Week 1 college football

Hello all!  I'm new to this outfit, but I've been following for a few years now.  Been capping games for about 40 years now (yeah, I'm no spring chicken), and I'm looking forward to sharing opinions and picks with you all.  Without further ado, here are some games I'm eyeballing for Week 1.  

North Carolina +2' over MINNESOTA - Better team getting points?

FLORIDA +2 over Miami FL - Napier 9-2 as a short dog in his career.

NEBRASKA -27' over Utep - I don't normally like big favs, but I got a feeling....

SOUTH CAROLINA -19' over Old Dominion - If the 'Cocks wanna go bowling they can't afford to lose games like this.

Sam Houston +10' over RICE - Tough first year in the FBS for the Bearkats, but I liked the way they finished, and I love their coach.

Notre Dame +2' over TEXAS A&M - Love the pickup of QB Riley Leonard for the Irish, and again I think the wrong team is favored.

HAWAII +13' over UCLA - i liked it better at 17, but the 'Bows could be a live dog here.

KENTUCKY -26 over Southern Miss - 'Cats should take care of biz here.

Georgia St. +21 over GEORGIA TECH - Could be jet lag City for the 'Jackets.  

Usc +6 over Lsu - just a feeling.

@Boisestateand8

 I grabbed Hawaii early and got 16.5. It's such a tough spot for UCLA. They are on the road in an early kickoff start Hawaii time laying double digits with a new coaching staff and a lot of player turnover. Further, they have a bye week the following week. 

@Norton-Frickey

 Yeah, and Hawaii has a ton of experience returning.  The one thing that gives me pause is that I got burned taking them a year ago against a bad Stanford team, a week after they had an impressive outing at Vanderbilt in their season opener.  Obviously they gave the Cardinal a lot of game footage to go over.  If I'm Timmy Chang, the most important thing this weekend against FCS Delaware St. is get the win without giving UCLA much to look at on film.

These are all leans at this point.  I'll post actual plays on a separate thread next week.  Gonna take a long hard look at Georgia and Clemson too.  Leaning Dawgs.  Also, it was just announced here in Boise that Maddox Madsen will be the starting QB at Georgia Southern, instead of transfer Malachi Nelson.

Napier needs a fast start showing progress, let alone wins, as he is starting to feel the heat from lack of success (in terms of wins on the field).  The 'U' is on my crap list for how they handled the Manny situation a couple seasons ago - I hope he runs it up on the 'canes if the opportunity arises.  Manny found out about his termination over national tv, a few minutes after a message was left on his phone - that came from a radio and television station that covers Miami.  Although I can not get a third unknown source to verify it unrelated to others, I was told of this by two and, while won't say it's 100%, am of the belief that how they handled it was accurate/true. Football here is a 'religion'.  Hope you don't get snow until December.

Pressure is definitely on Napier, and he's got a brutal schedule to try and navigate.  Miami has a lot of talent, but I can't get that GT game out of my head from last year, when Mario Cristobal literally snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.  Seems like every year the 'Canes don't live up to the hype.  Maybe it'll be different this year, but the Gators absolutely need to take care of business in the Swamp if they're gonna get back to a bowl, and I think they get it done here.  Miami could lose this game and still have a great shot at the ACC Championship.

@Boisestateand8

Welcome and GL to you this season.  

@TheGoldenGoose

 Thank you sir.

@Boisestateand8

 I can't trust either Napier or Cristobal. I could see both losing their jobs this season.

@Boisestateand8

I'm actually using the jet lag to stay off the game in a spot I would otherwise lay the big points w/ GT.

I'm also loving NC here. A little concerning that the line keeps going up. I'm not sure what people see in this year's Gophers that's all that different from last year's disappointment. The defense wasn't great last year and I don't see much improvement this year. I just think UNC is all around better team. Faster and more dynamic. 

Good Luck  

@Norton-Frickey

 Very possible.

@DeadOnDannyK

 It'll be interesting to see how this FSU-GT game plays out.  I have no interest in playing it, although the line seems a little short to me.  If GT is competitive or wins outright against the 'Noles then Georgia St.  could be a value play next weekend in a potential flat spot for Tech.  And I'm in total agreement on the Tar Heels.

@Boisestateand8

I'll tail that Sam Houston play. Agree with the write up.   

Thank You and BOL on your card. 

@Coloneljim

 Many thanks and good luck to you as well! 

@Boisestateand8

 [Quote: SOUTH CAROLINA -19' over Old Dominion - If the 'Cocks wanna go bowling they can't afford to lose games like this. .[/Quote]

Huh? South Carolina can win by 3 or 18, and still not cover. -19 has nothing to do with "losing" the game. 

@FamousRy

 Tru dat!  I only listed them among my early leans because their O-line is a lot healthier than the first half of last season and Old Dominion's was just a flat out trainwreck, allowing 62 sacks and 105 tackles for loss.  They also ranked second to last in time of possession, so they have a lot of ground to make up.  I expect the Gamecocks to control this from start to finish behind new dual threat QB LaNorris Sellers, a 6'3" 240 pound beast.  And you can't count out the possibility of a special teams score with these guys under Shane Beamer.  It just feels like a win and cover for the other USC.

Must win for South Carolina...SC should have a solid D...and they will run the ball on offense...If this were to be a close game, SC will most certainly have a losing record and no bowl...I think its going to be a beat down...South Carolina 38 Old Dominion 10.   SC wins and covers...

@LonghornHoosier

Hawaii will beat UCLA.... 

@Bird4332

 Well they'll be a daisy if they do!  (Tombstone reference) 

Freshman Dylan Raiola, 6'3" 220 lbs, has been named the starting QB for Nebraska.  He's a 5* recruit that turned down Georgia to play under Matt Rhule in Lincoln.  By all accounts, he was very impressive during spring drills. After a long bowl dry spell I really think the 'Huskers are about to turn things around in Rhule's second year as their head coach.  In his first joint seasons with Temple, Baylor, and Nebraska he was 8-28 SU, but afterwards he went 44-23 SU and 41-22 ATS (from Playbook magazine) with those schools.  Last season the Nebraska QBs couldn't hit the ocean if they were standing on the beach, and I expect Raiola to be a HUGE improvement in the passing game.  This is one of the most experienced teams in the country going against an inexperienced UTEP team with a new head coach, Scotty Walden from FCS Austin Peay, who brings in a dozen transfers from his old school.  The line has stayed steady at 27', and at this point it's still a lean, but for me it's Nebraska or nobody.  Comments?

YES

Play it before it goes above 28 - it ain't gonna drop 

Some thoughts on Southern Miss at Kentucky.  If games are won in the trenches then the Wildcats should have their way in this one.  Bush Hamden (formerly of Boise St.) is the new OC under Mark Stoops, and he'll be looking to pick up the pace on a pedestrian offense.  Not sure who the QB will be, but probably Jr. Brock Vandagriff will be behind center, who is a dual threat type.  The strength of the offense is the line, and the strength of the team is the defense, one of the nation's best, which is strong at all three levels, especially the front seven. Southern Miss has talent, but there's Sun Belt talent and there's SEC talent, and the Golden Eagles are far less experienced than the 'Cats.  Just seems like Kentucky will wear these guys down for a comfortable win.  But will it be by Four TDs?  

@Boisestateand8

 I love the UTEP/Nebraska over 

@JoseAlonso787