Vanzack bowl games picks thread.....

Is that what it is?  How do you know?

I guess Billy Walters saw it was a 5 unit play for me....

Money is money this is a no brainer ML the other side on Texas and enjoy the game.

bburgessl: Take Texas with the points for $1K

I guess the Cinci-Flor game falls under this category.  Like I said I don't follow most of the games so not sure if there were any others.  Keep your eye on this Van its a great edge. 

Former coach Brian Kelly could get charged with this one.

Kelly bailed on the Bearcats in early December, leaving behind a lame-duck staff and plenty of angry players. The players spent a few days spewing over Kelly's decision, then insisted they understood he made a business decision. The coaches, meanwhile, spent the last three weeks searching for jobs and trying to keep the team focused despite a huge distraction.

The way I evaluate this is simple.  There are 2 things that should make you bet TX in the final game - and 2 things only.

1.  Utility.  Utility is the concept of the value of a certain amount of money at the expense of value. 

If someone offered to you 2 options; the first is to take 10 million dollars, and the second is to flip a coin where if you win you get 30 million dollars and if you lose you get nothing.  The mathematically correct choice is to take the coinflip - but there is UTILITY in taking the 10 million dollars and therefore almost everyone on the planet would take the 10 million.

The concept of utility is personal - would Bill Gates take the 10 mil or do the coinflip?  A different decision than whether you or I would.

So I dont know how much utility 1k (your hedge value) has for you, that is something that you have to decide for yourself.

2.  Would you bet the bet you are thinking about if you didnt have the first bet?  Do you think TX is a good bet?  If so, you should bet it as you normally would, and if you dont you should not.

The fact that you already have a bet on Bama to win this game MEANS NOTHING and has NO TIE to whether you should bet more on bama, or bet TX.  They are totally separate wagers, and are not tied to each other in any way.

So basically, if the 1k has no utility to you - you should only bet TX if you like TX - and you should bet it for the amount that you would normally bet.  If you are a $100 per game bettor - you should bet 100 on TX.  I realize most covers posters are going to think this is ridiculous, and "whats the point of betting 100 on one side an 2k on the other".....  But I hope I explained this well enough that you understand why by now.

The two bets have nothing to do with each other unless you have utility in the first bet.

So lets update this list.....

With 6 games left, Im down 3 units.....

1.  Fresno -2.5 (.5 units) 
2.  UCF +2.5 (.5 units)
3.  BYU +2.5 (1.5 units)
4.  Utah +3 (2 units)
5.  SMU +15.5 (.5 units)
6.  Marshall +2.5 (1 unit)
7.  UNC +3 (4 units)
8.  BC +9 (1 unit)
9.  Kentucky +7.5 (3 units)
10.  Georgia -7 (1 unit)
11.  Miami -3 (5 units)
12.  BG -1.5 (.5 units)
13.  Temple +4 (2 units)
14.  AZ -1.5 (1 unit)
15.  Mizzou -6.5 (1.5 units)
16.  Air Force +4 (1 unit)
17.  Oklahoma -8 (1 unit)
18.  IAST +2.5 (2 units)
19.  TN +4.5 (3 units)
20.  AUB -7.5 (3 units)
21.  WVU -2.5 (.5 unit)
22.  LSU +2.5 (5 units)
23.  Oregon -3.5 (1 unit)
24.  FL -10.5 (1 unit)
25.  N Ill +6.5 (.5 unit)
26.  S Carolina -4.5 (2 units)
27.  Mississippi -3 (4 units)

Quote Originally Posted by wounded_duck:

Van - posts like  #191 should be the reason Covers forum exists BOL tonight on TT - one of my larger wagers of the season - square or not

Thanks - I have to overcome my handicapping as of late with something....

You said you value half points at 7.5c..... that an average?  That really wouldnt make sence i dont think if you are talking in average. Every half point would have an independant and different value based on the frequency a game lands on that number.  have you check out sbrs half point calculator? just wondering.....

better "luck" this year.  Like you said.... basic statistics

With 4 games to go, I am up 1 unit on bowls....

1.  Fresno -2.5 (.5 units) 
2.  UCF +2.5 (.5 units)
3.  BYU +2.5 (1.5 units)
4.  Utah +3 (2 units)
5.  SMU +15.5 (.5 units)
6.  Marshall +2.5 (1 unit)
7.  UNC +3 (4 units)
8.  BC +9 (1 unit)
9.  Kentucky +7.5 (3 units)
10.  Georgia -7 (1 unit)
11.  Miami -3 (5 units)
12.  BG -1.5 (.5 units)
13.  Temple +4 (2 units)
14.  AZ -1.5 (1 unit)
15.  Mizzou -6.5 (1.5 units)
16.  Air Force +4 (1 unit)
17.  Oklahoma -8 (1 unit)
18.  IAST +2.5 (2 units)
19.  TN +4.5 (3 units)
20.  AUB -7.5 (3 units)
21.  WVU -2.5 (.5 unit)
22.  LSU +2.5 (5 units)
23.  Oregon -3.5 (1 unit)
24.  FL -10.5 (1 unit)
25.  N Ill +6.5 (.5 unit)
26.  S Carolina -4.5 (2 units)
27.  Mississippi -3 (4 units)
28.  E Carolina +7.5 (.5 units)
29.  Tex Tech -8 (3.5 units)

30.  TCU -7.5 (2 units)
31.  G Tech -4 (2 units)
32.  C Mich -2.5 (.5 unit)
33.  Alabama -4 (2.5 units)

I have increased TCU unit size, and decreased GTech.

GL all

 Vanzack, it is a loss either way, but I think your Fresno -2' should read -10'.  That minor triviality out of the way, I see where if you just bet closing line, FIRST HALF bowl dogs out of YOUR LIST (LSU does not count as they were a small favorite at kickoff), you would be 9-3-2 vs the spread.  As long as you have been wagering, I'm surprised you don't look for value in the dog or pass altogether. 

1st half losers: CFU, UNC, and Ky

1st half pushes: Tenn(+3 as I bet them), BGreen(possibly a win.  1 point game dog was no worse than pick em 1st half, and possibly caught 1/2 point.  I didn't see line, but I will call it a push)

1st half wins: Utah, BYU, SMU, Marsh, BColl, Temp, Io St, No Ill, and ECU 

Short, sweet and smart.