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Week 1

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Legend
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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:

Wiseguy - 

 

Thanks as always for your contributions and sharing to the general wisdom of the board. As we get closer to kickoff I look forward hopefully to more of your reasoning and your approach - how you make your power rankings, for example; how you assess various factors or situations you feel particularly important to note or that may arise.  What are the things that create value from your perspective?  I'm sure you have a lot to say on each of these subjects and more, so don't be afraid to go Dostoevsky on us here - more is better when you have something worthwhile to contribute and I (with many others I know) appreciate the education! an_cheers

GWJTF





Thanks for your kind words , Bud. I've tried to share
some thoughts on the subject of capping and risk
management for this season on a number of other
preseason threads I have started. Check them out.
FWIW , I do not utilize " Power Ratings " as I do not
think they provide me with the reliable accuracy that I
need to establish a win probability on a matchup.
My method focuses on individual matchups and the
use of " Advanced Analytics " and " custom stats " to
to establish value and win probability. It's a lot of
work , but provides a much more reliable result.

Good Luck to You This season   
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posts: 34171
Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





Thanks for your kind words , Bud. I've tried to share
some thoughts on the subject of capping and risk
management for this season on a number of other
preseason threads I have started. Check them out.
FWIW , I do not utilize " Power Ratings " as I do not
think they provide me with the reliable accuracy that I
need to establish a win probability on a matchup.
My method focuses on individual matchups and the
use of " Advanced Analytics " and " custom stats " to
to establish value and win probability. It's a lot of
work , but provides a much more reliable result.

Good Luck to You This season   



And while it is a lot of work, the process is not really
" computer friendly " so it is time consuming as well
as each matchup must be evaluated manually.

Glad capping College Football is my only job. 

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 34171
Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:

Wiseguy - 

 

Thanks as always for your contributions and sharing to the general wisdom of the board. As we get closer to kickoff I look forward hopefully to more of your reasoning and your approach - how you make your power rankings, for example; how you assess various factors or situations you feel particularly important to note or that may arise.  What are the things that create value from your perspective?  I'm sure you have a lot to say on each of these subjects and more, so don't be afraid to go Dostoevsky on us here - more is better when you have something worthwhile to contribute and I (with many others I know) appreciate the education! an_cheers

GWJTF




Thanks again for your interest. I really can't go much
further into the details of the process. Hope you
understand.

FWIW , you asked me this very same thing in my
2015 Week 1 College Football thread.

You probably don't remember that , but I do.

Good Luck to you this College Football season.

GWJTF    

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posts: 34171
Posted: #54
GWJTF ,

The process of capping College Football varies so
greatly and is largely dependent on an individual's
knowledge of the sport and also their willingness to
devote their time and effort to the endeavor. Most
know the sport to some extent , but few are willing
to sacrifice the time required to learn and explore
just how to be a great deal more proficient at this.
My methods and the time that I'm willing to put in
to achieve my accuracy and win probability goals
each week are far more than most  would be willing
to go. There are many " stock " metrics that can
provide most bettors an adequate result for their
needs , and are readily available to the public, and
measuring value , to some extent , can be achieved.
Win probability , however is another matter.
Maybe some day when I'm done capping and have
achieved my goals , I'll write a book about this. 
Until then , limiting information on this subject is in
my best interest , as for the most part , the only
ones who seem interested in this are Bookmakers.

Thank you again for your kind words , and interest
in this subject.

I will continue to post information that I feel may be
helpful to the forum.

Please check out my other preseason threads.

The season will be here soon. 

Best of Luck this season , Bud. 

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posts: 34171
Posted: #55
FWIW , As the science of the game becomes more
complex , so does the bettors ability to measure
MOV and relative strength between opponents.

Weeks 1 - 3 are especially difficult each season due
to graduations , early entrants to the NFL draft ,
coaching / coordinator changes etc.
Some teams will look quite differently that they did
last season. Don't let last season's results be the
only basis for this season's assessment of any
particular program. Dig deeper. This is your edge
early in the season vs the books as well as the
" Computer Cappers " who help shape early lines.

GL     


Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posts: 613
Posted: #56

Wiseguy - 

I hear you re: the time and devotion it takes to be truly successful at any from of wagering.  Most of us on covers fall somewhere between the casual bettor and dedicated professional, including me.  I've lurked here for about ten years and have managed to actually win money two of the last three seasons - not a lot of money, but in the black which is better than most who do this.  I owe a good deal of that to perspectives and things I've learned to pay attention to from some of the best cappers on this forum; thus my repeated inquiries to those whose opinions I respect re: their reasoning and methods, rather than their 'picks.'  I learned the painful lesson years ago of betting others' picks without capping your own games utilizing methods you understand.  Thanks again for sharing with the board and best of luck in 2018!  

GW

 
Legend
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Posts: 34171
Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:

Wiseguy - 

I hear you re: the time and devotion it takes to be truly successful at any from of wagering.  Most of us on covers fall somewhere between the casual bettor and dedicated professional, including me.  I've lurked here for about ten years and have managed to actually win money two of the last three seasons - not a lot of money, but in the black which is better than most who do this.  I owe a good deal of that to perspectives and things I've learned to pay attention to from some of the best cappers on this forum; thus my repeated inquiries to those whose opinions I respect re: their reasoning and methods, rather than their 'picks.'  I learned the painful lesson years ago of betting others' picks without capping your own games utilizing methods you understand.  Thanks again for sharing with the board and best of luck in 2018!  

GW





You are very welcome . Bud . I actually mentioned
your 2105 Week 1 request to remind you that in
that thread , between my discussion with you , and
also Wheaty , there were some great points about
capping that were brought up for discussion.
You might want to go back and check it out .
It might prove helpful.

I rereading my post # 53 , it sure did not come off
well.  

My apologies    
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 34171
Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





You are very welcome . Bud . I actually mentioned
your 2105 Week 1 request to remind you that in
that thread , between my discussion with you , and
also Wheaty , there were some great points about
capping that were brought up for discussion.
You might want to go back and check it out .
It might prove helpful.

In rereading my post # 53 , it sure did not come off
well.  

My apologies    



Correction.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 34171
Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





You are very welcome . Bud . I actually mentioned
your 2015 Week 1 request to remind you that in
that thread , between my discussion with you , and
also Wheaty , there were some great points about
capping that were brought up for discussion.
You might want to go back and check it out .
It might prove helpful.

I rereading my post # 53 , it sure did not come off
well.  

My apologies    




That settles it. If I'm going to post , I've got to wear
my readers  

My keyboard skills could use some work. 
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
 
Legend
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Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 34171
Posted: #60
Just one more thing , if I may. I believe that if one
caps using " variables " such as trend data , look
aheads, sandwich games , etc. they are very likely
to achieve variable betting results.
This is counterproductive to ones ability to
accurately measure the efficacy of the capping
method used vs actual results so modifications can
be made to improve long term results.

OK , I'm done now . 

GLTA this season. 
 
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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