Week 1 Lines are Up

Rickey, what are we going to do with you?  …. No, I am not kidding.  Believe it or not, this is a game that has been on my radar since I started my offseason reviews / PR# adjustments, etc.  My Dad coached with guys on both the NIU and BC staff.  I follow both teams closely, probably more so NIU.   I understand it is not a sexy pick.  But to take 6 seconds and say “BC sucks, man” and that is your full analysis is lazy capping in my opinion.  Ironic that you’re the one telling me to “Do better”.  My record the last few seasons posting on here is outstanding and speaks for itself.  You can take it or leave with any information or plays I post.

 Yes, BC did not have the athletes to stay with Virginia Tech, Clemson, Louisville, and Florida State; average score a whopping 6 - 50.5.  BC sucks, move on, right?  ….. No.  Somewhat similar to the Rutgers discussion in another thread, the fact that BC was destroyed by these high end programs, only adds value for BC when they play teams of similar quality where they can matchup athletically.  My last iteration of 2016 PR#s shows BC game results with an ATS margin of +5.0 ppg vs. their other 9 opponents.  Right around -20 ppg ATS margin for those other 4 games.  Clearly a power rating # is not one size fits all.  Another topic there for another day if I ever find the time to expand on PR#s, ATS margins, and vs. whom (I typically do a breakdown by vs. top 50, vs. #51-100, vs. >#100).  Back to the play.  Let’s look at NIU.  The HC, OC, and DC are all the same guys that my Dad coached with in 2012.  Both coordinators left and came back last year.  NIU’s 2016 wins were against Ball State, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan and Kent State.  When your best win is EMU, your program is heading in the wrong direction.

I cannot stress enough how important it is that QB Anthony Maddie did not get a 6^th year.  In case anyone missed it in their offseason updates, NIU expected to get a 6^th year medical redshirt for Maddie, but he was denied by the NCAA.  That announcement came this spring.  The remaining candidates to start at QB do not have the playmaking ability that QBs Hare or Maddie provided.  On top of that NIU loses its best WR (Kenny Golladay) and do not have a replacement on the roster with a similar skill set.  I think the NIU passing game will struggle in 2017.  The offense is going to try (even more so than usual) to be a run first team.  That relative strength for this offense does not match up well with BC as they were the #7 run D in the nation in 2016 at 108.5 ypg (*allowed 210.8 rushing ypg in the 4 big losses).  BC returns enough on each level of the defense to be solid again in 2017 vs. an opponent such as NIU.  BC DC Jimmy Reid has been a family friend since the mid-1980s.  He is an outstanding defensive coach that is not afraid to bring pressure (47 sacks in 2017—13 more than Don Brown’s 2016 BC defense).  Sidenote, Brown’s UM defense did have 46 sacks in 2016.  Anyway, similar style with bringing pressure on passing downs.   NIU lost LT Levon Myers to graduation.  Myers was a solid multi-year starter.   When he came in as a FR, Wisconsin did come on late in recruiting to try and convince him to stay home.  Whether or not a similar talent will replace him is an unknown for me, but I would not count on it.  Bottom line—I think the NIU offense will have trouble scoring on BC. 

I have yet to talk about when BC has the ball vs. NIU.  The NIU defense gave up 200 rushing ypg in 2016.  That figure was worse vs. non-conference opponents that could really run the ball.  NIU allowed 243, 293, and 278 rushing yards vs. Wyoming, USF, and San Diego State.  The 2016 front 7 was average at best is the point.  Combine that with NIU losing a high percentage of their front 7 depth, and I do not think they’ll slow down the BC running game enough to offset the BC defense vs. NIU offense matchup that favors BC.  Yes, the BC offense is less than impressive statistically, but they should have some success running the ball which is their M.O.  They will not need to score of ton of points to cover in this game.  I think it’s a relatively low scoring game.  BC low to mid 20s.  NIU, maybe 10-13 points, but even less certainly would not surprise me.

That’s it for now.  …. Try to be a positive asset to the forum.  And good luck this year.

TD