Wazzu/ Colorado State

Question

Some interesting numbers here, specifically the Sagarrin ratings. Which it appears Washington State is much higher in mainly due to their strength of schedule.

Sagarrin rating for Wazzu: 78.96
Sagarrin rating for CSU: 64.58

A discrepancy of over 14 points. Generally speaking when comparing the spread to Sagarrain ratings I've seen it usually falls within 2 points or so. This is quite the gap.

Wazzu: #1 Strength of Schedule in the Nation
CSU: 106th

Total offense for Wazzu: 53rd
Total offense for CSU: 28th

Rushing offense for Wazzu: 123rd
Rushing offense for CSU: 31st

Passing offense for Wazzu: 4th
Passing offense for CSU: 29th

Total defense for Wazzu: 101
Total defense for CSU: 80th

Rushing defense for Wazzu: 84th
Rushing defense for CSU: 48th

Passing defense for Wazzu: 107th
Passing defense for CSU:109th

So Washington State can't run the ball and is dreadful defensively. They should be able to chuck it all day on Colorado State, and you'd figure a coach like Mike Leach with extra prep time will devise quite the gameplan. But I can't help think Colorado State will be able to run on Wazzu with will. Their lead back Kapri Bibbs is 8th in the nation in rushing.

What do you guys think?

Rocafella · Answer

Some interesting numbers here, specifically the Sagarrin ratings. Which it appears Washington State is much higher in mainly due to their strength of schedule.

Sagarrin rating for Wazzu: 78.96
Sagarrin rating for CSU: 64.58

A discrepancy of over 14 points. Generally speaking when comparing the spread to Sagarrain ratings I've seen it usually falls within 2 points or so. This is quite the gap.

Wazzu: #1 Strength of Schedule in the Nation
CSU: 106th

Total offense for Wazzu: 53rd
Total offense for CSU: 28th

Rushing offense for Wazzu: 123rd
Rushing offense for CSU: 31st

Passing offense for Wazzu: 4th
Passing offense for CSU: 29th

Total defense for Wazzu: 101
Total defense for CSU: 80th

Rushing defense for Wazzu: 84th
Rushing defense for CSU: 48th

Passing defense for Wazzu: 107th
Passing defense for CSU:109th

So Washington State can't run the ball and is dreadful defensively. They should be able to chuck it all day on Colorado State, and you'd figure a coach like Mike Leach with extra prep time will devise quite the gameplan. But I can't help think Colorado State will be able to run on Wazzu with will. Their lead back Kapri Bibbs is 8th in the nation in rushing.

What do you guys think?

WISEGUY36 · Answer

Huge schedule disparity between these two teams.
While I think you give Mike Leach too much credit as a
" mastermind of game planning " , this is an intriguing
match up . I'll have to take another look at this one.

Thanks for the information

mws · Answer

Wazzu&#x27;s run defense isn&#x27;t bad when you consider their opponents -- the teams that ran successfully against them were Auburn, Stanford, Oregon, ASU, and Arizona.

clubtnt · Answer

was looking at this game the other day, leaning over. leach is such a douche doubt he&#x27;ll call off the dogs.

thorpe · Answer

Weather could be a factor in this game.    Bad weather would favor Col St IMO.  Wash St is a lot better team.  Col St has some good results against some mediocre teams.

mws · Answer

Wash St is 4-0 ATS as a favorite, covering each game by 10&#x2B;.

Rocafella · Answer

Thanks for the feedback fellas.

packers1992 · Answer

well rocafella when the bowl matchups come out i like to look at both teams and see who they beat in terms of bowl eligible teams. Colorado State played bowl eligible teams and in those games they were 0-4 losing 3 of the 4 by DD. Hell the only 6 win team Colorado State beat was Cal Poly

WSU played 8 bowl eligible teams going 2-6 not a lot better but they did beat USC and Arizona. If i'm betting this game it would be WSU but the line as of now isn't where i'd like it. But give both teams/coaches credit for taking a nice job in year 2 of their regimes

BOL in the bowls rocafella

THEMUGG · Answer

1st bowl for Wazzu in 10 years............they will be thrilled to be there...........& as mentioned above, they played a much tougher schedule in a much tougher conf. so the #'s are a bit skewed.

TheBuddah · Answer

rocafella - great info. what you may want to do is go a couple of steps further. Meaning look at the opening line (donbest.com) it opened at 4.5 for washington st. What historically occurs when col st is better in two categories - total off, and total def. while wash. st is better in 2 categories - sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength with a spread around 4.5. I only bring this up because i went thru the same evolutionary process - looking at these numbers - and trying to make a decision on them. Not until i went further using the line along with games previously played with similar patterns did it start making sense and was able to pick some winners. The oddsmakers are smart - there is a reason the line opned at 4.5 not 12. These teams are playing on a neutral field - another thing to consider. Looking at this game:

Col st 28 80 88 106

4.5 Wash st 53 101 30 1

I call this a 2 WS/ 2 BS situation - ws stands for worst sagarin and the BS stands for better sagarin. Historically when you have this type of situation in the bowl games - the away team often gets the cover along with the su win. Not always but typically. Good luck to you.

TheBuddah · Answer

correction - away team meaning the top team - col st.

Rocafella · Answer

Buddah.  Appreciate your insight.  I&#x27;ve seen your posts before and certainly respect your opinions.

Crusher13 · Answer

CSU has been a rushing machine in the second half of their season sans the UTAH STATE game. They WILL get their rushing yards no matter what. Now on the other hand, the ole pirate Leach will be airing it out nonstop....OVER seems the more SMART play

I'm taking the points

DrStrangelove · Answer

Don&#x27;t underestimate the Pac-12 in the bowls. I think this conference was much stronger from top to bottom this year than people think. With the exception of a couple lines that are a little excessive, I think they do very well in the bowls this season.

Beningo88 · Answer

Cougars my big play for the early bowl games

thorpe · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by TheBuddah]  rocafella - great info. what you may want to do is go a couple of steps further.   Meaning look at the opening line (donbest.com) it opened at 4.5 for washington st.   What historically occurs when col st is better in two categories - total off, and total def. while wash. st is better in 2 categories - sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength with a spread around 4.5.    I only bring this up because i went thru the same evolutionary process - looking at these numbers - and trying to make a decision on them.  Not until i went further using the line along with games previously played with similar patterns did it start making sense and was able to pick some winners.  The oddsmakers are smart - there is a reason the line opned at 4.5 not 12.    These teams are playing on a neutral field - another thing to consider.  Looking at this game:&#xD;&#xA;      Col st      28  80  88   106&#xD;&#xA;4.5  Wash st   53  101   30   1&#xD;&#xA;I call this a 2 WS/ 2 BS situation - ws stands for worst sagarin and the BS stands for better sagarin.  Historically when you have this type of situation in the bowl games - the away team often gets the cover along with the su win.   Not always but typically.  Good luck to you.&#xD;&#xA;   [/Quote]The line actually opened at least 10.5 on 5 Dimes.  I have a bet on Col St at that number, and I am pretty sure I saw 11.5 or 12 briefly.

mws · Answer

I saw WSU -12 at 5Dimes.  That number seemed reasonable.

inthetank · Answer

Well, if it was that high at 5 dimes, then now 4.5 at most places, I actually had 3.5 at the outset, I think it's a "bait" to take WSU...Besides, and I may be wrong, but I take nearly all dogs from the beginning in bowl games....It's a different ball game now!....Good luck!....

Rocafella · Answer

You fellas sure you saw it open at that on 5 dimes?  Look at Covers&#x27; line movement history:5dimes.eu12/09/13 3:17:47 PM&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;4.5      (Open)That would be a hell of a move.

WISEGUY36 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Rocafella]  You fellas sure you saw it open at that on 5 dimes?  Look at Covers&#x27; line movement history:5dimes.eu12/09/13 3:17:47 PM&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;4.5      (Open)That would be a hell of a move.  [/Quote]Probably means that someone put 100 bucks downon CSU

Louis_IV · Answer

good info rock

ShadowWarrior · Answer

I saw Col. St. play us here personally.  They are a huge offensive line with a big pair of tight ends.   If their QB was better, they would be much better.  I saw all of our games and we were not over matched physically to every team other than say USC and we hung in with them and OR ST.  But vs COl. st. , I thought we were outsized and they overpowered us.  I know Wazzou beat USC, at USC and they played a tougher schedule but Col. St. did okay against our passing game.  If weather is an issue I would not go over in this game, play over in the USC vs Fresno game.  Fresno has no defense, Navy QB scored 7 rushing TDs in 3 OT against them.  We played all the teams mentioned here except WSU, we lost to all of them.

bk1374 · Answer

Wazzu to the bank!!!  bk

ShadowWarrior · Answer

Sorry, Navy QB did his scoring vs SJS who lost to Navy in 3 OTs  and the next week upset Fresno in their bid to go to a BCS Bowl.  USC has a lot of problems internally but I will not back FSU here,  maybe the over.

thorpe · Answer

Roca, I changed my bet size to make it more believable for Cover.

215373059-1

12/8/13 11:54pm

$33,000,000

$27,500,000

Pending

12/21/13 2:00pm College Football 201 Colorado State +10½ -120* vs Washington State

Wazzu/ Colorado State

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