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***THURSDAY NIGHT MY BIGGEST PLAY OF THE YEAR***

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Posted: #26
nice writeup agree on the pick as well
 
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Posted: #27
great write-up. I worry about the bye week. I also disagree that Kiffin cannot coach (offense at least), but Monte is a solid D coach, just a bare cupboard. I lean to over and USC.
 
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Posted: #28
Not a big trend guy but this looks good....

Michigan hasn't been 6-0 since, 1948.


Michigan is 0-12-1 ATS in revenge games

Michigan is 3-18-1 in game 6 road dog


Sparty has had two weeks to prepair fot his game and I can go on and on about match ups....tons of spreads but thought that was interesting about the wolves not being 6-0 since 1948





 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Sosana:

Not a big trend guy but this looks good....

Michigan hasn't been 6-0 since, 1948.


Michigan is 0-12-1 ATS in revenge games

Michigan is 3-18-1 in game 6 road dog


Sparty has had two weeks to prepair fot his game and I can go on and on about match ups....tons of spreads but thought that was interesting about the wolves not being 6-0 since 1948








Wrong thread please remove mods>>>>>>>
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Sosana:

Not a big trend guy but this looks good....

Michigan hasn't been 6-0 since, 1948.


Michigan is 0-12-1 ATS in revenge games

Michigan is 3-18-1 in game 6 road dog


Sparty has had two weeks to prepair fot his game and I can go on and on about match ups....tons of spreads but thought that was interesting about the wolves not being 6-0 since 1948





I like MSU in this game too but your information is completely wrong. Michigan I know for a fact started 6-0 in 2006 and 1997 when they went undefeated and won the Natl Championship! The 1948 stat is for first year coaches at Michigan. Bennie Osterban in 1948 started 6-0 in his first year and Hoke is the first coach since in his first yr to start 6-0.

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by BigShotBill:

I like MSU in this game too but your information is completely wrong. Michigan I know for a fact started 6-0 in 2006 and 1997 when they went undefeated and won the Natl Championship! The 1948 stat is for first year coaches at Michigan. Bennie Osterban in 1948 started 6-0 in his first year and Hoke is the first coach since in his first yr to start 6-0.





 
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Posted: #32
USC WINS THIS GAME EASILY,
 
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Posted: #33
regardless of if Maynard was hurt or not the problem is he sucks, it seems yours reasoning was he was hurt against the ducks and usc d sucks. But if you really watched the game against oregon you would have seen that if you make him move his feet he couldnt throw it in the ocean, he was missing wide open receivers. USC defense has only looked like swiss cheese against zona who has the 3rd best passing offense in the country. No home field advantage for Cal here and USC dominated them 95-17 in recent yrs.
 
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Posted: #34
i think you know jack shit about the pac-12 but you have the right side on this one....gl bud
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by BigShotBill:

I like MSU in this game too but your information is completely wrong. Michigan I know for a fact started 6-0 in 2006 and 1997 when they went undefeated and won the Natl Championship! The 1948 stat is for first year coaches at Michigan. Bennie Osterban in 1948 started 6-0 in his first year and Hoke is the first coach since in his first yr to start 6-0.

yeah and Detroit hasn't been 5-0 since early 1950's either...but they are now! 

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by HERMES:

NCAAF 28-31

LAST WEEK 4-1

DECIDED TO GO BACK TO MY ORIGINAL PHILOSOPHY OF PLAYING ONLY ABOUT 5 GAMES A WEEK IN COLLEGE INSTEAD OF TEN AND LIKE OLD TIMES I CAME OUT A WINNER.

THURSDAY NIGHT:

This will not be a very popular play however the California Bears at home getting points on homecoming to the poorly coached USC Trojans is a steal!! Cal the last few years has had top 20 recruiting classes and the talent level difference between USC and Cal is close. You couple this with the fact that USC is coached by the horrible Lane KiffIn and the Golden Bears will be victorious Thursday night. Alot of people dont realize that Cal QB Zach Maynard got injured against the Ducks last week and was having a hard time making plays due to a quad contusion. Reports are that he has healed up 100% and will be back on the field on Thursday. Check this out....

Junior California quarterback Zach Maynard would not admit it, and would not use it as an excuse, but, according to head coach Jeff Tedford, the Bears' signal-caller was suffering from a quad contusion during last week's 43-15 loss to No. 9 Oregon. 

"He had a quad bruise, early in the game," Tedford said on Monday. 
When asked if the contusion could have hindered Maynard's ability to use his legs to gain yards or to push off on short swing passes, Tedford said that it indeed could have.

 Maynard's brother Keenan Allen -- who caught nine passes for a game-high 170 yards - said that he knew his older sibling was hurting, and tried to help pull him through. 

"He had a little contusion, and said he couldn't throw off his back foot," Allen said. "That's why his passes were off. We just had to make the best of it. He definitely wanted to fight through it and help us out. He knew if he stayed out there, he felt like he still [was] a great asset to the team, even with the leg hurting, he was going to come out there and give it a fight. We had his back the whole way, so we were still trying to make plays. 

"I definitely expect the most out of Zach this game, coming off the last game. I'm always going to expect a lot from him because he's my brother, but as far as the offense, we've got to put points on the board and help our defense." 

This week, Maynard is healing and ready to go. The reason he did not finish out last week's contest was due to a hit that he took that left him "fuzzy."

 It was a tale of two halves for the Bears last week. The first half Cal was moving the football on offense and keeping the Quacks explosive offense off the field and out of sync. Second Half as everyone knows that didnt happen. Maynard continued to miss easy passes and was unable to make plays due to the injury. This is a recipe for disaster against the Ducks as they are a rythym offense. Once they start scoring and getting the ball frequently they dont stop. The key to beating the Ducks is keeping their offense off the field and out of sync which like I said Cal did in the first half of the game. Dont be fooled folks Cal is a very good football team. On offense they have the best WR duo in the country in Marvin Jones and Keenan Allen. These guys can score from anywhere on the field and so far Cal QB Maynard has proved (before the disastrous second half against Oregon) that he can get them the ball. This is not good news for one of the worst secondaries in the nation. Here's something I clipped out of an article for you all to read....


oregon played literally 1 QTR of real football and won the game, honestly I think the 3QTR was the real deal, then james got hurt and t=Oregon basically shut it down. CAl has 1 receiver,no real running game, the O-line dominates no one and they do not look like a bunch of 5 start atheltes/recruits on this team at all. yes a few but really I dont see a lot of NFL talent on this team or any real leader or a workhorse/game changer on the roster. With that said, USC has about 5 real NFL players on the field at key positions QB, WR, and a D-linemen or linbacker or 2 I'm sure, just look at the NFL drafts every year. This is not USC of the glory days but they have enough of the Blue Chippers out there to win this game by 7 no problem. I know they havve a solid QB that can lead scoring drives at least 1 TD a qtr you can expect, no 2nd half shutouts for USC, yes the D- will give up points to good passing teams like ASU and Arizona, but CAl does not qualify as a good passing team in my book, the QB is the definition of AVERAGE and trust me no recruiting wars over this kid, dasrn near looks like the college version of trent Dilfer. As for the injuries, he looked ok to me physically just his weak O-line and having only 1 WR really did not give him much chance for success and his accuracy is suspect. I am by nio means a fan of USC or really see them as an elite or even top 25 team, I do they they will cover the spread and win by at least a 1 TD due to CALS's inablity to put up points against average to good defenses and USC having offensive talent good for about 4 TD's a game.

 
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Posted: #37

This is NOT a home game for Cal... AT&T Park is not their home field. Strawberry Canyon in Berkely is MUCH more difficult to play at than a neighboring pro stadium.  Combine that with the annual SC road trip to the Cal/Stanford game and you will have upwards of 20k USC fans at the stadium.

Cal played virtually a perfect first 30 minutes of football against the ducks.  Their meltdown was not due to maynard's injury, but a combination of a toal Bear lack of execution combined with an Ass ripping from the Duck head coach at HT to wake his team the hell up.

Not one word mention of the Barkley/Woods combo and how that will affect the game.

Your write up had alot of good info, but it was eloquently spun like a good political campaign manager to suit your wager.

SC has proven to be defenseless against tall powerfull talented passing QB's, and I shudder to think what Andrew Luck will do to them when SC faces the Cardinal.

The Bears were absolutely bitch slapped in the 2nd H in Auzten Stadium and left Eugene with their tails between their legs. How hard will it be to get back up for this game WITH CONFIDENCE?

Without commenting on Lane Kiffin, I personally hate the Tampa 2 defense Monte Kiffin is in charge of, and feel like they dont blitz or stunt enough.  They often stuff the run and then give up large chunks through the air.

I like the over in this game, but feel the first half could be a feeling out period similar to the Duck game.

 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by BigMouMan:

oregon played literally 1 QTR of real football and won the game, honestly I think the 3QTR was the real deal, then james got hurt and t=Oregon basically shut it down. CAl has 1 receiver,no real running game, the O-line dominates no one and they do not look like a bunch of 5 start atheltes/recruits on this team at all. yes a few but really I dont see a lot of NFL talent on this team or any real leader or a workhorse/game changer on the roster. With that said, USC has about 5 real NFL players on the field at key positions QB, WR, and a D-linemen or linbacker or 2 I'm sure, just look at the NFL drafts every year. This is not USC of the glory days but they have enough of the Blue Chippers out there to win this game by 7 no problem. I know they havve a solid QB that can lead scoring drives at least 1 TD a qtr you can expect, no 2nd half shutouts for USC, yes the D- will give up points to good passing teams like ASU and Arizona, but CAl does not qualify as a good passing team in my book, the QB is the definition of AVERAGE and trust me no recruiting wars over this kid, dasrn near looks like the college version of trent Dilfer. As for the injuries, he looked ok to me physically just his weak O-line and having only 1 WR really did not give him much chance for success and his accuracy is suspect. I am by nio means a fan of USC or really see them as an elite or even top 25 team, I do they they will cover the spread and win by at least a 1 TD due to CALS's inablity to put up points against average to good defenses and USC having offensive talent good for about 4 TD's a game.


The Cal Oline has been playing tremendous lately what games have you been watching they have opened up gaping holes for Sofele and have been giving Maynard time to make throws. You obviously dont know about Cal because you wouldnt be saying they have only one good WR. Everybody knows they have the best duo in the country. The Blue chippers on USC you are talking about havent proved anything!! On the road here this will be a very tough game.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by bakemcbride:

This is NOT a home game for Cal... AT&T Park is not their home field. Strawberry Canyon in Berkely is MUCH more difficult to play at than a neighboring pro stadium.  Combine that with the annual SC road trip to the Cal/Stanford game and you will have upwards of 20k USC fans at the stadium.

Cal played virtually a perfect first 30 minutes of football against the ducks.  Their meltdown was not due to maynard's injury, but a combination of a toal Bear lack of execution combined with an Ass ripping from the Duck head coach at HT to wake his team the hell up.

Not one word mention of the Barkley/Woods combo and how that will affect the game.

Your write up had alot of good info, but it was eloquently spun like a good political campaign manager to suit your wager.

SC has proven to be defenseless against tall powerfull talented passing QB's, and I shudder to think what Andrew Luck will do to them when SC faces the Cardinal.

The Bears were absolutely bitch slapped in the 2nd H in Auzten Stadium and left Eugene with their tails between their legs. How hard will it be to get back up for this game WITH CONFIDENCE?

Without commenting on Lane Kiffin, I personally hate the Tampa 2 defense Monte Kiffin is in charge of, and feel like they dont blitz or stunt enough.  They often stuff the run and then give up large chunks through the air.

I like the over in this game, but feel the first half could be a feeling out period similar to the Duck game.


Anyway you chop it up this is a home game for Cal. The game will be most likely soldout and most students will be at the game. Cal has played in 5 different venues in 5 games and have looked good in most of them. After being on the road for many games dont you think they will be super pumped up to play in front of their fans in a primetime game?? Add in the revenge factor and you have a team that wins the motivation battle here. If you really think about it what does USC have to play for?? They cant even go to a bowl game this year...This game means WAY more to Cal than it does to the Trojans. 
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Sosana:

 

Throw in the home stat trend for Thursday day games which and don't quote me on this but I think its like 42-22 or something down those lines...

Wait till kick off thursday...public is pounding the Sh*t outta USC.

I use 4 various algorithm formula's that are calculated on a software I use. Its been hitting 75% on games they are are in aggreement with and over all hitting 58 to 65% on all games selected for that weekend which range from 8 to 29 games if they fit the criteria.

Two games circled for thursday Cal Bears (4-0) and SD St (3-1).

I've been quietly waiting this game brother and I have a spread win of a TD SU for Bears that evening. I see this like +3.5 by kickoff. I will have a big play on the spread and a little on the ML for this one...

Only thing USC has going is they have been prepairing for two weeks now on the bye.

How many units you have on this one? my standard unit is 1 but for GOW its 2.5 units, GOM is 4 units....GOM is Mich St this week...

BOL brother....I'll will be riding the one for sure....


This is 4 times my normal wager. I'm leanin AF in the other game but not enough to make a play. Good Luck to us!!
 
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Posted: #41

HERMES, your write ups are very informative no doubt.  I am not against you on this angle.  I am merely pointing out some thoughts that need to be included to make this capping writeup completely thorough.

 

dont you think they will be super pumped up to play in front of their fans in a primetime game??  Yes. No question.  I was merely saying that Strawberry Canyon on the Berkeley campus is a much more hostile environment than AT&T Park.

Add in the revenge factor and you have a team that wins the motivation battle here. If you really think about it what does USC have to play for??  Not sure this is a valid question, even if it is rhetorical.  What does any team have to play for?  Cal is not going to win the Pac 12 North, so that's like saying, what does Cal have to play for?  Both teams have to play for pride.

 

They cant even go to a bowl game this year...This game means WAY more to Cal than it does to the Trojans. This implies that any team that is on Probation or that doesnt have enough wins to make it to a bowl has nothing to play for as well. 

 

Bottom line, if Cal comes out and plays like they did against Oregon, then SC wont stand a chance from the get go.  If Cal cant stop Barkley and his passing game, then it could be a long night.

This week in interviews, Lane Kiffin has stated that while he is please with their passing game, he IS NOT happy with their running game, and specifically the Oline's inability to control the line of scrimmage.  It should be interesting to see how much effort Kiffin puts into trying to establish the line the scrimmage.

 

Good luck tomorrow night HERMES.  I will be on the over

 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by bakemcbride:

HERMES, your write ups are very informative no doubt.  I am not against you on this angle.  I am merely pointing out some thoughts that need to be included to make this capping writeup completely thorough.

 

dont you think they will be super pumped up to play in front of their fans in a primetime game??  Yes. No question.  I was merely saying that Strawberry Canyon on the Berkeley campus is a much more hostile environment than AT&T Park.

Add in the revenge factor and you have a team that wins the motivation battle here. If you really think about it what does USC have to play for??  Not sure this is a valid question, even if it is rhetorical.  What does any team have to play for?  Cal is not going to win the Pac 12 North, so that's like saying, what does Cal have to play for?  Both teams have to play for pride.

 

They cant even go to a bowl game this year...This game means WAY more to Cal than it does to the Trojans. This implies that any team that is on Probation or that doesnt have enough wins to make it to a bowl has nothing to play for as well. 

 

Bottom line, if Cal comes out and plays like they did against Oregon, then SC wont stand a chance from the get go.  If Cal cant stop Barkley and his passing game, then it could be a long night.

This week in interviews, Lane Kiffin has stated that while he is please with their passing game, he IS NOT happy with their running game, and specifically the Oline's inability to control the line of scrimmage.  It should be interesting to see how much effort Kiffin puts into trying to establish the line the scrimmage.

 

Good luck tomorrow night HERMES.  I will be on the over


 Regardless of what happens it will be a fun one to watch. Thanks man good luck with your over!
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by neverlietwice:

USC WINS THIS GAME EASILY,


Now  your starting to use terms that HERMES likes to use.  Name one game USC has won EASILY.  The last time they won games easily was when John Robinson was coaching.baby
 
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Posted: #44
I'm on the other side here.  I think 1) Barkley/Woods will have a field day against Cal's D, 2) Maynard is very bad, 3) USC has owned Cal.

GL though!
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:



Now  your starting to use terms that HERMES likes to use.  Name one game USC has won EASILY.  The last time they won games easily was when John Robinson was coaching.baby


Cooler do you enjoy criticizing people's comments? Either provide some valuable insight on the game or get a life man. Just sayin....
 
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Posted: #46
 
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Posted: #47
I like USC here. Although USC can't play in a bowl game this is a big spotlight on Thursday Espn for these players to showcase their talents to the Scouting networks who will be in the bay area. This will be Socal high schoolers vs Nocal high schoolers. Within California this game has a some of those implications in addition to the usual PAC 12 rivalry. They are playing at Candlestick and i like USC with a few more weapons and skill players than CAL. This will be the closest thing USC has for a bowl game and i think that will induce more motivation.
 
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Posted: #48
Maynard cannot handle pressure, and he's only got one option, Keenan Allen. The Trojans have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game, and after 2 poor defensive outings they had to have cleaned up their act. We don't even need to talk about Barkley and the year he's having. I on the other side of this game. USC wins a tight one 27-17. Under 58.5
 
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Posted: #49
This game seems pretty close to call.  I hate to be results oriented, but USC struggled with woeful Arizona.  Cal seems to be the hot pick, but this one seems like a no-bet to me.  USC having an extra 5 days rest could prove to be a fairly significant advantage. 

 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Berserker:

I like USC here. Although USC can't play in a bowl game this is a big spotlight on Thursday Espn for these players to showcase their talents to the Scouting networks who will be in the bay area. This will be Socal high schoolers vs Nocal high schoolers. Within California this game has a some of those implications in addition to the usual PAC 12 rivalry. They are playing at Candlestick and i like USC with a few more weapons and skill players than CAL. This will be the closest thing USC has for a bowl game and i think that will induce more motivation.
  They will play at Oregon 2nd to last on their schedule . Last year they hang tough at home till 4th then gassed out so my guess is that they think of that as the closest to bowl game.  If oregon is rose bowl bound , what more can USC ask for to knock em off.
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