Teams to bet on / teams to fade or avoid......

Always like keeping eye on the MAC especially on Tuesday night MACtion the lines sometimes aren't as sharp on those midweek games. Picked up Ohio to win the MAC at +300 

Love it BA great stuff! ... i'm testing a new capping strategy out this year looking at teams that moved the MoV needle not really looking at the relative strength / SoS as much and pick the spots from there... 

Anyway, alot of similarities at the top of my watch list UCLA, SMU there for sure.. popularity and hype machines have probably factored out Nebraskas and Michigans from my hit list unless we catch them in those motivation spots but otherwise puttin a no buy sign on the mega trendys at least until they start draining a few wallets first.. 

Thinking UVA is going to have a tough time keeping their foot on the gas petal this year unless Bryce is (somehow) even more dynamic which would probably mean he's heisman status ... but if losses on O make him less dynamic and there's a healthy dip in his numbers could be an ATS horror show especially if they can rock pittsburgh out of the gate..

Big 12 so frustrating with one team WV over 60% ATS on the season LY.. (barely) and think the same in 2017 Iowa St was the only >60% winner...  linesmakers playing us like a tune with everyone passing the ball all over the place playing no defense .. need a team thats got some new dynamite on O and plays some D.. i like Dalton at TCU could get interesting if he can be a spark ... watching him early...  Maybe play T-Tech a fun one to pick play/fade spots on... they really tailed off last year but Bowman and 5 OL's returning im sure there's a couple WR's in the cupboard to throw at and rest of the O should have some gaps to run through plus a little better D could make for some monster wins this year especially against a bad D... I think we have a fun show vs UA maybe fade there and pick em back up when the LB's and DL's aren't as good say Okla St for instance.. 

I got NC St and Mid T on the season long money to burn list .. Phil giving the fans hope in the mag when there staring at a cliff.. def worth the time to find the weird corner of the internet with the link to their early FCS games and those D's better be pitching shutout football because the O will not be keeping them above the waterline this year... def like to see the ML on 20 point ECU dog week 1 .. WOOF. 

FIU will be looking for some fadeaway spots they realllly got away with such a weak schedule last year and quite a few better in CUSA this year, including them, but their SU/ATS record a definite misnomer with everyone else kinda under performing last year.... Will be checking what the bookies are giving WKU's 16 returning starters vs FIU's 16 returning starters in week 2... my guess is toooo many... 

Too many hyped up names in the PAC to not check in on Stanford early on we'll see what there is to like with those D-Backs and LB's vs NU and since nobody will be paying much attention see if it looks like Shaw can pull off another LA stunner right after USC's monster pass game Smokes fresno and everyone's sayin helton you a genius man Trojans are back ba-byyyy!! 

Good luck this year bro..

Hey this is a great post.  I agree on so much here.  

Strongly Agree:

Baylor and totally agree with the analysis.  MR is a great coach, and I like the potential to do real well this season.  

Air Force.  I typically stay away from Academy games, but I really like their potential this season.  

Strongly disagree:

ND (Disclosure: I am a domer) A lot of offensive production returns, and the WR unit only got faster.  Defensively, the DL should be VERY VERY good, and the safety play will stand out.  They need to find a couple LBs to man the middle, but they have the depth at the position to utilize a strong rotation and play the best on any given Saturday.  

I think GA Southern might take a step back this season.  They have to rework the OL, which is a big deal in that system.  Had some success with them last season, but might layoff and wait 

I think WKU might have some value this year.  Brohm's OC from the golden era is back as head coach, and the team returns a lot of talent.  They underperformed the past few seasons, but recruited very well.  I like them as a dark horse.  

I also think Texas Tech might be a team to keep an eye on.  Great QB play, that coach Wells will know how to exploit.  

Solid stuff bro ...BOL TY !!!

Also think we find a number of good spots to play Hawaii this year.. I never really noticed they get an extra game on their schedule but 13 games again like LY I'm assuming all 13 count in the RSW someone can correct me if that's not the case... 

So 5.5 RSW is 2.5 lower than actual W's LY... a couple tougher names on the schedule / opening 3 Pac-12'ers but 2 at home ... I have Boise and Fres significantly weaker and rest of the conference in the ball park in terms of strength.. SDSU should be better too but idk if significantly better yet and AF should be a little better but get both of them home... So seeing the real potential risers in the MW as home games plus Fresno homer and Boise roadie off a bye .... probably the most important thing is there's no cross planet Army game right smack in the middle of an 11 week stretch to open the season which must have made that extra brutal LY, plus they got some realllly tough defenses toward the end of that long stretch to smack them around: Wyoming, BYU, Fres, Utah St... This year the bye comes in the middle not 3rd to last week and the smacking around for them looks a little more front loaded.. 

Also note returning production in Phil's Mag for this year at #4 vs #127 in '18 going from 9 ret starters to 18 this year, lotta seniors..  I could see a fresh team playing LY's schedule with top of the MW so brutal it's kinda no wonder they tailed off... still they managed a MoV increase of almost a TD from '17.... really need a huge jump on D if they're going to be a contend in the MW-W but drawing SDSU and Fres at home is a much better deal than LY.... as far as winning the conference it'll be a pretty tall order to beat SDSU then play Army then win a conf champ game at the tail end of a 9 game stretch.. (33-1)... but getting there not out of the question at all... 

I think it's also very easy to write this team off as a wishy/washy hit and miss team when they came on so strong last year with ~50points per game first 3 weeks and then (see above) reality caught up with them... 2018's Hawaii is in a fairly exclusive club of teams to hit <40% ATS and gain a ~TD in the MoV department so not a surprise folks have a realllly bad taste left over from these guys... I'll add -9 in TO's LY plus read QB was playing with a pretty bad MCL strain and heart of the D was carved out when Tavai went OFY mid season.. couple guys on D look promising to fill that role in Pavihi at LB and Padello on the DL in '19 but either way Warriors probably due for some better luck this year.. 

I think they take the 5.5 RSW's and a shot at the division is entirely possible ... ATS-wise we get alot more cover early on with the tougher Pac-12 teams and gives us time to evaluate especially their D.... total opposite of last year when they were the only game on TV and everyone seeing McDonald light it up the first 3 games and bet some wallets got drained in pretty short order ... you see the improvement on D in the early goings that Phil is calling for and we could be in for a fun ride playing these guys in the conference... 

Good luck!

If you don't like Notre Dame, this could be your year.................schedule.

Some how managed to play SEVEN TEAM that have an off date before they play ND! 5 of those are at home, but still, that is a F'd schedule.....

That's kind of worse than someone saying they will win a 100 games in a row!

BA - Awesome  information. Will come in useful.