HC Vigen grinding clock 2nd half I have to believe.
0
Missed the start of the last FCS game. Not a good start for SHSU I see. I'm actually ok with them losing SU for Futures. If they win & don't cover would be annoying if they come back. Futures on NDSU, SDSU, & JMU still alive and well! SHSU only real threat to my Futures, nothing on them.
Good day so far, lean on Navy +7.5 shoulda pulled the string. Oh well.
Might have to take an in-game Under soon here with HC Vigen grinding clock 2nd half I have to believe.
And I'm in a similar position for the pre-game Total play, I have U50 & -6. Side will lose 0.44u. Original total play is 0.5u, basically doubled down with the in-game at 0.4u. Looking forward to seeing how HC Vigen plays this 2nd half with the big lead. The scoring should really slow down for MSU, the question becomes how much can SHSU press and stay in the game, if they can then original Total play very well could be a problem as well. I'm really an MSU fan at this point and just need to take the L on the original side play.
0
@Cooler999
And I'm in a similar position for the pre-game Total play, I have U50 & -6. Side will lose 0.44u. Original total play is 0.5u, basically doubled down with the in-game at 0.4u. Looking forward to seeing how HC Vigen plays this 2nd half with the big lead. The scoring should really slow down for MSU, the question becomes how much can SHSU press and stay in the game, if they can then original Total play very well could be a problem as well. I'm really an MSU fan at this point and just need to take the L on the original side play.
D3 championship (Friday night in Canton, OH): North Central IL vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor Under 63.5 -110 (0.3u) *sorry, a few hours late on posting this one with basketball tonight, someone else had the same idea apparently.... currently U59.5 -125. FWIW on this one.
D2 championship (Saturday night in McKinney, TX): Ferris State -2 -110 (0.3u)
**and they might score 100 combined.
FCS Semi-Finals:
South Dakota State at Montana State Under 47.5 -110 (0.75u)
James Madison at North Dakota State Under 47.5 -110 (0.4u)
waiting on sides for FCS, a small hedge is in order on the one for sure with Futures still in play on 3 teams.
0
Week 16:
D3 championship (Friday night in Canton, OH): North Central IL vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor Under 63.5 -110 (0.3u) *sorry, a few hours late on posting this one with basketball tonight, someone else had the same idea apparently.... currently U59.5 -125. FWIW on this one.
D2 championship (Saturday night in McKinney, TX): Ferris State -2 -110 (0.3u)
**and they might score 100 combined.
FCS Semi-Finals:
South Dakota State at Montana State Under 47.5 -110 (0.75u)
James Madison at North Dakota State Under 47.5 -110 (0.4u)
waiting on sides for FCS, a small hedge is in order on the one for sure with Futures still in play on 3 teams.
Yeah I like both unders and possibly jmu but need to do more research , NDS might grind out a cover … hard place to play for sure … but jmu has the eve tree qb for sure
0
@TD21
Yeah I like both unders and possibly jmu but need to do more research , NDS might grind out a cover … hard place to play for sure … but jmu has the eve tree qb for sure
Lean JMU as well; thought it might be closer to 7. Will see if the line moves at all, may take it anyway pre-game. If that doesn’t pan out, in-game should be offered from some books.
0
@green33
Lean JMU as well; thought it might be closer to 7. Will see if the line moves at all, may take it anyway pre-game. If that doesn’t pan out, in-game should be offered from some books.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
).
Hot Forum Topics
