Bowl Record: 9-3 +51.1 units
First let me say that I totally understand that these posts rarely produce a winner so feel free to fade this pick. I'm not trying to tout anything or sway people to take a play they don't like. I just think that I have a great feel for this game and since I'm having a good bowl season, this is going to be my biggest play.
Remember, I'm up over 50 units so I can afford a loss here. If I was 3-9 this bowl season, I would not be making this post. I'm 3-0 on my big plays and 3-0 on ML underdogs this bowl season.
I am a fan of two things: SMU and option football, especially Paul Johnson. Because SMU is rarely on TV and I have to follow them online, I have seen roughly 90 percent of Georgia Tech's snaps on the season. This isn't a homer pick, I just wanted to mention that I have a good feel for this Georgia Tech squad.
Actually, my biggest bet of the year was Wake Forest against Tech because the Jackets were in a terrible spot that week. If Tech was playing Nebraska, I would put every penny I have on the Huskers. Every penny. They would eat that option up.
Navy, Air Force and Army all run the option but no one runs it like Johnson and Tech. It all starts with Josh Nebitt. Nesbitt was an average option quarterback last season in my opinion. Instead of running upfield and pitching, he would run laterally and pitch, making it a lot easier for opposing teams to defend. He really had a problem with this against LSU in the bowl game and you saw the results.
What a difference a year makes. Nesbitt has turned into one of the best option quarterbacks I've ever watched. He has been close to perfect running this offense in 2009. He knows when to turn it up and run and the exact right time to pitch the football. In my opinion, he's probably the most improved player in the country and the main reason why Tech won the ACC.
Remember, ACC defensive coordinators had an entire offseason to study this offense on film and things only got worse for them in 2009. The Jackets were pretty much unstoppable in every game except one.
I have had a bunch of defensive coordinators that I've interviewed in the past tell me that the biggest problem they have with players trying to stop the option is they try and do too much. If a safety is assigned to take the QB and he notices the pitch man free, he may go to him instead or get caught in the middle. Making a simple mistake like that against Nesbitt can result in a quick touchdown. Make those mistakes all game long and Tech is going to roll over you.
The reason I mention this is because Iowa has never seen it before. If you have never played against this kind of offense before, it can create a big problem and it's tough to adjust to the option on the fly. If Tech has success early in the game, Iowa is going to need to score a lot of points to keep up. I'm not so sure they are built for that.
And I know it's not Florida and Alabama but Tech did play two SEC teams this year in Mississippi State and Vanderbilt where they put up a total of 98 points. The Yellow Jackets easily scored more points on these two defenses than the mighty Florida Gators did. So it wasn't just ACC teams that struggled to stop this option attack. Everyone outside of Miami had problems with it.
I keep hearing references to LSU and last year's bowl game. I don't think the Iowa defense is anything like LSU. They are a bigger unit that is built for the Big 10. I'm not saying they don't have any athletes but I think Tech's lateral speed is going to shock them in this game, especially early on. I also see that indecision I spoke of before. My gut feeling is after one quarter we will see a bunch of "Iowa is so slow" posts here on Covers.
On the other side of the ball, the Yellow Jackets have been terrible and I'm not going to insult your intelligence by saying that will change. I just want to point out one thing. Tech is not very deep on defense and suffered some injuries. I think they ran out of gas as the season went on. I suspect that with a month off they will be refreshed and perform better than they were in their last two games. They won't totally shut down Iowa but then again the Hawkeyes don't score much in the first place.
Also I think people are putting too much stock in Stanzi being back. I know he has led them to a lot of comebacks and I respect his grit but the Hawkeyes wouldn't have been behind in those games if it weren't for all of Stanzi's turnovers in the first place. Let's not have selective amnesia about this guy. Stanzi is a good game manager. He will need to be more than that here in my humble opinion to keep up with Georgia Tech's offense.
Continued...
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