I figure I know more about Cal than anyone on this board... I go to a lot of practices and a couple of my best friends are on the team.
I refuse to bet on Cal out of principle, as I want to avoid being biased, but I really think that this could be a good bet. I flew to Knoxville for the game last year, and the game was not as close as 35-18 (people forget we only lost by 17) but it was also not as bad as people described.
It was sort of a 'perfect storm'... the stadium was NUTS (way louder than Autzen or the Colosseum) and I don't think that the players were prepared. The brand new offense just didn't work with Nate at QB, and it was also literally Nate's first real college game. (playing 3 quarters against sac state doesn't count) Plus, neither team really did anything except Meachem caught a couple of hitches and Syd (freshman with a broken hand and a cast) couldn't grab on and tackle him and he ran 70 yards for a touchdown twice.
After that, Cal was playing catch up and nothing seemed to go right... crowd went nuts, Cal got intimidated, and then all of a sudden it was 35-0.
This year, Nate is going to be great (but maybe not quite as good as people think), our special teams are without any question whatsoever the best in the country, our line is solid, our runningbacks are very good and we have 4 WR's that will play in the NFL.
Linebackers are great, but secondary is merely above average and the D-line sucks, and therein is Cal's problem.
I know our defense is designed for the line to eat up blockers and let our backers make all the plays, but even so I really don't think that they are very good this year. We'll probably struggle to get pressure on Ainge, and when you give that guy time in the pocket he's real good. (You should've seen his jersey after the game last year - spotless. and that was with Mebane)
If Tennessee's receivers are even decent (which they might not be) this will be tough.
I think Cal's a better team, I like the fact that we are at home, and I think we should win the game the majority of the time... that said I don't think that there is HUGE value at -5.5. I think that a fair line is -6 or even -6.5, 7 at most. Those lucky enough to get on this when it was around 4 should be thankful. Go Bears.