Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
I've made 4 lean threads last year and this year
Last year:
Wyoming -6 over Utah State
Penn State -28 over Rutgers
This year
UAB -13.5 over Alabama A&M
Tulane -19 over Grambling State
Rutgers +14 over Nebraska
All WON in routs (except for the Rutgers loss but cover). So leaning appears to be a good thing for me when I posit certain theories.
Is this another good lean?
Well, I have some meaningful information about this game for you:
This is what UTEP is right now, perhaps the worst team in the nation:
They are second worst in the nation in YPPass. (4.4)
They are worst in the nation in YPRush (2.6)
Army actually is the worst in YPPass but is 11th in the nation in YPRush and #1 in total rushing yards to make up for it.
Pass Defense? 122nd in the nation in YPR.
Run Defense? 122nd in the nation in YPP.
They just lost a starting tight end to injury last game. They also had a starting WR go down with injury as well.
Ok, so this may arguably the worst team in the nation.
So Army is laying 24 here. Seems like a big number right? And who lays a number like 24, with ARMY!!??? Especially for an Army team that clearly is not as good as last year, their defensive stats falling off a cliff year over year. (13th last year to 46th this year in total defense).
Still to me that line is LOW. This UTEP team can do nothing offensively or defensively and has injuries to boot. They are 0-4 SU land ATS and have given up 47.8 PPG. They have one of the worst ATS spread disparities in the nation only beaten by Missouri.
This line screams that it has to been set at a ceiling because of the UNLV debacle where the books not only got slaughtered spotting Howard +45 in a cover but an outright loss. So a team like Army just won't be giving out a number over a certain threshold according to Vegas' models. And 24 appears to be that number, that ceiling of 'reason' per se.
And that is where I say we can take advantage.
So, so far I've offered nothing you couldn't have found out yourself. The game has now caught your eye, but I haven't convinced you to play it.
Well, every week, I am researching for that one piece of information, be metric or psychological that will give me an edge, that will 'put a pick over the top' and make me pull the trigger.
I believe I found that one piece of information for this game.
I found out that the UTEP coach Sean Kugler's approach to this Army game last year was eye-opening, and that we can use that information for this year.
I was listening to a show on Sirius XM on the VSIN channel (this is the gambling business site, periodical and show started by Brent Musburger).
On the show "Follow the Money" the broadcaster said that it was well known around campus last year that the players were telling the student body that the team was not preparing for Army, that is, they were not practicing to defend the triple option.
If anyone is unfamiliar, defending against the T.O. takes a complete overhaul of your practice and is very time consuming. Worse, it is typically only used to defend against a team you will play once a year. These practices are quite grinding, and require extra study and discipline on and off the field.
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