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Week 1 Lines are Up

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


Sounds like a good plan.  Best of luck with your lock Rickey.  

ha, you betcha.  I'm gonna rollllllll, as usual...
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

So BA - you think our Horns will be able to keep it within the number against USC...I think someone said it was at -12 in GOY.    I think our running game will be legit with Warren and our OL.   And if our freakish athletic WR's can catch the damn ball if it touches their fingers, then that will be good.  My only concern is the DB's.   Most are 4 star recruits, but will they be ready in week 2 against a legit potential 1st overall pick?     I am waiting to see how Texas comes out against Maryland...I think the public will be heavy on SC.  

Thanks for the advice.  Keep posting those value added links to good info!  Cheers and Hook em' LHH


STOP........talking about the match-up!

........pause for a second while I re-introduce you to the BA Big Picture handicapping.....tough to understand (for those that haven't played or coached especially)

SEEMS LIKE.....you were one of the doubters going against the ol' BA last year...... Miami at App St.....maybe your buddy Vegas Jason joined in as well.......forgot about that idiot ha
  "well hey wait a minute....they almost beat Tennessee away WTF.....they can handle Miami at home you're crazy!"

FLAW IN LOGIC HERE?......coaches can't get 100%+ effort EVERY game.......most importantly  INTENSE preparation each day the week of the game?......2-3X / year?.....maybe 4 ?
  *it took a great week of game prep + MAX effort vs the Vols.....to just stay close......what is the likelihood they're gonna do this again vs another NON-CONFERENCE opponent?......that REALLY needed a W?.....is the App St coach gonna risk injury to key players as well.....losing them for Sun Belt play?............

POINT:   Horns vs USC........ most everybody (except me and now you).....will think both teams will be equally motivated....thinking about GAME DAY.....being fired up!

  $$$$$    It ain't about game day.....it's about FOCUS and INTENSITY DURING PREPARATION.....USC is currently focused on TREE....they could care less about Texas (an average team since Colt got hurt basically).......TEXAS?....needs a STATEMENT win / strong effort  here.....they're thinking USC NOW
  *getting into Herman's head here a bit of course.....but his tremendous record as a dog suggests I'm right here
  *he's calling his defensive coaches at 2AM....."man you gotta figure out a way to get to Darnold and take his F'IN head off!.....I wanna see his diick in the f'in dirt !"................then glances over at those DD's..................................................................

Match-up?.....of course should somewhat support the play.....but I will be looking to play Texas for sure....how did freakin' Houston match-up vs OU last year?.....I thought the Cougars were gonna get rolled....no way they stop that running game ha
  $  value might be tough to come by is the problem.....unless Horns struggle early....Trojans roll....< hope so

If played at the end of last year?......raw numbers suggest 17 or more.....so 12-13' sounds about right.....?
  *BetOnline opener 14?............................ 
    
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Posted: #53
This thread is PHENOMENAL  


I could read TD and BA all day long  


Thanks fellas  
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

FAU  +17.....not a great spot for Navy usually.......
Rutgers  +31
Col St  +8    (GUB theory)
UTSA  +14'

????
Nevada +25
Georgia -14
Irish -13
Flashes +39'
Oreg St  +3 ??

Looks like a few guys at least considering dogs week 1.......
  *same knuckleheads looking for that EASY chalk $....LY fav were 18-22 ATS week 1.......< 20 12-16......20+  4-5......30+  2-1  

REMINDER:           'favorites' are NOT the play......but rather an offense so strong the defense will be helpless to stop 'em.....esp if combined with a strong D vs weaker O
  eg.  point-spread might be correct Georgia vs App St...but .I don't see how App St slows them down much.....don't see App St moving it much vs Georgia......Irish on deck maybe confuses the issue?



wassup TD.......................

Great to see you BA, I actually think Nevada could be a great ATS team this year, and Colorado State is one of my favorite teams week 1..
 
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Posted: #55
Anybody else thinking MTSU +8.5 at home against Vandy week one is looking good? MTSU has a lot coming back including Stockstill who passed for 3,000+ yards and 30+TDs, and James with 105 rec, 1600 yards and 12TDs. I wouldn't be surprised if they win outright but I really don't see Vandy coming to town and winning by double digits on opening night
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by Cookclay33:

Anybody else thinking MTSU +8.5 at home against Vandy week one is looking good? MTSU has a lot coming back including Stockstill who passed for 3,000+ yards and 30+TDs, and James with 105 rec, 1600 yards and 12TDs. I wouldn't be surprised if they win outright but I really don't see Vandy coming to town and winning by double digits on opening night

MikeMed has a thread going on this game...... I have not reviewed this game much yet (specifically have not looked at Vandy yet).  I can say that my final 2016 rating for MTSU was not as low as a lot of other rating systems; Sagarin, etc.  I did not penalize MTSU as much as others for the games when Stockstill was out (and they were pretty bad ATS margins vs. UTSA and Marshall -- even using final #s approximately -25 & -38 point margins ATS, respectively).  Anyway, I'm not much help yet on this one, but at a glance the Blue Raiders +8.5 may have some value.
 
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Posted: #57
TD,   Made my 2nd play for 2017.  I call all my early plays and leans BTC's (Baboon Throwing Crap)

1.  Jacksonville -4
2.  V. Tech -3

I'm holding off on futures and RSW's for now but am intrigued with V. Tech's team.  W. Virg tough but not like last year.  I think B. Conn. has it right @ V.Tech  -10.

Probably playing Rutgers -30.5 next. I think they can stick around with a 4 TD cushion but fear the Wash. defense.  I can see the possible 42-7 score.  B. Conn. saying -22.

Haven't done any work on FCS to speak of.  Has Port. St. got something?

 
 
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Posted: #58
BA

Re:
SEEMS LIKE.....you were one of the doubters going against the ol' BA last year...... Miami at App St.....maybe your buddy Vegas Jason joined in as well.......forgot about that idiot ha
  "well hey wait a minute....they almost beat Tennessee away WTF.....they can handle Miami at home you're crazy!"

I don't recall that...VJ wasn't my buddy, though I liked his passion, and my 2015 record speaks for itself...you have enlightened me on Texas against USC.   I think USC will have all they can handle against Stanford...But, what if USC loses to Stanford...Are you counting on a USC win in week 2?   r less, I may jump on that...So, do you think that Vince Young Show on January 6, 2006 won't be a motivator for Troy...I attended that game...I am sure Helton and the coaches will show them the film...But, I agree with you, I don't think it will mater.  USC may indeed beat my Horns, but they are going to have to earn it...


LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

BA

Re:
SEEMS LIKE.....you were one of the doubters going against the ol' BA last year...... Miami at App St.....maybe your buddy Vegas Jason joined in as well.......forgot about that idiot ha
  "well hey wait a minute....they almost beat Tennessee away WTF.....they can handle Miami at home you're crazy!"

I don't recall that...VJ wasn't my buddy, though I liked his passion, and my 2015 record speaks for itself...you have enlightened me on Texas against USC.   I think USC will have all they can handle against Stanford...But, what if USC loses to Stanford...Are you counting on a USC win in week 2?   r less, I may jump on that...So, do you think that Vince Young Show on January 6, 2006 won't be a motivator for Troy...I attended that game...I am sure Helton and the coaches will show them the film...But, I agree with you, I don't think it will mater.  USC may indeed beat my Horns, but they are going to have to earn it...



I was just thinking if that 2006 matchup would play any motivational factor for USC....  I can't imagine it would a lot, especially if USC skates by Stanford....   But I wouldn't mind hearing more opinions on the matter 
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

BA

Re:
SEEMS LIKE.....you were one of the doubters going against the ol' BA last year...... Miami at App St.....maybe your buddy Vegas Jason joined in as well.......forgot about that idiot ha
  "well hey wait a minute....they almost beat Tennessee away WTF.....they can handle Miami at home you're crazy!"

I don't recall that...VJ wasn't my buddy, though I liked his passion, and my 2015 record speaks for itself...you have enlightened me on Texas against USC.   I think USC will have all they can handle against Stanford...But, what if USC loses to Stanford...Are you counting on a USC win in week 2?   r less, I may jump on that...So, do you think that Vince Young Show on January 6, 2006 won't be a motivator for Troy...I attended that game...I am sure Helton and the coaches will show them the film...But, I agree with you, I don't think it will mater.  USC may indeed beat my Horns, but they are going to have to earn it...



I knew Horn fans would bring that game up...................NO

Here's how you can tell if you're starting to figure things out.....all due respect to 2015......................

IF......the Horns kill the Terps and SJSU...........you're FIRST inclination is to hammer them vs USC......you (probably) have a ways to go............
  *why?............your line value is gone mainly.....but also Tom has maybe put too much into winning these....when he should be holding back a bit......(emotion as well as scheme)....

IF......Texas just kinda looks OK the 1st 2.....not great / no glaring weaknesses.....VANILLA game plan as well......a BUSINESS like affair > like they have more important things ahead......USC spanks Tree maybe.........you don't flinch > stay with the PLAN .......NOW we're talking..............
  * a fair conclusion is that Tom is gearing them up for the Trojans..........why?.....because he knows WTF he's doing.....this is what great coaches do....last thing he wants is this huge home romp......everybody's dancing / going bezerk wtf ...........
  *that wife of his slinging those DD's all over the place.................

eggzample:   many guys bet Texas AT Cal LY.....laying 7+.....off a HUGE emotionally / physically draining revenge  win over N Dame....(seems like you were one of 'em) ....largely because Cal SUX.....and Texas has arrived!


and...............
$ 'passion'......from 'challenged' folks does not impress me.... sorry
  *this is a wagering forum not Special Olympics...........  



note:      .glaring weaknesses can call the bet off sure.....if Texas can't run at all / getting pushed around in the trenches.....and / or their pass D just looks horrible....can't get pressure .....QB looks awful.......
   ****  it IS possible they have fallen TOO far to be ready to compete week 3 with USC......you bet
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Posted: #61
TD21,   Just saw B.C. down to -2.5 at 5Dimes ??  I'll take some of that and worry about why the drop later.

Congrats on your scholastic success.     Doc 
 
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Posted: #62
Dammit South Florida went from -21 to -25 already... I think Notre Dame -11, FAU +28, Wyoming +11.5, Nevada +28.5
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:

TD21,   Just saw B.C. down to -2.5 at 5Dimes ??  I'll take some of that and worry about why the drop later.

Congrats on your scholastic success.     Doc 

Pecador, I didn't have a chance to post last night.  I saw the GOY thread yesterday right after work, so went to check 5D and saw that some week 1 lines had moved as well.  ......took about 12 seconds to think about it then added another 1 unit on BC -2.5.  Don't make me put up the Jimmy Reid and TD picture and go on about how he's the smaaaahtest (Boston accent) defensive coordinator out there.

And thanks!  .... That test was a royal f'cking pain in the @ss to get ready for over the course of a couple months.  Glad its over.  Glad I passed.


 
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Posted: #64
I'd take Louisville -27 and prob the over... Colorado State -2, UCF -21 vs FIU, South Carolina +8, USC -22, Boise -5, FSU +4.5
 
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Posted: #65
Week 1 card:

Boston College -3 (2.5u) & added -2.5 (1u) -- 3.5u total, think I'm done betting that one.     ...my thoughts on this game are in post #33.

Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u)   8/26 vs. Chattanooga
Portland State +31 & +32 (1u)   (0.5u each for the record)
Added:  Buffalo +28 (1u)

Rutgers +31.5 (0.5u)


Looking into a few GOY lines still.  And there's a few week 1 games that I'm ready for Totals to come out and should have a few plays.  ........ but, I'll have to wait a couple months there.

Best of luck all,


TD

 
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Posted: #66
BA - I concur on Texas.   I am not on them against the Terps, though I think they will destroy the Aztecs.     I realize if they blow those two out, then some of the value against the trojans will be diminished.  Its just a lean now.  

What's your take on BC v. NI?  

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Posted: #67
TD, for you and guys like Al, I apologize for the bullxxxx going on at this fine network with thumb suckers who seem not to care.

No doubt to my gang each of you are TRUE college football lovers.  It's ashamed that one privileged, selfish poster even considers what could be/once was the best CFB forum on the net be at risk because he's SPECIAL.

Hell, I'm SPECIAL, you are SPECIAL, but the difference is we love college football and not our selfish interest.

Welcome the thumb suckers.     


 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:

TD,   Made my 2nd play for 2017.  I call all my early plays and leans BTC's (Baboon Throwing Crap)

1.  Jacksonville -4
2.  V. Tech -3

I'm holding off on futures and RSW's for now but am intrigued with V. Tech's team.  W. Virg tough but not like last year.  I think B. Conn. has it right @ V.Tech  -10.

Probably playing Rutgers -30.5 next. I think they can stick around with a 4 TD cushion but fear the Wash. defense.  I can see the possible 42-7 score.  B. Conn. saying -22.

Haven't done any work on FCS to speak of.  Has Port. St. got something?

 

Portland State was a surprise playoff team in 2015.  Ran the ball well on offense (10th in the nation or so).  Graduation hit hard, especially on defense.  A regression was expected in 2016.  Then..... Portland State had two players die unexpectedly in the offseason (1 apparent overdose and 1 due to complications from a surgery).  Also, another player's toddler son was killed (struck by a car).  This was a team that was emotionally on empty!  The defense played alot of new guys including true freshmen and jumped from allowing 22 ppg in 2015 to allowing 39 ppg in 2016.  For 2017 they should be improved to 6-5 or so (they do open with two FBS teams -- both will be losses).  2017 team returns 7 starts on both O & D.  The deepest position groups are the O-line (69 career starts return) and the Secondary.  WR could be a solid position too with last year's leading returnee Adams back from injury that cost him most of 2016.  The QB that was beat out two years ago by FBS transfer Alex Kuresa has played WR since then. If he does not start at QB (moved back this spring) he'll play WR again.  The front 7 on D needs to improve.  But one of their better DTs was only a FR last year and they did sign a JUCO LB to help.  I think they have enough back and a better mindset this year to stay within the #.

Another big reason I like Portland State has to do with BYU.  HC Sitake is a defensive guy who doesn't mind an ugly low scoring game (3-10 O/U in his 1st year).  I think Sitake is the type that would prefer to win 24-3 and physically manhandle the other team rather than win say 56-28.  Against a Big Sky opponent last year (Southern Utah), the score in the 2nd half was 6-0.  He did not run up the score.  And this year, is BYU really going to show their hand against Portland State with their ridiculous schedule the next 3 weeks (LSU, Utah, and Wisconsin).... I personally do not think so.  And BYU is breaking in new WRs which matches up somewhat favorably (relatively speaking) for the Portland State secondary which has plenty of returning experience.  I think the way this bet potentially goes south is if BYU gets a shutout, say, 35-0.  But I think it's going to be more like 31-10 ish.  BYU will get a solid win and move on to LSU.  Portland State will keep it within the number then move on to  .... Oregon State.  I actually think Oregon State beats them worse than BYU.  Tough for an FCS school to play two physical FBS teams back to back.


 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

BA - I concur on Texas.   I am not on them against the Terps, though I think they will destroy the Aztecs.     I realize if they blow those two out, then some of the value against the trojans will be diminished.  Its just a lean now.  

What's your take on BC v. NI?  


LHH, just FYI (and you may already know this from your new 5D account ), but the GOY line is up for Texas at USC.  It opened there at -11.5.
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:

TD,   Made my 2nd play for 2017.  I call all my early plays and leans BTC's (Baboon Throwing Crap)

1.  Jacksonville -4
2.  V. Tech -3

I'm holding off on futures and RSW's for now but am intrigued with V. Tech's team.  W. Virg tough but not like last year.  I think B. Conn. has it right @ V.Tech  -10.

Probably playing Rutgers -30.5 next. I think they can stick around with a 4 TD cushion but fear the Wash. defense.  I can see the possible 42-7 score.  B. Conn. saying -22.

Haven't done any work on FCS to speak of.  Has Port. St. got something?

 

Meant to add, my initial thought was VT as well.  But will probably lay off.  Alot of new starters for both teams.  VT defense should be solid and may need to carry the offense early in the year.
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


LHH, just FYI (and you may already know this from your new 5D account ), but the GOY line is up for Texas at USC.  It opened there at -11.5.

Thanks TD.   I am a Heritage guy.    I am hopeful for my Horns this season, but I need to see the result on the field  Herman has more talent to work with this season, but, those SMU and Navy losses by Houston from last season bother me...I think OU is overrated, again (and Steele has not even come out yet, a notorious OU over-hyper...)...I think Ok St may be underrated, and I think Kansas St. will be in hunt for the conference title...I think Texas is at least 2 years away from returning to a sustainable top 10...but, if we beat USC at their house, all bets are off...we could run the table, but my "homer" Longhorn delusion is kicking in...Cheers!  
LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #72
Thanks TD.   I am a Heritage guy................


eg.

SO.....you're OFFERED BC at 2'......you turn it down > watch it cross 3.....bet it game week at Heritage at 4-5.......because Heritage is your buddy?
  *seems to me 5Dimes / BetOnline wants to be your buddy......a bit more

IF.....a serious INVESTOR......eggsplain this logic please ????

SWEAR TO GOD......1st time I catch you doing this I'm gonna start a thread ..."Is LHH.....actually Vegas Jason?"................... 
  *pause....while I explain why a slot receiver (that runs shorter routes)...might have a lesser yds/catch...than a WR that runs deeper routes........  
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

Thanks TD.   I am a Heritage guy................


eg.

SO.....you're OFFERED BC at 2'......you turn it down > watch it cross 3.....bet it game week at Heritage at 4-5.......because Heritage is your buddy?
  *seems to me 5Dimes / BetOnline wants to be your buddy......a bit more

IF.....a serious INVESTOR......eggsplain this logic please ????

SWEAR TO GOD......1st time I catch you doing this I'm gonna start a thread ..."Is LHH.....actually Vegas Jason?"................... 
  *pause....while I explain why a slot receiver (that runs shorter routes)...might have a lesser yds/catch...than a WR that runs deeper routes........  

Vegas Jason......lol

 
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Posted: #74
The Oregon State @ Colorado State matchup is intriguing.

Should be lots of optimism in Corvallis, but the QB situation is still an issue. Anderson has recruited some talent, but the big prospect QB he signed out of the Bay Area wont be active until 2018. That is a problem.

CSU is opening a new stadium, coming off of a winning season with some talent back.....

I would think that the line will end up being in OSU's favor as bettors take the Pac 12 squad, but this game has alot of advantages for CSU. 

I think you will be able to get CSU + money by kickoff, and that may be a solid play. 
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


Portland State was a surprise playoff team in 2015.  Ran the ball well on offense (10th in the nation or so).  Graduation hit hard, especially on defense.  A regression was expected in 2016.  Then..... Portland State had two players die unexpectedly in the offseason (1 apparent overdose and 1 due to complications from a surgery).  Also, another player's toddler son was killed (struck by a car).  This was a team that was emotionally on empty!  The defense played alot of new guys including true freshmen and jumped from allowing 22 ppg in 2015 to allowing 39 ppg in 2016.  For 2017 they should be improved to 6-5 or so (they do open with two FBS teams -- both will be losses).  2017 team returns 7 starts on both O & D.  The deepest position groups are the O-line (69 career starts return) and the Secondary.  WR could be a solid position too with last year's leading returnee Adams back from injury that cost him most of 2016.  The QB that was beat out two years ago by FBS transfer Alex Kuresa has played WR since then. If he does not start at QB (moved back this spring) he'll play WR again.  The front 7 on D needs to improve.  But one of their better DTs was only a FR last year and they did sign a JUCO LB to help.  I think they have enough back and a better mindset this year to stay within the #.

Another big reason I like Portland State has to do with BYU.  HC Sitake is a defensive guy who doesn't mind an ugly low scoring game (3-10 O/U in his 1st year).  I think Sitake is the type that would prefer to win 24-3 and physically manhandle the other team rather than win say 56-28.  Against a Big Sky opponent last year (Southern Utah), the score in the 2nd half was 6-0.  He did not run up the score.  And this year, is BYU really going to show their hand against Portland State with their ridiculous schedule the next 3 weeks (LSU, Utah, and Wisconsin).... I personally do not think so.  And BYU is breaking in new WRs which matches up somewhat favorably (relatively speaking) for the Portland State secondary which has plenty of returning experience.  I think the way this bet potentially goes south is if BYU gets a shutout, say, 35-0.  But I think it's going to be more like 31-10 ish.  BYU will get a solid win and move on to LSU.  Portland State will keep it within the number then move on to  .... Oregon State.  I actually think Oregon State beats them worse than BYU.  Tough for an FCS school to play two physical FBS teams back to back.



TD. Very insightful. Good post here 
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