Vanzack bowl games picks thread.....

you mean fresno -10.5 i assume....

rationale on the unc game aside from motivation.  More motivation for UNC here I would think, but I think they are the much worse team....

Love all the plays except for SMU and Marshall.

Care to expand on why you like Marshall?

I cant get over how you got Fresno at -2.5 in the sense that I got them at -10.  I like UNC, Mardhal, UGA, and a few others.

I like RU though, and Oregon St. 

Obviously - it was a typo - my original post in this thread has the line at -10.5....

The -2.5 was a typo.

Holy shit - had a 1000 word writeup on Miami but hit the back button and lost it....

Basically - here are the highlights of why Im betting big on Miami:

Team speed difference
Wisky one dimensional - what are they going to do if they cant run (which I expect)
Out of conference schedule major difference
Strength of schedule
Big 10 history in bowl games against fast pro style teams
My line was Miami -10
FSU / Wisky game from last year
Stats advantages like YPP to miami
Miami playing close to home

I had written all of these up - but dont have the patience to do it again.  I cant see a reason to bet Wisky here - and think this one at least on paper is a blowout.

Miami held G Tech rushing attack to 95 yards.

How does Wisky's rushing attack compare to Gtechs - except that it is bigger and slower?  Miami's defense historically is built to thrash these big slow power rushing attacks....

BYU -  One of the biggest reasons I am on them is because Oregon State just played to go to the Rose Bowl and lost, and is now in the Las Vegas Bowl.  You cant underscore what this means in terms of motivation - teams that lose their last game of the regular season before going to a shit bowl underperform consistently.  For BYU - this isnt a shit bowl - this is their home away from home - and those mormons LOVE to go to vegas and pack the stadium.

Statistically this is close to a wash.....

I have a slight edge in the line to BYU which puts me on them for a small wager....

Hey Van,

any lean on that byu-ore st 60.5 total?

Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs.

MIAMI FLORIDA(11) 74.82 (18) VS WISCONSIN(37) 68.62 (69)

MIAMI RANKED 11th

WISCONSIN RANKED 37th

MIAMI Strength of Schedule 18

WISCONSIN Strength of Schedule 69

PLAY ON MIAMI

Rutgers plays UCF.

Now that UCLA is lined up to play Temple - Im adding that to the list...

TEMPLE +4 (2 units) - this is a hold your balls and close your eyes bet.  UCLA has the athletes to run circles around Temple - but you cant find 2 teams that seemingly have opposite motivations than these 2.

UCLA had to wait to see if ARMY would beat them out for this bowl game - and Im sure that some of them were actually hoping for that.  They have to fly to DC, to play in a shit bowl - against TEMPLE!  Cant think of a team that will be less motivated in any bowl.

Then you have Temple, which for them this is the super bowl.  They get to play a big name conference, a college football historical powerhouse, and play for a coach that fires them up.  Temple will be ready to play, and play hard all game.

Now for the bad news - UCLA is much better than Temple - so this is one to bet and not watch - but I will be on them....

My updated list:

1.  Fresno -10.5 (.5 units)
2.  UCF +2.5 (.5 units)
3.  BYU +2.5 (1.5 units)
4.  Utah +3 (2 units)
5.  SMU +15.5 (.5 units)
6.  Marshall +2.5 (1 unit)
7.  UNC +3 (4 units)
8.  BC +9 (1 unit)
9.  Kentucky +7.5 (3 units)
10.  Georgia -7 (1 unit)
11.  Miami -3 (5 units)
12.  Temple +4 (2 units)

Good luck sir.Would love to here more about what you like about Marshall. Looks like a game I want to try and stay far away from much like the 6-6 Minnesota Golden Gophers and 6-6 Iowa State Cyclones.