let's see how this works... want to see if we can get a discussion going on the 5 best bets for week 1...
rules:
1) don't nominate more than 3 games
2) do a write-up to support your pick
3) keep the bashing and drama and agrueing to a minimum...
the goal is for us to come to somewhat of a consensus on the top plays out there... if a strong argument can be made for either side of a game, that game will not be considered one of the top plays...
if many arguments can be made for one side, and not for the other, that is a strong candidate...
cast your votes... and give your reasons...
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
let's see how this works... want to see if we can get a discussion going on the 5 best bets for week 1...
rules:
1) don't nominate more than 3 games
2) do a write-up to support your pick
3) keep the bashing and drama and agrueing to a minimum...
the goal is for us to come to somewhat of a consensus on the top plays out there... if a strong argument can be made for either side of a game, that game will not be considered one of the top plays...
if many arguments can be made for one side, and not for the other, that is a strong candidate...
Minnesota (-6.5): Gophers return 17... they were tough to beat last year when Decker (WR) was healthy, but lost all 4 games in which he was hurt... he will be healthy this time... Syracuse is an already weak team, coming into the year in rebuilding mode (is that even possible?)... green QB, lots of green defenders... i think this is a blowout... Minnesota will be excited to be on the field... Syracuse will be feeling things out... 38-17
Penn St (-26.5): this is just a case of a soft line more than anything... people see that PSU is only returning 10, and one thing you can always count on is a couple of soft lines early, when people are still uncertain about how a team will come out of the gate... Akron should get rolled over, especially by the Penn St running game... JoPa has no trouble running up a score when possible... 45-3
UAB (-4): another case of a team that returns a shitload from the previous year, vs. a team in full rebuilding mode... Rice returns a healthy portion of their defense (which sucked outloud!), but loses every single skill position player from last year's potent offense... UAB brings back unsung star in the making Joe Webb (QB)... dual threat who should be able to do whatever he wants... short line... easy money! 44-21
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my nominations:
Minnesota (-6.5): Gophers return 17... they were tough to beat last year when Decker (WR) was healthy, but lost all 4 games in which he was hurt... he will be healthy this time... Syracuse is an already weak team, coming into the year in rebuilding mode (is that even possible?)... green QB, lots of green defenders... i think this is a blowout... Minnesota will be excited to be on the field... Syracuse will be feeling things out... 38-17
Penn St (-26.5): this is just a case of a soft line more than anything... people see that PSU is only returning 10, and one thing you can always count on is a couple of soft lines early, when people are still uncertain about how a team will come out of the gate... Akron should get rolled over, especially by the Penn St running game... JoPa has no trouble running up a score when possible... 45-3
UAB (-4): another case of a team that returns a shitload from the previous year, vs. a team in full rebuilding mode... Rice returns a healthy portion of their defense (which sucked outloud!), but loses every single skill position player from last year's potent offense... UAB brings back unsung star in the making Joe Webb (QB)... dual threat who should be able to do whatever he wants... short line... easy money! 44-21
Oklahoma is my top play. My other plays will be equal so I won't mention them. You've already read my write up on the Sooners game...feel free to cut and paste it here if you'd like.
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Oklahoma is my top play. My other plays will be equal so I won't mention them. You've already read my write up on the Sooners game...feel free to cut and paste it here if you'd like.
i'm not gonna be a Nazi about enforcing the rules, Boom Boom... just wanted to set out some general guidelines so we can keep it effective... thanks for the picks!
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Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:
Sorry..... I gave 5 instead of 3
i'm not gonna be a Nazi about enforcing the rules, Boom Boom... just wanted to set out some general guidelines so we can keep it effective... thanks for the picks!
Agree completely on Minny, but cant make up my mind on UAB. I thought the number should be around UAB -7 With it now at 5.5 I am unsure what to do. I seems possible that I am giving too much credit to the 9 returning starters on Rice D. If you assume that Rice will make little improvement on D then I guess this is a no brainer. Rice O obv lost a bunch and will have problems, but am confused on what to expect out of Rice D.
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Agree completely on Minny, but cant make up my mind on UAB. I thought the number should be around UAB -7 With it now at 5.5 I am unsure what to do. I seems possible that I am giving too much credit to the 9 returning starters on Rice D. If you assume that Rice will make little improvement on D then I guess this is a no brainer. Rice O obv lost a bunch and will have problems, but am confused on what to expect out of Rice D.
Agree completely on Minny, but cant make up my mind on UAB. I thought the number should be around UAB -7 With it now at 5.5 I am unsure what to do. I seems possible that I am giving too much credit to the 9 returning starters on Rice D. If you assume that Rice will make little improvement on D then I guess this is a no brainer. Rice O obv lost a bunch and will have problems, but am confused on what to expect out of Rice D.
Think I'd like them more if they had 0 returning starters to that sieve of a defense.
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Quote Originally Posted by themog:
Agree completely on Minny, but cant make up my mind on UAB. I thought the number should be around UAB -7 With it now at 5.5 I am unsure what to do. I seems possible that I am giving too much credit to the 9 returning starters on Rice D. If you assume that Rice will make little improvement on D then I guess this is a no brainer. Rice O obv lost a bunch and will have problems, but am confused on what to expect out of Rice D.
Think I'd like them more if they had 0 returning starters to that sieve of a defense.
no matter how many people like A&M, i will not allow them to be included as a good bet on any thread i make any time this year... anyone putting money on them doesn't value money... sorry, they are disqualified...
no matter how many people like A&M, i will not allow them to be included as a good bet on any thread i make any time this year... anyone putting money on them doesn't value money... sorry, they are disqualified...
I have been well documented of my advocy of this selection. Granted, I risk ridicule if my Horns can't cover a lofty spread. Again, what is Texas record ATS 1999-2008 against 1st home home patsies from the SBC and WAC, answer 9-1. And those spreads ranged from 24 (Fla Atlantic 2008) to 40 (North Texas 2006). The ATS loss was 2007 against Ark St where Texas was -39 and won 21-13. Texas had a ranked TCU on board the following week and had prepared during camp for TCU. Ark State is well coached and defeated Texas A&M (Granted a bad A&M team at college station in 2008. For a generation, Texas will never again over look a 1st game patsy. In addition, as the history I have referenced, along with the fiasco of the Big XII tiebreaker last year, throw in OU's demolition of a good BYU team in Arlington on the same night, and Texas perceived weak SOS, this year, spells big time trouble for ULM...
Prediction
Texas 63
ULM 3
LSU -16 over Washington
Without Jake Locker, the good ole boys from LSU would go visit the Spaceneedle in Seattle and grab a latte along the way. JL is a "perceived to be a big time player when he is not hurt (that may change halfway through the 2nd quarter.) With the addition of Chavis as DC, Crowton's playcalling, Jefferson's experience, LSU's top flight OL, WR and especially their RB's in Scott and Williams, they are going to dominate this game from start to finish. If this game were in the middle of the season, all bets would be off. In my opinion, LSU players "play" when they feel like it. In essense, I think they can dominate a team well or they can coast to a victory with a half assed effort. Because of Locker and Sarkisian, LSU will not look at UW as a 0-12 team, they will look at them as a team they was previously poorly coach and had some bad luck. They will want to send a message to the SEC and the nation that LSU after a rebuilding year in 2008 is back...
Prediction
LSU 45
Washington 7
Stanford -16 over Washington State
I am also looking at Kentucky -14 over Miami of Ohio. I believe you can throw out Stanford's 58-0 domination over a hapless Cougar team on the Farm out. This will be a much closer game through 2.5 quarters. However, I believe with Stanford's experience on its Offensive Line and Defensive Line (the trenches) along with Tony Gerhart's outstanding rushing skills and Andrew Luck's rocket arm, the game will not be that close after all. Granted, Luck a RS Freshman will be starting his first game, the reviews that have come through from the spring game and camp have been outstanding (source scout.com). Stanford will have a duel threat O, dominance in the trenches, and competent back 7 on D to dominate this game. Washington State will play hard for their embattled coach (ref recruiting scandal at E. Washington), and will start off the season making a better showing than last years pathetic showing (argubly the worst effort of any team in the history of the Pac 10, though they did luck out and beat UW).
Prediction
Stanford 42
Washington State 17
How's that???
LonghornHoosier
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Texas -40 over ULM
I have been well documented of my advocy of this selection. Granted, I risk ridicule if my Horns can't cover a lofty spread. Again, what is Texas record ATS 1999-2008 against 1st home home patsies from the SBC and WAC, answer 9-1. And those spreads ranged from 24 (Fla Atlantic 2008) to 40 (North Texas 2006). The ATS loss was 2007 against Ark St where Texas was -39 and won 21-13. Texas had a ranked TCU on board the following week and had prepared during camp for TCU. Ark State is well coached and defeated Texas A&M (Granted a bad A&M team at college station in 2008. For a generation, Texas will never again over look a 1st game patsy. In addition, as the history I have referenced, along with the fiasco of the Big XII tiebreaker last year, throw in OU's demolition of a good BYU team in Arlington on the same night, and Texas perceived weak SOS, this year, spells big time trouble for ULM...
Prediction
Texas 63
ULM 3
LSU -16 over Washington
Without Jake Locker, the good ole boys from LSU would go visit the Spaceneedle in Seattle and grab a latte along the way. JL is a "perceived to be a big time player when he is not hurt (that may change halfway through the 2nd quarter.) With the addition of Chavis as DC, Crowton's playcalling, Jefferson's experience, LSU's top flight OL, WR and especially their RB's in Scott and Williams, they are going to dominate this game from start to finish. If this game were in the middle of the season, all bets would be off. In my opinion, LSU players "play" when they feel like it. In essense, I think they can dominate a team well or they can coast to a victory with a half assed effort. Because of Locker and Sarkisian, LSU will not look at UW as a 0-12 team, they will look at them as a team they was previously poorly coach and had some bad luck. They will want to send a message to the SEC and the nation that LSU after a rebuilding year in 2008 is back...
Prediction
LSU 45
Washington 7
Stanford -16 over Washington State
I am also looking at Kentucky -14 over Miami of Ohio. I believe you can throw out Stanford's 58-0 domination over a hapless Cougar team on the Farm out. This will be a much closer game through 2.5 quarters. However, I believe with Stanford's experience on its Offensive Line and Defensive Line (the trenches) along with Tony Gerhart's outstanding rushing skills and Andrew Luck's rocket arm, the game will not be that close after all. Granted, Luck a RS Freshman will be starting his first game, the reviews that have come through from the spring game and camp have been outstanding (source scout.com). Stanford will have a duel threat O, dominance in the trenches, and competent back 7 on D to dominate this game. Washington State will play hard for their embattled coach (ref recruiting scandal at E. Washington), and will start off the season making a better showing than last years pathetic showing (argubly the worst effort of any team in the history of the Pac 10, though they did luck out and beat UW).
Tulsa -13.5 at Tulane A couple of C-USA West teams open things up in New Orleans. Tulsa returns 6 from an offense that led the nation in total offense. Unfortunately, they must find a new QB. The defense returns 7, including all 3 backers.
Tulane is still trying to figure out Bob Toledo's West Coast offense, and has 8 players back on offense, though all may not start. Injury issues plague RB Adnerson and WR Williams. The defense returns 6, but two of those players are on suspension for this game, hurting a defense that gave up 35 or more points 7 times last year.
I think that Tulsa's offense will thrive against a team who is almost defenseless. This may be a high scoring game, but Tulsa's offense should love this situation.
UCLA -17 vs San Diego State. Hard to believe that this line fell that far from it's 24 point opening line. San Diego State has 9 starters returning from a team that was held to 14 or less points 8 times last year. They now hae a new coach, who is trying to salvage something out of the ground game, and to have his OL get physical. Their defense also gets a new look, with a 3-3-5 defense instituted by new DC Rocky Long. Unfortunately, all the experience is up front, and a thin secondary has been hit by injuries to two starters, who will miss this game.
UCLA is very good when they play as a unit, without injuries. They have a new QB, but plenty of depth and experience at the WR and TE positions. The line may present problems, with Seniors Kia and Ekbatani out with injuries. The defense is talented and returns 6 starters. Their FG kicker is one of the best in the nation. With key injuries to 2 starters in the San Diego secondary, UCLA should be able to score early and often. /they have owned San Deigo State in the past (6-1 ATs in their last 7 at home) and are 9-1 ATS (4-0 in their last four) in their last 10 openers. You will not get 17 any more, but anything under 21 should be good.
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I agree on Minny. I think everyone in here does.
Tulsa -13.5 at Tulane A couple of C-USA West teams open things up in New Orleans. Tulsa returns 6 from an offense that led the nation in total offense. Unfortunately, they must find a new QB. The defense returns 7, including all 3 backers.
Tulane is still trying to figure out Bob Toledo's West Coast offense, and has 8 players back on offense, though all may not start. Injury issues plague RB Adnerson and WR Williams. The defense returns 6, but two of those players are on suspension for this game, hurting a defense that gave up 35 or more points 7 times last year.
I think that Tulsa's offense will thrive against a team who is almost defenseless. This may be a high scoring game, but Tulsa's offense should love this situation.
UCLA -17 vs San Diego State. Hard to believe that this line fell that far from it's 24 point opening line. San Diego State has 9 starters returning from a team that was held to 14 or less points 8 times last year. They now hae a new coach, who is trying to salvage something out of the ground game, and to have his OL get physical. Their defense also gets a new look, with a 3-3-5 defense instituted by new DC Rocky Long. Unfortunately, all the experience is up front, and a thin secondary has been hit by injuries to two starters, who will miss this game.
UCLA is very good when they play as a unit, without injuries. They have a new QB, but plenty of depth and experience at the WR and TE positions. The line may present problems, with Seniors Kia and Ekbatani out with injuries. The defense is talented and returns 6 starters. Their FG kicker is one of the best in the nation. With key injuries to 2 starters in the San Diego secondary, UCLA should be able to score early and often. /they have owned San Deigo State in the past (6-1 ATs in their last 7 at home) and are 9-1 ATS (4-0 in their last four) in their last 10 openers. You will not get 17 any more, but anything under 21 should be good.
"no matter how many people like A&M, i will not allow them to be included as a good bet on any thread i make any time this year... anyone putting money on them doesn't value money... sorry, they are disqualified..."
I am not sure I understand this thread. You ask for opinions and when someone makes an opinion you subjectively dismiss it. Please explain
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"no matter how many people like A&M, i will not allow them to be included as a good bet on any thread i make any time this year... anyone putting money on them doesn't value money... sorry, they are disqualified..."
I am not sure I understand this thread. You ask for opinions and when someone makes an opinion you subjectively dismiss it. Please explain
I have been well documented of my advocy of this selection. Granted, I risk ridicule if my Horns can't cover a lofty spread. Again, what is Texas record ATS 1999-2008 against 1st home home patsies from the SBC and WAC, answer 9-1. And those spreads ranged from 24 (Fla Atlantic 2008) to 40 (North Texas 2006). The ATS loss was 2007 against Ark St where Texas was -39 and won 21-13. Texas had a ranked TCU on board the following week and had prepared during camp for TCU. Ark State is well coached and defeated Texas A&M (Granted a bad A&M team at college station in 2008. For a generation, Texas will never again over look a 1st game patsy. In addition, as the history I have referenced, along with the fiasco of the Big XII tiebreaker last year, throw in OU's demolition of a good BYU team in Arlington on the same night, and Texas perceived weak SOS, this year, spells big time trouble for ULM...
Prediction
Texas 63
ULM 3
LSU -16 over Washington
Without Jake Locker, the good ole boys from LSU would go visit the Spaceneedle in Seattle and grab a latte along the way. JL is a "perceived to be a big time player when he is not hurt (that may change halfway through the 2nd quarter.) With the addition of Chavis as DC, Crowton's playcalling, Jefferson's experience, LSU's top flight OL, WR and especially their RB's in Scott and Williams, they are going to dominate this game from start to finish. If this game were in the middle of the season, all bets would be off. In my opinion, LSU players "play" when they feel like it. In essense, I think they can dominate a team well or they can coast to a victory with a half assed effort. Because of Locker and Sarkisian, LSU will not look at UW as a 0-12 team, they will look at them as a team they was previously poorly coach and had some bad luck. They will want to send a message to the SEC and the nation that LSU after a rebuilding year in 2008 is back...
Prediction
LSU 45
Washington 7
Stanford -16 over Washington State
I am also looking at Kentucky -14 over Miami of Ohio. I believe you can throw out Stanford's 58-0 domination over a hapless Cougar team on the Farm out. This will be a much closer game through 2.5 quarters. However, I believe with Stanford's experience on its Offensive Line and Defensive Line (the trenches) along with Tony Gerhart's outstanding rushing skills and Andrew Luck's rocket arm, the game will not be that close after all. Granted, Luck a RS Freshman will be starting his first game, the reviews that have come through from the spring game and camp have been outstanding (source scout.com). Stanford will have a duel threat O, dominance in the trenches, and competent back 7 on D to dominate this game. Washington State will play hard for their embattled coach (ref recruiting scandal at E. Washington), and will start off the season making a better showing than last years pathetic showing (argubly the worst effort of any team in the history of the Pac 10, though they did luck out and beat UW).
Prediction
Stanford 42
Washington State 17
How's that???
Perfect. Like the write ups as well as the picks.
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Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
Texas -40 over ULM
I have been well documented of my advocy of this selection. Granted, I risk ridicule if my Horns can't cover a lofty spread. Again, what is Texas record ATS 1999-2008 against 1st home home patsies from the SBC and WAC, answer 9-1. And those spreads ranged from 24 (Fla Atlantic 2008) to 40 (North Texas 2006). The ATS loss was 2007 against Ark St where Texas was -39 and won 21-13. Texas had a ranked TCU on board the following week and had prepared during camp for TCU. Ark State is well coached and defeated Texas A&M (Granted a bad A&M team at college station in 2008. For a generation, Texas will never again over look a 1st game patsy. In addition, as the history I have referenced, along with the fiasco of the Big XII tiebreaker last year, throw in OU's demolition of a good BYU team in Arlington on the same night, and Texas perceived weak SOS, this year, spells big time trouble for ULM...
Prediction
Texas 63
ULM 3
LSU -16 over Washington
Without Jake Locker, the good ole boys from LSU would go visit the Spaceneedle in Seattle and grab a latte along the way. JL is a "perceived to be a big time player when he is not hurt (that may change halfway through the 2nd quarter.) With the addition of Chavis as DC, Crowton's playcalling, Jefferson's experience, LSU's top flight OL, WR and especially their RB's in Scott and Williams, they are going to dominate this game from start to finish. If this game were in the middle of the season, all bets would be off. In my opinion, LSU players "play" when they feel like it. In essense, I think they can dominate a team well or they can coast to a victory with a half assed effort. Because of Locker and Sarkisian, LSU will not look at UW as a 0-12 team, they will look at them as a team they was previously poorly coach and had some bad luck. They will want to send a message to the SEC and the nation that LSU after a rebuilding year in 2008 is back...
Prediction
LSU 45
Washington 7
Stanford -16 over Washington State
I am also looking at Kentucky -14 over Miami of Ohio. I believe you can throw out Stanford's 58-0 domination over a hapless Cougar team on the Farm out. This will be a much closer game through 2.5 quarters. However, I believe with Stanford's experience on its Offensive Line and Defensive Line (the trenches) along with Tony Gerhart's outstanding rushing skills and Andrew Luck's rocket arm, the game will not be that close after all. Granted, Luck a RS Freshman will be starting his first game, the reviews that have come through from the spring game and camp have been outstanding (source scout.com). Stanford will have a duel threat O, dominance in the trenches, and competent back 7 on D to dominate this game. Washington State will play hard for their embattled coach (ref recruiting scandal at E. Washington), and will start off the season making a better showing than last years pathetic showing (argubly the worst effort of any team in the history of the Pac 10, though they did luck out and beat UW).
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Perfect. Like the write ups as well as the picks.
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