6-0 in my last 6, all with write-ups, and I won't be posting often. The goal is 10 in a row.
1-0 this season which is nothing to write home about at the moment.
Bad season last year and I will turn that around this year.
Rutgers has too much turmoil. They could turn all that turmoil into a cover or get blown out. One thing is for certain, Penn State is not very good.
Why pick a Temple@UMass side? Because Jersey is actually 3 separate states to the people who live here. North Jersey, Central Jersey and South Jersey. As you go further South, it's more Eagles/Penn State country with coverage of Temple so I do know Penn State and Temple as well as Rutgers.
We are going with the home dog in UMass here at +13.5.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
6-0 in my last 6, all with write-ups, and I won't be posting often. The goal is 10 in a row.
1-0 this season which is nothing to write home about at the moment.
Bad season last year and I will turn that around this year.
Rutgers has too much turmoil. They could turn all that turmoil into a cover or get blown out. One thing is for certain, Penn State is not very good.
Why pick a Temple@UMass side? Because Jersey is actually 3 separate states to the people who live here. North Jersey, Central Jersey and South Jersey. As you go further South, it's more Eagles/Penn State country with coverage of Temple so I do know Penn State and Temple as well as Rutgers.
We are going with the home dog in UMass here at +13.5.
1. Massive overreaction to Temple's success the first two weeks
Yes, Temple has impressed us. They beat Penn State from pillar to post for the first time in 74 years (which speaks to their previous ineptitude. Then they beat Cincy at home in a possible letdown spot. But let's examine those games.
Penn State, for all the hoopla that surrounds them, is still not all that good. They struggled to beat Rutgers last year (an embarrassment right now with what surrounds that University), and now after giving up TEN sacks to Temple, they came home in front of 100,000 and only lead Buffalo....Yes BUFFALO, in what should have been a slaughter as 21 pt favorites, and lead 10-3 in the third quarter, getting nothing done in nearly 2.5 quarters when they should have been a house of fire. They did not cover the 21 or the 17.5 the sharps pounded that line down to.
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Reasons:
1. Massive overreaction to Temple's success the first two weeks
Yes, Temple has impressed us. They beat Penn State from pillar to post for the first time in 74 years (which speaks to their previous ineptitude. Then they beat Cincy at home in a possible letdown spot. But let's examine those games.
Penn State, for all the hoopla that surrounds them, is still not all that good. They struggled to beat Rutgers last year (an embarrassment right now with what surrounds that University), and now after giving up TEN sacks to Temple, they came home in front of 100,000 and only lead Buffalo....Yes BUFFALO, in what should have been a slaughter as 21 pt favorites, and lead 10-3 in the third quarter, getting nothing done in nearly 2.5 quarters when they should have been a house of fire. They did not cover the 21 or the 17.5 the sharps pounded that line down to.
The problem is that Hackenberg is a bit of a stiff right now. He keeps his eyes directly on his receivers, throws deliberate passes, and is immobile. He couldn't get much done against what is now a respectable Temple defense. Penn State came out unprepared and still lead 10-0 and then their O-Line couldn't block. I just want to note, 3 of 10 of those sacks came in the final 1:30 in the final series when the game was over. 7 sacks is still impressive, but 10 leads ESPN. Loved the fact they got over a 74 year hump with Penn State but the Penn State team they beat is one of the weakest they've ever had in recent memory before the Paterno scandal and sanctions.
What about Cincy? Tons of turnovers lost them that game. 4 INT's which completely changed the complexion of the game. Several misses on open receivers in the first half which gave Temple momentum. 2 of 4 of those INT's went off the hands of Cincy receivers (one in the end zone for a tying score) right into the arms of Temple defenders.
To open the second half? 100 yard Kickoff return by Temple's Jahad Thomas. Completely took the air out of Cincy and did not demonstrate who Temple was on offense with PJ Walker behind center (only 81 yards in the air).
For all the talk of Temple's stout D? They gave up 552 yards of total offense to Cincy. 552! Folks, let's get off the Temple high horse here.
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The problem is that Hackenberg is a bit of a stiff right now. He keeps his eyes directly on his receivers, throws deliberate passes, and is immobile. He couldn't get much done against what is now a respectable Temple defense. Penn State came out unprepared and still lead 10-0 and then their O-Line couldn't block. I just want to note, 3 of 10 of those sacks came in the final 1:30 in the final series when the game was over. 7 sacks is still impressive, but 10 leads ESPN. Loved the fact they got over a 74 year hump with Penn State but the Penn State team they beat is one of the weakest they've ever had in recent memory before the Paterno scandal and sanctions.
What about Cincy? Tons of turnovers lost them that game. 4 INT's which completely changed the complexion of the game. Several misses on open receivers in the first half which gave Temple momentum. 2 of 4 of those INT's went off the hands of Cincy receivers (one in the end zone for a tying score) right into the arms of Temple defenders.
To open the second half? 100 yard Kickoff return by Temple's Jahad Thomas. Completely took the air out of Cincy and did not demonstrate who Temple was on offense with PJ Walker behind center (only 81 yards in the air).
For all the talk of Temple's stout D? They gave up 552 yards of total offense to Cincy. 552! Folks, let's get off the Temple high horse here.
2. #1 above has lead to a huge line move against Temple and in favor of UMass
The books opened Temple as a 9 pt road favorite. That line has now ballooned to it's highest point before kickoff at 13.5. So when do we bet it? When we get the best line! (It has hit 14 on some obscure books but on 5 Dimes, it hasn't gone over 13.5).
Let me tell you how INSANE it is for Temple to be a 13.5 pt road favorite. I searched all 30 years of past lines and results for Temple and 95% of all games they never even remotely approached such a line and only went over it once as a 15 pt road favorite against Akron in Sept 2011.
In Temple capping terms, this is a historic line. They were 7 point dogs on the road to Penn state and 7 pt home dogs to Cincy. Two wins later. 13.5 pt road favorites. This is historically a huge (and I do not use the word huge lightly as there was a time this team was routinely a 30+ pt dog) dog team and again, now, after 2 games, they are laying 13.5 pts on the road.
Well why take UMass?
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2. #1 above has lead to a huge line move against Temple and in favor of UMass
The books opened Temple as a 9 pt road favorite. That line has now ballooned to it's highest point before kickoff at 13.5. So when do we bet it? When we get the best line! (It has hit 14 on some obscure books but on 5 Dimes, it hasn't gone over 13.5).
Let me tell you how INSANE it is for Temple to be a 13.5 pt road favorite. I searched all 30 years of past lines and results for Temple and 95% of all games they never even remotely approached such a line and only went over it once as a 15 pt road favorite against Akron in Sept 2011.
In Temple capping terms, this is a historic line. They were 7 point dogs on the road to Penn state and 7 pt home dogs to Cincy. Two wins later. 13.5 pt road favorites. This is historically a huge (and I do not use the word huge lightly as there was a time this team was routinely a 30+ pt dog) dog team and again, now, after 2 games, they are laying 13.5 pts on the road.
UMass opened it's season one week later than the rest of the nation. Why I don't know, but they had Colorado coming in. That's a very big deal. Just ask LSU who had to go right into their own week 1 after a cancellation against Miss St and didn't cover the 4.5. Playing a game and getting that monkey off your back, win or loss, means something.
Colorado went to Hawaii the week before and LOST OUTRIGHT 28-20. Folks, even though the game was in Hawaii, Colorado was not supposed to lose that game. That was supposed to be a nice vacation 'hit the beach after we win' game for them as 7 pt favorites with only the time zone issue being a problem.
So Colorado gets their first home game of the year, angry as all hell, with Maryland having to go all the way West to open their season.
Terrible spot for them and they still stayed competitive tied 14-14 at the half. Then the floodgates opened and they threw in the towel and got blown out 48-14.
So that is where this line comes from. A terrible spot for UMass and national attention for Temple after a mere TWO games now spotting Umass a whopping 13.5 ON THE ROAD.
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3. Scheduling quirk against UMass
UMass opened it's season one week later than the rest of the nation. Why I don't know, but they had Colorado coming in. That's a very big deal. Just ask LSU who had to go right into their own week 1 after a cancellation against Miss St and didn't cover the 4.5. Playing a game and getting that monkey off your back, win or loss, means something.
Colorado went to Hawaii the week before and LOST OUTRIGHT 28-20. Folks, even though the game was in Hawaii, Colorado was not supposed to lose that game. That was supposed to be a nice vacation 'hit the beach after we win' game for them as 7 pt favorites with only the time zone issue being a problem.
So Colorado gets their first home game of the year, angry as all hell, with Maryland having to go all the way West to open their season.
Terrible spot for them and they still stayed competitive tied 14-14 at the half. Then the floodgates opened and they threw in the towel and got blown out 48-14.
So that is where this line comes from. A terrible spot for UMass and national attention for Temple after a mere TWO games now spotting Umass a whopping 13.5 ON THE ROAD.
Temple has been named National Team of the Week by the Sportwriters of America. The local media is going gaga over them and there are team interviews and large press contingents at their practices daily. It is mighty hard as a young college kid to keep up with all this as a very low level school with a history of poor performance and now after all that, being the Cinderella story of college football.
That is just conjecture but now they go on the road and lay 13.5? Give me all the points as Temple keeping its focus to cover such a number is a lot to ask.
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4. All eyes on Temple
Temple has been named National Team of the Week by the Sportwriters of America. The local media is going gaga over them and there are team interviews and large press contingents at their practices daily. It is mighty hard as a young college kid to keep up with all this as a very low level school with a history of poor performance and now after all that, being the Cinderella story of college football.
That is just conjecture but now they go on the road and lay 13.5? Give me all the points as Temple keeping its focus to cover such a number is a lot to ask.
They wanted a bowl this year after a lost season last year. Their next game is not a lookahead game. In fact, it's likely the one game on the schedule they have tabbed as a loss @ Notre Dame. If this team starts 0-3 (a very real possibility if they lose here), a bowl is going to be very hard to achieve. 1-1 to 1-2, it is still within reach. We only need them to be competitive with 13.5 in a game they will want to win. I'll take the points.
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5. UMass's expectations
They wanted a bowl this year after a lost season last year. Their next game is not a lookahead game. In fact, it's likely the one game on the schedule they have tabbed as a loss @ Notre Dame. If this team starts 0-3 (a very real possibility if they lose here), a bowl is going to be very hard to achieve. 1-1 to 1-2, it is still within reach. We only need them to be competitive with 13.5 in a game they will want to win. I'll take the points.
The QB of UMass. He'll be drafted to the NFL. This is a guy with an accurate arm and he can air it out when he wants too. He came from Marshall and won 3 of his last 4 starts outright (and in his last 6 last season, 6 straight ATS covers) before going down with an injury and missing the final two games last year (both losses after he left). So his somewhat poor performance against Colorado (not all that bad in 20-35 for 225 1TD and 1INT), was also his first game back after going down last year. He came from Marshall as a backup so you know the kid had to have some kind of arm.
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6. Blake Frohnapfel
The QB of UMass. He'll be drafted to the NFL. This is a guy with an accurate arm and he can air it out when he wants too. He came from Marshall and won 3 of his last 4 starts outright (and in his last 6 last season, 6 straight ATS covers) before going down with an injury and missing the final two games last year (both losses after he left). So his somewhat poor performance against Colorado (not all that bad in 20-35 for 225 1TD and 1INT), was also his first game back after going down last year. He came from Marshall as a backup so you know the kid had to have some kind of arm.
Not only is this a bounceback game for Maryland, it's a bounceback game for him. And I love the fact this kid can backdoor this number with one throw.
I've typed too much. Just go look at the consensus favorites on Covers front page. Temple at 70%+ picked in second after Wisky. You want to join those guys and take Temple after all the above? Be my guest.
The pick: UMass +13.5 over Temple
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Not only is this a bounceback game for Maryland, it's a bounceback game for him. And I love the fact this kid can backdoor this number with one throw.
I've typed too much. Just go look at the consensus favorites on Covers front page. Temple at 70%+ picked in second after Wisky. You want to join those guys and take Temple after all the above? Be my guest.
The QB of UMass. He'll be drafted to the NFL. This is a guy with an accurate arm and he can air it out when he wants too. He came from Marshall and won 3 of his last 4 starts outright (and in his last 6 last season, 6 straight ATS covers) before going down with an injury and missing the final two games last year (both losses after he left). So his somewhat poor performance against Colorado (not all that bad in 20-35 for 225 1TD and 1INT), was also his first game back after going down last year. He came from Marshall as a backup so you know the kid had to have some kind of arm.
Not sure I follow tour logic that a backup QB at Marshall with bad knees, will someday be playing in the NFL. Im not sure I really care either that he plays in the NFL, unless I got money on his zzz and he's playing for the Patriots and I need the friggin Pats to score a TD to cover, and he's got the ball on 3rd and long with a minute to go...What happens if Temple knocks out his knees?
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
6. Blake Frohnapfel
The QB of UMass. He'll be drafted to the NFL. This is a guy with an accurate arm and he can air it out when he wants too. He came from Marshall and won 3 of his last 4 starts outright (and in his last 6 last season, 6 straight ATS covers) before going down with an injury and missing the final two games last year (both losses after he left). So his somewhat poor performance against Colorado (not all that bad in 20-35 for 225 1TD and 1INT), was also his first game back after going down last year. He came from Marshall as a backup so you know the kid had to have some kind of arm.
Not sure I follow tour logic that a backup QB at Marshall with bad knees, will someday be playing in the NFL. Im not sure I really care either that he plays in the NFL, unless I got money on his zzz and he's playing for the Patriots and I need the friggin Pats to score a TD to cover, and he's got the ball on 3rd and long with a minute to go...What happens if Temple knocks out his knees?
They wanted a bowl this year after a lost season last year. Their next game is not a lookahead game. In fact, it's likely the one game on the schedule they have tabbed as a loss @ Notre Dame. If this team starts 0-3 (a very real possibility if they lose here), a bowl is going to be very hard to achieve. 1-1 to 1-2, it is still within reach. We only need them to be competitive with 13.5 in a game they will want to win. I'll take the points.
First of aa
ll, if Im playing for UMASS and Ive got Notre Dame on the schedule, that is definitely a lookahead game--that is for any college player, if you have a pulse. Id say Temple is a look past possibity.
2nd, if anyone on MY team (if Im the coach) doesn't think we can win a game were preparing for, get the fck off my team.every kid has to believe that they can win.
3rd, maybe they thought they would bowl last year, and it ws a lost season, and maybe they think they will bowl this year, but reality is settling in again....
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
5. UMass's expectations
They wanted a bowl this year after a lost season last year. Their next game is not a lookahead game. In fact, it's likely the one game on the schedule they have tabbed as a loss @ Notre Dame. If this team starts 0-3 (a very real possibility if they lose here), a bowl is going to be very hard to achieve. 1-1 to 1-2, it is still within reach. We only need them to be competitive with 13.5 in a game they will want to win. I'll take the points.
First of aa
ll, if Im playing for UMASS and Ive got Notre Dame on the schedule, that is definitely a lookahead game--that is for any college player, if you have a pulse. Id say Temple is a look past possibity.
2nd, if anyone on MY team (if Im the coach) doesn't think we can win a game were preparing for, get the fck off my team.every kid has to believe that they can win.
3rd, maybe they thought they would bowl last year, and it ws a lost season, and maybe they think they will bowl this year, but reality is settling in again....
How do you see the UMass D holding the talented Owls running game? I believe the Buffs blow and blow hard. The Buffs ran for almost 400/hards vs UMass. Owls have been able to produce turnovers and negative yards on D, the opposite of UMass. Is Gillette Stadium really a home game for UMass?. I think Berman talked about this upset on ESPN. I am not in the USA but I was told.
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How do you see the UMass D holding the talented Owls running game? I believe the Buffs blow and blow hard. The Buffs ran for almost 400/hards vs UMass. Owls have been able to produce turnovers and negative yards on D, the opposite of UMass. Is Gillette Stadium really a home game for UMass?. I think Berman talked about this upset on ESPN. I am not in the USA but I was told.
Not sure I follow tour logic that a backup QB at Marshall with bad knees, will someday be playing in the NFL. Im not sure I really care either that he plays in the NFL, unless I got money on his zzz and he's playing for the Patriots and I need the friggin Pats to score a TD to cover, and he's got the ball on 3rd and long with a minute to go...What happens if Temple knocks out his knees?
You can take it up with the Temple coaches who continually praised him as an future NFL talent (not necessarily a first rounder but someone who is drafted).
You don't understand what a lookahead game is then. When you are
0-1 after just getting blown out in your opening game, you are not game planning to go to ND and win (because you're I'll likely lose at you level and be a heavy underdog to boot). You are only looking at what's in front of you and right now, the way Temple is playing, winning this game will do far more for their season and confidence than losing to ND. If you think coaches or players are worrying about ND right now, you are dead wrong. Again, an 0-3 start puts their bowl chances. And anyhow, they don't even have to win the game when you get 13.5 so I could care less. I'm only betting them to be competitive.
Reality doesn't 'set in' after a bad situational loss...
Owls will run on them, but again, we get 13.5. That's a huge line at it's highest point.
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Quote Originally Posted by Relax_Dude:
Not sure I follow tour logic that a backup QB at Marshall with bad knees, will someday be playing in the NFL. Im not sure I really care either that he plays in the NFL, unless I got money on his zzz and he's playing for the Patriots and I need the friggin Pats to score a TD to cover, and he's got the ball on 3rd and long with a minute to go...What happens if Temple knocks out his knees?
You can take it up with the Temple coaches who continually praised him as an future NFL talent (not necessarily a first rounder but someone who is drafted).
You don't understand what a lookahead game is then. When you are
0-1 after just getting blown out in your opening game, you are not game planning to go to ND and win (because you're I'll likely lose at you level and be a heavy underdog to boot). You are only looking at what's in front of you and right now, the way Temple is playing, winning this game will do far more for their season and confidence than losing to ND. If you think coaches or players are worrying about ND right now, you are dead wrong. Again, an 0-3 start puts their bowl chances. And anyhow, they don't even have to win the game when you get 13.5 so I could care less. I'm only betting them to be competitive.
Reality doesn't 'set in' after a bad situational loss...
Owls will run on them, but again, we get 13.5. That's a huge line at it's highest point.
How do you see the UMass D holding the talented Owls running game? I believe the Buffs blow and blow hard. The Buffs ran for almost 400/hards vs UMass. Owls have been able to produce turnovers and negative yards on D, the opposite of UMass. Is Gillette Stadium really a home game for UMass?. I think Berman talked about this upset on ESPN. I am not in the USA but I was told.
Buffs did run on them. They don't blow hard. They were double digit favorites in that game. Read about the scheduling quirk above with regard to how Umass got blown out, being run on or otherwise...
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Quote Originally Posted by frankthebank$:
How do you see the UMass D holding the talented Owls running game? I believe the Buffs blow and blow hard. The Buffs ran for almost 400/hards vs UMass. Owls have been able to produce turnovers and negative yards on D, the opposite of UMass. Is Gillette Stadium really a home game for UMass?. I think Berman talked about this upset on ESPN. I am not in the USA but I was told.
Buffs did run on them. They don't blow hard. They were double digit favorites in that game. Read about the scheduling quirk above with regard to how Umass got blown out, being run on or otherwise...
5 Unit Play. #112 Take UMASS Minutemen +10.5 over Temple Owls (Saturday 3
pm ESPN 3) TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE WEEK. The Owls are coming
off two straight underdog wins to open up the 2015 season, but expect
them to come down from this high facing UMASS in a half-empty stadium in
Foxboro, MA. The Minutemen return almost everybody from last year, and
they played Colorado and Vanderbilt tough last season, two similar teams
to Temple. Expect this game to go down to the wire, and we will gladly
take the points.
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5 Unit Play. #112 Take UMASS Minutemen +10.5 over Temple Owls (Saturday 3
pm ESPN 3) TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE WEEK. The Owls are coming
off two straight underdog wins to open up the 2015 season, but expect
them to come down from this high facing UMASS in a half-empty stadium in
Foxboro, MA. The Minutemen return almost everybody from last year, and
they played Colorado and Vanderbilt tough last season, two similar teams
to Temple. Expect this game to go down to the wire, and we will gladly
take the points.
but i have to disagree with ur thinking that the U at Buffalo is a bad squad.. They should be a very good ATS squad this season and pull off a couple ML DOG wins in MAC play
Temple might murder UMASS , but this is a pass for me
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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best of luck Brother
No Idea who wins this game ATS
but i have to disagree with ur thinking that the U at Buffalo is a bad squad.. They should be a very good ATS squad this season and pull off a couple ML DOG wins in MAC play
Temple might murder UMASS , but this is a pass for me
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