WOW....a lot of posts/pages again and when i went back to read some of it I saw there was actual discussions about me. But even more eye opening was the amount of people both within this thread as well as on COVERS as a whole who had lost a TON of money/units last night. This goes exactly against the whole "team concept" as we are here to help each other win, not lose, obviously.
Having said that, I will admit i was a bit perplexed to see BRAZIL give out a monster play on the Celtics. It's one thing if I had advised you that Baylor is the correct side and you had already stated you were on UCLA as what happened. This is REAL money people are playing with and I'm not joking to you when i give out what I know. That being said this is YOUR thread and YOU guys give out the picks, take the credit, and update the records. Therefore I am in no way mad i was just puzzled because it seemed like a slap in the face or that he wanted to go head to head. In the end, it was a Clippers slaughter and that did not sit well with me. But again that was yesterday and now we are on to today. For that reason, and for ANYONE who cares to win, please read what I am writing below.
The NBA can be the most profitable of all the sports short of MLB. The reason why so many people get beaten in the NBA is because they don't understand the very essence of the league. It is more a TEAM sport than any other and the first unit is almost less important than the SECOND unit. The best example can be seen in Oklahoma City. For a few years they had James Harden as the 6th man who would come off the bench and keep up the scoring pace until the starters would return. This offseason they traded him to Houston which many would say was a "steal" for Houston. The truth is that the "steal" was for OKC as they got Kevin Martin back and a slew of draft picks. Is Kevin Martin as good as Harden? No way. But is he as useful as Harden or even other 6th men? Absolutely! Do we not all agree that J.R. Smith can start somewhere in the NBA? Or Ginobili? Or Metta World Peace?
The point here is simple. The Clippers have one of the most underrated yet best second units in the NBA. This is why they are clobbering teams and why teams like the Celtics I gave no chance to. Combine that with handicappers that cannot figure them out and you have SERIOUS value on a team avg. 15 point victories and making people thousands of dollars. If you think in terms of the WHOLE team, meaning the second unit as well as the first, you will see the NBA in a much clearer fashion. That is how you can see the value in teams when they play others.
Todays games are almost as tough as yesterdays. POOLMAN you will remember i stated that in my first posting and even told you that you were spot on with the OVER b/c the number was low the two teams had active defenses. The Duke game made the casino tons of cash as did UCLA but the Duke game was a total fluke and even the guy intercepting the ball in most cases would just realize to stay down and end the game. Instead he ran for a meaningless TD and that blew the cover for you guys. Baylor was just the more motivated and better team last night and I'm sorry you did not see that coming. Had UCLA even showed up in the second half the OVER would have come in as well. That being said, here is what i think of today.
UL Monroe has lost only 2 games in their past 9 and those two were when their QB Browning was sidelined. He's back and playing at a high level and they also have a star receiver in Brent Leonard. On the other side of the ball, OHIO has given up about 40 points in their past 2 games and UL Monroe avg's about 35 points. Not to mention but UL Monroe does not run the ball much. One would think that this would mean an instant drubbing. But I think the opposite as a LOT of money has come in on UL Monroe in a virtual home game.
OHIO on the other hand averaged 35 in its first 9 before being limited to about 15 in their past 3 games. I think the rest will benefit them tremendously as the MAC has played a tough schedule. Their RB is their best player and they are going to want to find holes and get him going from the start.
I think that if you play UL Monroe on the ML you will come out a winner. I believe UL Monroe will win the game but in a very tough, hard fought, and close affair. Covering the game will happen in the fourth quarter as they pull away from OHIO in my opinion. Perhaps the safest play is the OVER as I do believe both teams will score and even expect a defensive TD.
I would also suggest taking VTech as I think they will come out with something to prove. Rutgers is let down they are not in a BCS bowl but the scariest thing is how well they play in bowl games.
Sorry for the long posting but if have read this far you probably care about your bankroll. Good luck to all and I look forward to seeing what you think.
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