TEMPLE @ PENN STATE - U R out of UR mind if U think Penn State is losing to Temple 2 years in a row

2016 Record: 14-5-1

The Pick:

Penn State -8.5 over Temple

The reasons:

1. 1941

That's the last time Penn State lost to Temple...before last year.

That means you get a huge revenge spot and you get it at home.

You think all those alumni eyes are going to watch Penn State lose to Temple twice in two years? Absolutely not.

You are playing the tried and true revenge angle and the program history/culture angle of which Penn State has a very storied one and Temple has...virtually nothing to speak of in this area. Except maybe last year's season which is long gone.

Penn State is 39-4-1 vs. Temple all time. Temple vs. Penn State is like Navy vs. Notre Dame. They caught them sleeping ONCE in decades. It's not happening again folks.

Even better, Penn State lost to Pitt last week. Back-to-Back Loses to in-state rivals and now in a home game for Penn State? It's not happening.

All we have to worry about is the line. I have reasons to alleviate all that worry.

2. Temple's defense

What won Temple the game last year 27-10? Their stout D.

Well folks Temple lost NINE STARTERS off their defense from a year ago and now, the very game that sparked an all-time great season in week 1 a year ago, is IN Penn State without the defense that made Temple so special. Worse, the NFL talent that was the leader of that defense that terrorized Penn State that day with TEN sacks is gone too: Tyler Matakavic.

3. Penn State's offense

Such significant losses come at the worst possible time for Temple in this spot because now Penn State, a team that was more about ground and pound and a conservative pass game, runs a up-tempo spread offense. Has it worked? Yes, to the tune 36 pts and almost 400 yards a game this year.

And Temple's weakness? Defending the run. They gave up an unconscionable 329 rushing yards to Army in week 1 this year! Wow.

And that bodes poorly for Temple since Saquon Barkley, Penn State's RB, has SIX TD's in two games this year. He doesn't rack up a ton of yards but he puts the ball in the end zone and with a spread like this, that is what we care about.

I love the dynamic Trace McSorley at QB as well instead of the flat-footed and predictable Hackenberg of last year in this spot as well.

4. Jahad Thomas

Again, this is another centerpiece of Temple's offense and was responsible for a large part of the success of last year. Also, Penn State is poor against the run this year and has injuries on their D-Line.

That being said, he hasn't practiced since Tuesday after leaving with an undisclosed hand injury. Matt Rhule said he HOPES he can play and will travel with the team.

Having said that, as bad as Penn State is against the run, they will make it a focal point to limit Thomas given they were atrocious defending the run last week against Pitt.

If Thomas doesn't play, it is a BIG plus for Penn State and currently isn't in the line. I'd put this line at -10 if he didn't play. Anyhow, it's a coin flip that is in our favor. If he does play, I would not back off this play either. It's simply a big bonus if he doesn't.

5. James Franklin's Hot Seat

We always like to see a coach coming into a game on a hot seat. That angle works as the coach typically drives the team into the ground during practice that week and they respond on the field to avoid another week's worth of as$-kicking.

Well if Franklin loses this game, he will have lost to 2 in-state rivals, lost back to back years to Temple and guess what game is up next: automatic loss @ Michigan leaving him at 1-3 I a lost season.

It is absolutely vital this team head into that game at 2-1 and leave no doubt while doing it or the Franklin hot seat will start to scorch.

6. Joe Paterno

If all of the above didn't convince you, Penn State will be honoring Paterno with the 50th anniversary of his first game tomorrow.

Does it matter what we think about Paterno? No. It does matter what the fans of that team think and we know the overwhelming majority support him. Which brings a vibrant atmosphere to the crowd and that is fed on by the team. We don't make bets with angles like this, but they are added bonuses.

7. Penn State off a loss and Temple off a nothing win

The table is set perfectly with the above bullet. That is exactly what you want coming into a game like this, especially with Temple getting a deceptive shut-out at home against a nothing team like Stony Brook which shaves points off this spread.

7 reasons, for you to use in total or for you to pick and choose to your liking, should be enough to convince you this spread can and will be covered.

I said anything under PSU -10 is a play for me and I got what I wanted. Is there a premium? Yes. Is this a public favorite? Yes. Does that mean we will lose? Absolutely not. Those of you backing Temple have to realize you cannot win and can only cover. And 8.5 becomes very, very thin in that spot and by my reasoning above, will not be sufficient.