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Week 1

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Legend
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Posted: #26

50 DAYS !!!!!!!!!    
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #27

48 DAYS

 
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Posted: #28
50 more days until Nebraska -21 covers! Lol! Just kidding- maybe!

Good to see you Wiseguy! My capping started a couple of days ago and I can’t wait until the season starts!!

GL this year!!
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by blowoutgm:

50 more days until Nebraska -21 covers! Lol! Just kidding- maybe!

Good to see you Wiseguy! My capping started a couple of days ago and I can’t wait until the season starts!!

GL this year!!




Hey  Buddy . Good to hear from you. I'm still looking
for a little more line movement on 3 plays before I
jump in with both feet.

I think the Huskers will do well this year. Hope they
can play some defense this season. 

Blessings and Good Luck , Bud 
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Legend
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Posted: #30

  47 DAYS !!!!!!!!  
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #31
Hope we see some Totals posted soon .
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Legend
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Hope we see some Totals posted soon .




I mention this due to the fact that IF I find greater
value playing on the total on a matchup , rather
than the side , my preference would be to play on
the total.
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Legend
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Posted: #33
FWIW , Injury reports are starting to fill out. I don't
know if Steele will do his update on his Blog this
season , so I'm updating rosters as news and injury
reports become available this year.

GL
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

FWIW , Injury reports are starting to fill out. I don'tknow if Steele will do his update on his Blog thisseason , so I'm updating rosters as news and injuryreports become available this year.GL

 

 

THNX Wise

 
Legend
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

FWIW , Injury reports are starting to fill out. I don't
know if Steele will do his update on his Blog this
season , so I'm updating rosters as news and injury
reports become available this year.

GL



For those who may not know about information
sources for news and injuries , you might try :

Injury Reports

donbest.com/ncaaf/injuries/


College Football News

vegasinsider.com/college-football/headlines/


If anyone on the Forum has other sources to
recommend , please feel free to post them.

GL
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:




For those who may not know about information
sources for news and injuries , you might try :

Injury Reports

donbest.com/ncaaf/injuries/


College Football News

vegasinsider.com/college-football/headlines/


If anyone on the Forum has other sources to
recommend , please feel free to post them.

GL




FYI , VaTech , Bama , and Rutgers have lost multiple
players to injury or dismissal this week. 

And It's only Wednesday!!!!     
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





FYI , VaTech , Bama , and Rutgers have lost multiple
players to injury or dismissal this week. 

And It's only Wednesday!!!!     



In addition to Rutgers losing 2 players this week ,
there is a report that as many as 8 players are
being investigated for credit card fraud.

This probably accounts for the line movement on
Rutgers yesterday.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:




In addition to Rutgers losing 2 players this week ,
there is a report that as many as 8 players are
being investigated for credit card fraud.

This probably accounts for the line movement on
Rutgers yesterday.




The key word here is " investigated " as no charges
have been filed in the matter at this time.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #39
Time for me to get to get busy on Week 1. Check
you injury reports.

Good Luck this season 
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Time for me to get busy on Week 1. Check
you injury reports.

Good Luck this season 



Correction
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Time for me to get busy on Week 1. Check
your injury reports.

Good Luck this season 




Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:




In addition to Rutgers losing 2 players this week ,
there is a report that as many as 8 players are
being investigated for credit card fraud.

This probably accounts for the line movement on
Rutgers yesterday.



Rutgers Line is continuing to drop  
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

In addition to Rutgers losing 2 players this week ,there is a report that as many as 8 players arebeing investigated for credit card fraud.This probably accounts for the line movement onRutgers yesterday.
Rutgers Line is continuing to drop

WISE you like the Over on rutgers?

 

 
Legend
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by NDguy12:

Rutgers Line is continuing to drop

WISE you like the Over on rutgers?

 





I don't know enough right now on that player situation
to make an accurate assessment.The fact that it has
moved close to - 14 without knowing the players who
are involved might make for a tempting opportunity.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





I don't know enough right now on that player situation
to make an accurate assessment.The fact that it has
moved close to - 14 without knowing the players who
are involved might make for a tempting opportunity.




It looks like it's been bought back up to 16' now.
Others probably thinking the same thing.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





It looks like it's been bought back up to 16' now.
Others probably thinking the same thing.




I do not see any value worth a wager on either side
of this matchup , but sometimes , an excessive line
correction can offer value . IMO ,There are better
plays on the board.
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Legend
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by NDguy12:

Rutgers Line is continuing to drop

WISE you like the Over on rutgers?

 






Absolutely Not. Betting a total on two crappy teams
is generally not likely to be a profitable play.
Betting them in Week 1, makes it even more unlikely.

GL  
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Posted: #48
FWIW , I prescreen every matchup on the Board
each week , looking for two things :

1. The Top 10 matchups that are likely to offer me the
    best " Value " vs what I project the line offered to
    me will be. Value MUST be present at a 67 % WP
    for me to make a wager.

2. The Top 10 matchups that are most likely to
    provide me with the most accurate result after
    going through the capping process.

Of those 10 that make the cut , I will only wager on
the 2 or 3 that offer me the highest measured win
probability. Selectivity leads to profitability.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posts: 34171
Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

FWIW , I prescreen every matchup on the Board
each week , looking for two things :

1. The Top 10 matchups that are likely to offer me the
    best " Value " vs what I project the line offered to
    me will be. Value MUST be present at a 67 % WP
    or better for me to make a wager.

2. The Top 10 matchups that are most likely to
    provide me with the most accurate result after
    going through the capping process.

Of those 10 that make the cut , I will only wager on
the 2 or 3 that offer me the highest measured win
probability. Selectivity leads to profitability.



Correction 
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
 
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Posts: 613
Posted: #50

Wiseguy - 

 

Thanks as always for your contributions and sharing to the general wisdom of the board. As we get closer to kickoff I look forward hopefully to more of your reasoning and your approach - how you make your power rankings, for example; how you assess various factors or situations you feel particularly important to note or that may arise.  What are the things that create value from your perspective?  I'm sure you have a lot to say on each of these subjects and more, so don't be afraid to go Dostoevsky on us here - more is better when you have something worthwhile to contribute and I (with many others I know) appreciate the education! an_cheers

GWJTF

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